Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

well the bigger players have the opportunity to short-sell ( not just affect the same result via options ) a large player may decide to borrow ( or sell an existing holding ) , sell and buy back cheaper ( and if they chose a larger parcel )

usually my best option ( should i chose to enlarge the holding ) is to buy smaller parcels as the share price slides and slides

now i have seen comments about future dividends being cut back ( and that is not deliberately unfair ) but i do wonder about the timing

i think the share price will languish but that will only reflect a cooling global economy and the slowdown in demand that results from that cooling

and as @qldfrog likes to point out .. BHP makes quite a few stumbles
The only thing we're sure of is that SP will go up and down and history shows it goes up more than down.

So the only thing in our control is to make sure you don't hang onto a company that will go defunct.

Unless you have access to inside information everything else is crystal ball stuff, most of the information that retail gets comes from the market makers themselves. It's the typical story of the wolves amongst the sheep.
 
The only thing we're sure of is that SP will go up and down and history shows it goes up more than down.

So the only thing in our control is to make sure you don't hang onto a company that will go defunct.

Unless you have access to inside information everything else is crystal ball stuff, most of the information that retail gets comes from the market makers themselves. It's the typical story of the wolves amongst the sheep.
well i am investing in BHP on the logic it is too big to ( be let ) fail

but crikey , they seem to be trying hard ( to fail )

one might have thought between the OZL deal and Olympic Dam they had enough copper for 20 years or more ( the dig up and sell )

i suppose next they will try to buy RIO again ( before Glencore tries again )
 
well i am investing in BHP on the logic it is too big to ( be let ) fail

but crikey , they seem to be trying hard ( to fail )

one might have thought between the OZL deal and Olympic Dam they had enough copper for 20 years or more ( the dig up and sell )

i suppose next they will try to buy RIO again ( before Glencore tries again )

Lots of copper around the world.

List of 10 Highest Copper Producing Countries​

  1. Chile
  2. Peru
  3. DR Congo
  4. China
  5. United States
  6. Russia
  7. Indonesia
  8. Australia
  9. Zambia
  10. Mexico

 
Lots of copper around the world.

List of 10 Highest Copper Producing Countries​

  1. Chile
  2. Peru
  3. DR Congo
  4. China
  5. United States
  6. Russia
  7. Indonesia
  8. Australia
  9. Zambia
  10. Mexico

yes indeed

but if you already have two major assets in close proximity and both with room for expansion do you really need to go shopping

keeping in mind OZL had interests in several other junior explorers/brownfield miners
 
Lots of copper around the world.

List of 10 Highest Copper Producing Countries​

  1. Chile
  2. Peru
  3. DR Congo
  4. China
  5. United States
  6. Russia
  7. Indonesia
  8. Australia
  9. Zambia
  10. Mexico

The offshoot of most copper mining is gold, a mine that I used to work at, the gold section paid for the copper production at one stage.
 
yes i originally bought into Oz Minerals as a gold play

maybe AIS can mine enough gold to pay for the copper and zinc assets they hope to develop

but BHP needs to get efficiency back into the plan instead of buying 'every biggest ever resource discovered' and then try to develop it
 

BHP Shares Up As Bonus Offer To Escondida Miners Reported​



i hold BHP

well i wasn't rushing to add extra BHP anyway

i will keep looking to add to existing iron ore mining positions in other companies
 

BHP Workers at Top Copper Mine Go on Strike After Talks Fail

August 13, 2024 at 8:38 PM GMT+10
  • Union members at Chile mine will begin stoppage on Tuesday
  • Workers rejected terms including signing bonus of $28,900 each
Workers at BHP Group’s Escondida mine in Chile will begin a strike Tuesday after failing to reach a wage agreement, setting the stage for a stoppage at the world’s biggest copper operation.

The union’s 2,400 members will down tools at 8 a.m. Chile time after rejecting BHP’s proposal for a new three-year labor contract following five days of mediated talks, the union said in a statement.

The action will halt an operation that accounts for about 5% of all the world’s mined copper, disrupting shipments for Melbourne-based BHP, while potentially easing pressure on copper futures that have slumped in recent months along with dimming prospects for the global economy.

Escondida churns out more than 1 million metric tons a year, making it by far the biggest supplier of copper. Some analysts see BHP Group overtaking Codelco this year as the top global copper producer.

While collective bargaining in Chile is often marked by brinkmanship and last-minute agreements, Escondida has been the scene of lengthy stoppages in the past, including a 44-day strike in 2017.

BHP didn’t immediately provide a comment.

Benchmark copper traded in London surged to record levels in May as bullish investors placed bets on shortages. That emboldened unions seeking a share of the windfall for their members. But prices have since pulled back by roughly 19%, undermining some of that leverage as companies look to avoid big increases in fixed costs in a cyclical and capital-intensive business.

Still, negotiations come at a time of global tightness of copper concentrate — the raw material produced at Escondida and used to feed smelters — even though the market for refined metal is well supplied for now.

On the final day of mediated talks, BHP had offered a signing bonus of 27 million pesos ($28,900) per worker, as well as improvements in benefits. Workers had sought a bonus of more than 30 million pesos and a share of profit.
1723548174952.png
 
So that's a break of $40 today. I have been taking $42 as the important support that was confirmed as broken but for some reason that I can't discern 'Market Matters' has been citing $40 as support and the level at which they are interested in buying. Go figure.
No chartist would buy the current chart imo.

News flow not great lately with the Chilean communist unions going in for another perennial bite at Escondida. This time they want profit sharing as well, lol.

Held
Holding

DAILY
big (42).gif
 
i tend to agree , i think if we see 40 that 38 is probable and i see 40 as probable . Lot of outgoings forseeable re BHP in next period or 2 . I think this takeover is dead in the water now also . Re this tailings dam thing BHP time to pay the piper is soon and given the SH class action the size of that is yet to be determined
Fair to say BHP getting to a very key level atm being down 24% from highs . Earnings on Aug 27 pivottal is an understatement .






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Earnings revisions are falling away in last month and i see Goldman has withdrawn coverage in last couple weeks . Stormy weather ahead ( sorry Captain ;-) ) .... I think next earn report will shine a light on the road ahead on Aug 27th with an operating update on July 17th possibly giving some into . The 2 key dates going forwards outside any class action updates
Earnings revisions steadied and suggesting all will be well next year , cant say i am as ebullient as the analysts at this stage . Back to Aug 27 . BHP certainly due for a relief rally but will it stick a low that lasts for the ' buy and hold ' crowd . NFI . More risk buying pre earnings here but potentially where the largest reward lies . Lots of questions not so many answers . Good luck to all


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Fair to say BHP getting to a very key level atm being down 24% from highs . Earnings on Aug 27 pivottal is an understatement .






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Earnings revisions steadied and suggesting all will be well next year , cant say i am as ebullient as the analysts at this stage . Back to Aug 27 . BHP certainly due for a relief rally but will it stick a low that lasts for the ' buy and hold ' crowd . NFI . More risk buying pre earnings here but potentially where the largest reward lies . Lots of questions not so many answers . Good luck to all


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yes i bought some extra yesterday , but then i am using to logic that BHP is too large to fail completely ( and therefore a kind of 'safe-haven' )

i have no idea what the markets are thinking where some of the global economy is really struggling

maybe i can get some more cheaper post-results and cum div. .. or maybe i have to wait a few years until the downturn hits BHP profits

i hold a useful amount currently , if i never buy another BHP share , i can deal with that without crying in my breakfast daily

( i can add extra TLS instead using the same 'likely survivor' logic )
 
News flow not great lately with the Chilean communist unions going in for another perennial bite at Escondida. This time they want profit sharing as well...
from the wires

The main union at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile agreed to management’s sweetened wage offer on Friday, leading the union to suspend its strike.

The union, which represents about 2400 workers, began striking on Tuesday at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, after failing to reach a deal over pay. The strike had started to push up global copper prices.

But on Friday, BHP said the two sides reached an agreement after resuming talks. Sources at the company and the union told Reuters that BHP offered workers around $US32,000 ($48,000) as a bonus and an additional $US2000 in soft loans.

BHP had previously offered a $US28,900 bonus per worker, compared with the union’s demand of 1 per cent of shareholder dividends from the mine, or roughly $US35,000 to $US36,000 per member.
 
But on Friday, BHP said the two sides reached an agreement after resuming talks. Sources at the company and the union told Reuters that BHP offered workers around $US32,000 ($48,000) as a bonus and an additional $US2000 in soft loans.

BHP had previously offered a $US28,900 bonus per worker, compared with the union’s demand of 1 per cent of shareholder dividends from the mine, or roughly $US35,000 to $US36,000 per member.

Hope we don't see mines in Australia subjected to this militant bargaining, ridiculous.
 
Hope we don't see mines in Australia subjected to this militant bargaining, ridiculous.
if history is any guide ( in Australia ) this is a forlorn hope

remember the Australian Labor Party was formed by striking unionists

sure if the other party was in ,the disputes would be more vocal and widely publicized but they ( think they ) see an endless pot of money and WANT a slice
 
And fair in a way..if it is good enough for one mine ...
You know i consider BHP management retards at best
Wtf were they thinking?
For info
According to the National Statistics Institute of Chile (INE), the average salary in Chile is 1,850,000 CLP per month, around 1917.10 USD. The average annual salary in Chile is 22,450,000 CLP,
Or $36k aud
So bonus is much more than a year average salary there
 
yes i bought some extra yesterday , but then i am using to logic that BHP is too large to fail completely ( and therefore a kind of 'safe-haven' )

i have no idea what the markets are thinking where some of the global economy is really struggling

maybe i can get some more cheaper post-results and cum div. .. or maybe i have to wait a few years until the downturn hits BHP profits

i hold a useful amount currently , if i never buy another BHP share , i can deal with that without crying in my breakfast daily

( i can add extra TLS instead using the same 'likely survivor' logic )
BHP is never failing so safe as houses there . Buying on 25% retrace is better than buying $50 thats for sure , in the long term thats working out for sure . BHP is 20% of its 12 month high almost every year fwiw so its not uncommon , food for thought in the buy and hold crowd out there , had a quick cursory glance and it's got to be close to 80% of years this century BHP has been down 20% from 12 month highs . I love stats/data , it's real .....
 
BHP is never failing so safe as houses there . Buying on 25% retrace is better than buying $50 thats for sure , in the long term thats working out for sure . BHP is 20% of its 12 month high almost every year fwiw so its not uncommon , food for thought in the buy and hold crowd out there , had a quick cursory glance and it's got to be close to 80% of years this century BHP has been down 20% from 12 month highs . I love stats/data , it's real .....
after 2020 i believe there is no such thing as 'never ',but then i was previously buying BHP as low as $14.80 in early 2016 ,
so let's say $10 for the current 'trimmed down' and simplified BHP , that was a BHP complete with S32 ( inside ) a petroleum arm and two huge Queensland coal mines ... and the worry was some failed dams in a JOINT venture


BUT if BHP were to fail the Australian economy ( heavily reliant on mining royalties and taxes ) would be in a tragic mess as well

look at the ripples caused by mothballing Nickel West
 
after 2020 i believe there is no such thing as 'never ',but then i was previously buying BHP as low as $14.80 in early 2016 ,
so let's say $10 for the current 'trimmed down' and simplified BHP , that was a BHP complete with S32 ( inside ) a petroleum arm and two huge Queensland coal mines ... and the worry was some failed dams in a JOINT venture


BUT if BHP were to fail the Australian economy ( heavily reliant on mining royalties and taxes ) would be in a tragic mess as well

look at the ripples caused by mothballing Nickel West
Lets put it this way , maybe i actually can not say never fail BUT if BHP ever failed the balance of your SMSF is the last thing you should be worried about . I am discounting dystopian end of the world as we know it scenarios . But i am extremely confident outside an event like that BHP never fails .
 
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