Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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haemitite said:
iron ore sentiment is bullish, predictions have recently moved from price rollovers from 1 Apr to at leat a 10% increase.
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There's been some positive iron ore predictions by brokers. Good for BHP... but the Chinese are not going to be happy at all! If they were furious about not having a major say in the last contract negotiations, imagine what they're going to be like trying to get a price rollover, not to mention a decrease.
 
Demand is that high, the Chinese are mining 10% grade ore. They are moving six times as much dirt as BHP to get their vital steel inputs.

They will pay more for our ore than last year. When you consider where the cost curve has moved to, they probably should be paying up.
 
No doubt all true but on my homemade chart BHP s/p is trending down.
As it stands atm looks to be some support around 2730 and resistance around 2820. Longer timeframe a return to 2460 or so looks distinctly do-able.
But then I'm hopeless at charting so this analysis is worth about what it costs (or less).

ice
 
BSD said:
Demand is that high, the Chinese are mining 10% grade ore. They are moving six times as much dirt as BHP to get their vital steel inputs.

They will pay more for our ore than last year. When you consider where the cost curve has moved to, they probably should be paying up.
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Wow that's pretty desperate of them huh!

So what about the new supply that is coming into the market from India? I read about it a few weeks ago but it seems that it's not going to be enough.
 
ice said:
No doubt all true but on my homemade chart BHP s/p is trending down.
As it stands atm looks to be some support around 2730 and resistance around 2820. Longer timeframe a return to 2460 or so looks distinctly do-able.
But then I'm hopeless at charting so this analysis is worth about what it costs (or less).

ice
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Short term has been trending down. Long term up. Above 200d ma is positive. I generally agree with your support and resistance levels.
 

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I think its common knowledge that BHP is pretty much held by every institution. How much at one point in time determines the share price. It is not determined by the average punter, but where a bunch of economist see everything heading.

When BHP dips, insutitions back the truck up. I think at current prices its still cheap.

The $30 mark is a physcological level which will be a price that people will doubt whether it can hold.

I believe it will hang in between the $28 mark and $26 range.

When it makes its break for $30 it will be down in fast fashion.

So holding I think is better than waiting for the break incase you miss out.
 
At least we know one person is keen to get in before this next run in the sp - David Tweed:

LONDON (Dow Jones)--BHP Billiton Thursday warned shareholders about about unsolicited offers to purchase BHP Billiton shares.

A company called 'Direct Share Purchasing Corporation Pty (DSPC) has written to BHP Billiton requesting a copy of our share register, BHP said in a letter to shareholders.

"We understand that this company is associated with Mr David Tweed", BHP said.

"Tweed is mentioned frequently in the media for making offers to the holders of small parcels of shares in listed companies", BHP said in the letter.
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That managed to find its way into MarketMaker's live news feed!

For BHP, today was an indication that perhaps most of the selling pressure has gone. Overnight, base metals were down, yet BHP was well supported at about $27.52, rising on both occasions it fell to that level.
 
Personally I've traded out of my midcaps, Nickle ones a few weeks back and Zinc plays this week. Gains have been terrific but they seem to be reaching fair value ATM.

I feel that the last month in the market has been quite unusual with the well valued midcaps leading the way out of the June correction and July/August sideways abortion. BHP has consolidated but is way off the mark.

BHP amounts to a large proportion of the materials index, but is still lagging. I'm more confident in the outlook for commodities (post June) and BHP catching up and running shortly, its way undervalued ATM.

So hence putting some of my profits into more accumalation of BHP during its SP dips has been my play, surely its going to run soon.
 
i have a lot of confidence in giving bhp my hard earned.

they wouldnt be buying back there own shares if they thought it was over valued.....

BHP will rise when dividend comes around....

will be $30 by january.
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Personally I've traded out of my midcaps, Nickle ones a few weeks back and Zinc plays this week. Gains have been terrific but they seem to be reaching fair value ATM.

I feel that the last month in the market has been quite unusual with the well valued midcaps leading the way out of the June correction and July/August sideways abortion. BHP has consolidated but is way off the mark.

BHP amounts to a large proportion of the materials index, but is still lagging. I'm more confident in the outlook for commodities (post June) and BHP catching up and running shortly, its way undervalued ATM.

So hence putting some of my profits into more accumalation of BHP during its SP dips has been my play, surely its going to run soon.
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Yeah, I would definately be accumulating BHP atm. I think what many people don't realise is that the All Ords and ASX200 have both gone on to make new highs whilst BHP and RIO are still well down on their May highs. I think the market will ease up in the next week or two and then BHP/RIO will take the market onto even higher highs.

Btw FBINAW, when are you looking to get back in on the zinc and nickel stocks? I got in on CBH and KZL today but I'm afraid it could turn nasty very quickly.
 
scsl said:
Yeah, I would definately be accumulating BHP atm. I think what many people don't realise is that the All Ords and ASX200 have both gone on to make new highs whilst BHP and RIO are still well down on their May highs. I think the market will ease up in the next week or two and then BHP/RIO will take the market onto even higher highs.

Btw FBINAW, when are you looking to get back in on the zinc and nickel stocks? I got in on CBH and KZL today but I'm afraid it could turn nasty very quickly.
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I don't think Nickle or Zinc stocks will turn nasty, their just ripe for a correction although Zinc is still looking strong for longer. IMHO the last couple of days have thrown a decent indicator and it won't take much for the bulls to lose momentum and the bears gain the upperhand for a shortlived decent correction.

Personally I'll get back into KZL, ZFX and MRE,MCR and SMY at a pullback, IMHO I think we are only days away from one. I still hold some of the above though, just out of my trading portfolio ATM on these.

After the correction I am of the opinion that BHP will run and drag the midcaps back up with it. That's just just my theory as due to BHP's weighting of the materials index, a run now would put ridiculous gains on the index.

I'd get out of 'U'phoria too, don't get caught with your pants down. I reckon PDN is the goer though!.
 
A small article in the Fin has some dude claiming RIO is a better buy than BHP atm due to BHP being more of an oil play, and oil going down/sideways recently. (might explain why RIO has outperformed recently) Not sure what price he was using to make a call on BHPs profits on oil, but I am sure their projections are on oil way below current spot. Oils long term going up, and if it hangs around $60 for the next few months then BHP will be the one to own not RIO. Probably a smart play to have both actually, if you're stronger for longer.
 
bhp is very undervalued atm. possible reasons for the lag in their SP? copper production down 19 %? strike in chile, maintenance at Olympic, july sale of Tintaya

They have not yet tested their may high, yet nickel prices have gone nuts, they sit on uranium, ore price is steady, and they have earnings streaming from almost every commodity out there.

bhp also has investments of around one billion dollars in projects around the globe. these include 2 in the feasibility stage and hundreds more in early stage assessments.

emerging/developing economies shall mean a continued demand for commodities for at least another two years. China, india, japan to name the major players.

Tech/A: charting: will take time to move through 29 - 30 resistance, especially with the up and coming market correction (it will happen very shortly). After moving through 29 - 30 selling pressure SP will test the may high. If succesful a decent SP percentage increase lurks....

BHP a very low risk investment, with massive leverage advantages and very respectble gains. my prediction: 35 dollars thereabouts by mid 2007
 
Did i mention they have been buying their own shares?? when a company feels this the best way to spend its cash it is an expremely good sign. :)
 
mildew79 said:
Did i mention they have been buying their own shares?? when a company feels this the best way to spend its cash it is an expremely good sign. :)
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Mildew you shold also mention the upside they will get from the extensvive drilling program they re undertaking around Oly Dam. The aim is to significantly increase the copper and uranium reserves there. From what I've read, this is going to be completed around Jan/Feb, so this will be a massive boost for the company, partcularly on the uranium side. Spot price will probably be around $65 by then at this rate.

If I may add from their web site:

Imagine ...

BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam mine is already big. It is the world's fourth largest copper deposit, the largest uranium deposit and also produces more gold and silver than most other mines in Australia. It is the biggest underground hard rock mine in Australia. It is already complex. The polymetallic resource yields copper, uranium, silver and gold. The process route employs both hydrometallurgical and pyro-metallurgical techniques on a significant scale to extract refined copper, silver and gold metal and uranium oxide. All this on-site at Olympic Dam situated 570 kilometres north-west of South Australia's capital, Adelaide.

Now think bigger

The proposed expansion, which is likely to see operations converted to open pit, will be one of the biggest of its type in the world. Establishing the open pit will require the removal of around a million tonnes of over burden every day for four years. Once completed, the expanded mine will produce around 40 million tonnes of ore to the new processing plant each year. The plant will produce significantly more metal in each of the commodity groups using similar technologies to those currently employed. The Prefeasibility Study, which is now underway, will take two years to complete. The study will produce an estimate of the capital cost of the expansion.

There are around 20 diamond drill rigs on site now. They are carrying out resource definition drilling to infill the resource model that underpins the Prefeasibility Study. There is also a large geotechnical program as well as sterilisation drilling to determine final positions of infrastructure. Specialised rigs are probing the depth of the ore body with some holes planned to go more than two kilometres deep.

An Environmental Impact Study is being produced as part of the project to analyse the projected impacts of the expansion. One impact will be the growth of the town of Roxby Downs, where most mine and plant employees are based. It is expected that the town will more than double in size to a population of about 10,000.



I had to put the 20 diamond rigs in bold. Most companies struggle to get their hands on just one!!!!!
 
Overnight commods have crippled the Big Australia (plus). Ouch, off $1.00 tumbling through important $27.00 and 200d ma.

Perhaps Ducati was right!

Or, is it going to be a buying opportunity?
 

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mildew79 said:
Did i mention they have been buying their own shares?? when a company feels this the best way to spend its cash it is an expremely good sign. :)
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This is true only sometimes. Some companies buy back shares deliberately to hide a fall in earnings and only quote Earnings Per share not actual earnings. Most Australian companies buy back shares not because they actually care about increasing our share as investors but because they can't find any better alternatives. By the way I love share buy backs don't get me wrong but I think most Australian companies do it as a self preservation mechanism when rates go up and projects die down.
 
If you ask me, it looks almost like a double top, and has gapped, I expect it to loose again tomorrow to around $26.40, or less, and after that it may break down to $26 resistance....then who knows......it'll either pop back up or continue a little lower say a low of $25.70....then it may be a great buying opp.......just my opinion.
 
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