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BHP - BHP Group

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Another view from 'Market Matters' today.
They're getting keener. They see the support level of the trading range as being $40 (I have been using $42)
Why they would pick $40 beats me.

BHP Group (BHP) $41.19
BHP has been on MM’s radar all year as we’ve called the $40-50 trading range to hold; the top end has delivered with a spike towards $51 as we exited 2023, being rejected and as we commence the second half of 2024 the “Big Australian” finds itself almost 19% lower. We have practically stalked BHP over the last 12-months, and it’s important to remember the giant miner was never going to present an exciting buying opportunity into good news, i.e. resource stocks are cyclical, generally rewarding those who buy weakness and sell strength. Whether it’s iron ore, nickel, copper, coal or China, nothing reads well for BHP; arguably, a classic worst-case scenario is unfolding, similar to the recent blow-off in AI but in reverse.
  • We like BHP below $40; the risk/reward and valuation would be compelling around the $38-39 area, now only 6% lower.
  • BHP represents almost 10% of the ASX200 by market cap, and we are looking to increase our exposure below $40. We own BHP in our Active Growth and Active Income Portfolios.
BHP​
MM will likely increase our exposure to BHP around $38
 
eskys said:
China's doing it tough, must affect iron ore price...housing in trouble, everything China appears to be in a slump........
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It's not only China doing tough. Other countries too at the current time but I do believe BHP will rise to her glory days again in the future.
Iron Ore will be in big demand. As Rachael Hunter said in one of her Hair product advertisment..It won't happen overnight but it will happen.
Saw some natural disasters documentary on you tube, China seems to be one of the worst country hit by floods, tornado..weather changes. Bldgs, roads n bridges all destroyed as well as they are busy in their country highway infrastructural surely these projects will be demanding for iron ore.
Also look at our own country, shortage of housing construction.
 
Rabbithop said:
It's not only China doing tough. Other countries too at the current time but I do believe BHP will rise to her glory days again in the future.
Iron Ore will be in big demand. As Rachael Hunter said in one of her Hair product advertisment..It won't happen overnight but it will happen.
Saw some natural disasters documentary on you tube, China seems to be one of the worst country hit by floods, tornado..weather changes. Bldgs, roads n bridges all destroyed as well as they are busy in their country highway infrastructural surely these projects will be demanding for iron ore.
Also look at our own country, shortage of housing construction.
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???

not a wave of negative propaganda depending on the history you read the Chinese culture goes back 4000 years ( plus ) AND had a system of writing/record keeping

unlike some cultures China values it's history and records , surely they have some alternate strategies to mitigate disasters

i can remember several major flooding events in my former hometown Brisbane , several big floods , the odd cyclone , a few ripper hail storms and they still continue building homes/units/shopping malls in Brisbane ( despite a recorded flood history in Brisbane ..with photos no less )
 
'Market Matters' Morning Report

BHP Group (BHP) $41.54​

Yesterday, BHP announced a partnership with Canadian listed, $CAD11bn Lundin Mining, to acquire Filo Corp, which is the owner of the Filo del Sol Copper project on the border of Argentina & Chile. The deal is a bigger one proportionally for Lundin, with the 50:50 JV at a total consideration of CAD$4.1bn, with each party funding it differently (i.e Lundin is offering some shares while BHP is stumping in cash). BHP’s share is $A2.1bn, a small fraction of the $75bn Anglo deal it was trying to get over the line in April.
  • This a long-term growth project that fits with BHP’s strategic direction towards future-facing commodities such as Copper, however, it will not turn the dial for BHP in the shorter term.
BHP is set to report FY24 earnings on August 27th. The market expects earnings per share (EPS) of $US2.74 and a US$1.48 dividend for the year (inclusive of the US72cps paid in the 1H). This implies a 2H distribution of US76cps/$A1.16, putting it on a yield of ~5.5% fully franked.
MM may increase BHP ~$38
 
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TimeISmoney said:
Trying to chase smart money is how you end up losing all your money, they have everything at their helm that we don't.
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not everything , but sometimes a jack will do the job ( for the retail folk )

remember if the company was so good they would buy ALL the stock ( and debt ) for themselves

after just helping to stop the PSQ take-over ..just 38 shareholders voted against the deal ( but our combined shareholdings were enough
( against the wishes of directors other major holders and a co-founder )

'the smart money ' could buy BHP on market if they chose to just like Ms. Rinehart bought Atlas Iron on market
 
TimeISmoney said:
Someone is buying and someone is selling, more buyers than sellers though.

View attachment 182231

View attachment 182232
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By definition, there are as many buyers as sellers in term of shares, but if you have 10 wannabee traders buying 100 shares each vs one insider selling 1000 shares..am i supposed to expect a booming price?
I think i will disagree on that " indicator,"
 
divs4ever said:
not everything , but sometimes a jack will do the job ( for the retail folk )

remember if the company was so good they would buy ALL the stock ( and debt ) for themselves

after just helping to stop the PSQ take-over ..just 38 shareholders voted against the deal ( but our combined shareholdings were enough
( against the wishes of directors other major holders and a co-founder )

'the smart money ' could buy BHP on market if they chose to just like Ms. Rinehart bought Atlas Iron on market
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A lot of scenarios can occur and it's not always in the favour of retail, When Rinehart bought into LTR, the stock tanked 50% overnight. Trying to guess what Instos are going to do is like guessing what the weather will be doing next month.
 
qldfrog said:
By definition, there are as many buyers as sellers in term of shares, but if you have 10 wannabee traders buying 100 shares each vs one insider selling 1000 shares..am i supposed to expect a booming price?
I think i will disagree on that " indicator,"
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I don't think scalpers will be buying on the downward trend, they're probably accumulating and diluting what they already hold because they think the SP is cheap for now.
 
TimeISmoney said:
I don't think scalpers will be buying on the downward trend, they're probably accumulating and diluting what they already hold because they think the SP is cheap for now.
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well the bigger players have the opportunity to short-sell ( not just affect the same result via options ) a large player may decide to borrow ( or sell an existing holding ) , sell and buy back cheaper ( and if they chose a larger parcel )

usually my best option ( should i chose to enlarge the holding ) is to buy smaller parcels as the share price slides and slides

now i have seen comments about future dividends being cut back ( and that is not deliberately unfair ) but i do wonder about the timing

i think the share price will languish but that will only reflect a cooling global economy and the slowdown in demand that results from that cooling

and as @qldfrog likes to point out .. BHP makes quite a few stumbles
 
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