Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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TimeISmoney said:
Most Aussie IO miners will still make a profit down to about $55 USD/ DMT, I'll gather they'll cull the bottom end of the workforce as they do so that the CEOs can still make some form of bonus.
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Buy if io is at $55, what about the rest of minjng, non io, etc, all mothballed,?
Fmg if not for its pipe dreams could still give dividends as pure io
but diversified miners not so easily, plus they might want go keep their cash for acquisition , or be bought back..
I see a low risk of bankruptcy, but a high one of SP collapse and low dividends returns .just commodity cycles.
Anyway, i would put a bit of money from $35 ish..just a bit..increasing exposure preferably via ETF, ideally world ETFs to get bhp and rio at a bargain on the london exchange.
Let's see how things happen in the coming quarter with Iran nuked? Ukraine peace talks? And Taiwan..
 
qldfrog said:
Buy if io is at $55, what about the rest of minjng, non io, etc, all mothballed,?
Fmg if not for its pipe dreams could still give dividends as pure io
but diversified miners not so easily, plus they might want go keep their cash for acquisition , or be bought back..
I see a low risk of bankruptcy, but a high one of SP collapse and low dividends returns .just commodity cycles.
Anyway, i would put a bit of money from $35 ish..just a bit..increasing exposure preferably via ETF, ideally world ETFs to get bhp and rio at a bargain on the london exchange.
Let's see how things happen in the coming quarter with Iran nuked? Ukraine peace talks? And Taiwan..
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well this commodity cycle has been rather long , a downturn in base metals is probably overdue
 
qldfrog said:
Buy if io is at $55, what about the rest of minjng, non io, etc, all mothballed,?
Fmg if not for its pipe dreams could still give dividends as pure io
but diversified miners not so easily, plus they might want go keep their cash for acquisition , or be bought back..
I see a low risk of bankruptcy, but a high one of SP collapse and low dividends returns .just commodity cycles.
Anyway, i would put a bit of money from $35 ish..just a bit..increasing exposure preferably via ETF, ideally world ETFs to get bhp and rio at a bargain on the london exchange.
Let's see how things happen in the coming quarter with Iran nuked? Ukraine peace talks? And Taiwan..
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I reckon that BHP can spring back at any time, market makers can make things happen that shouldn't.

I followed the demise of LTR and there is no hope for it at 12% shorting unlike BHP and FMG, but not to say they can't go lower in this economic environment. Something suspect is here, 0.5 % shorting is barely a bump on the scales.

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TimeISmoney said:
I reckon that BHP can spring back at any time, market makers can make things happen that shouldn't.

I followed the demise of LTR and there is no hope for it at 12% shorting unlike BHP and FMG, but not to say they can't go lower in this economic environment. Something suspect is here, 0.5 % shorting is barely a bump on the scales.

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BHP can lose a third of its value when the PO Iron Ore falls, as it has now well below $100. Up to a third looking back at 2008 and 2015.

They say it is low cost for BHP but I'm not too sure.

I'll not be selling but I'll join Divsie @divs4ever when he buys back in around the $32-$34 mark.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
BHP can lose a third of its value when the PO Iron Ore falls, as it has now well below $100. Up to a third looking back at 2008 and 2015.

They say it is low cost for BHP but I'm not too sure.

gg
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Front page of BHP website ..."We have continued to focus our portfolio on iron ore and higher-quality metallurgical coal preferred by our steelmaking customers, copper which is used in electrification and potash to make food production and land use more efficient and more sustainable"
... not a mention of nickel until a few clicks in.


all commodities are coming under pressure... and, yes it's a cycle. I'd expect copper to recover quicker than iron ore.
 
BHP is scheduled to report results [early next week] with strategy to be a key theme predicts US bank Jefferies.

Jefferies predicts that the failed bid for Anglo American will figure prominently in the post-results discussion.

The US broker also suggests that organic growth in copper, operational strategy in metallurgical coal, and the macro outlook—particularly the risks to steel demand in China—will feature in the discussions. However, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are likely to be the key topic.

"Acquisitions in copper are clearly a strategic priority for the company, and BHP has been the most active diversified miner in the ongoing M&A landscape in mining recently."

Although reported net debt is currently in the upper half of the company's previous target range of $5-15 billion, Jefferies expects BHP to remain strategically active.

It does not expect BHP to revisit its bid for Anglo American once the six-month standstill expires, but Canada-based operators and/or further consolidation of the Vicuña district may make strategic sense.

The importance of copper is also increasing. BHP achieved its highest copper production in more than 15 years in the year just ended, driven by the highest production in four years at Escondida, record production at Spence, and the integration of the OZ Minerals assets.

Based on guidance, production is expected to increase in 2024-25 before volumes at Escondida decline due to lower concentrator feed grades.

BHP has organic project options in copper to potentially replace the lower production, including the possible construction of a new concentrator and the application of leaching technologies at Escondida.

www.proactiveinvestors.com.au

BHP's failed bid for Anglo to dominate results, suggests Jefferies

BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP), the Aussie mining titan, is scheduled to report results on the evening of August 26 (Tuesday) with strategy to be a key...
www.proactiveinvestors.com.au
 
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BHP has posted an underlying net profit of $US13.7 billion for the 2024 financial year, beating estimates of $US13.5 billion.

Revenue increased 3 per cent on the prior year to $US55.7 billion, as a result of higher realised prices across iron ore and copper, where sales volumes also increased 3 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

The miner declared a final dividend of US74¢ a share, a 53 per cent payout ratio
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
BHP can lose a third of its value when the PO Iron Ore falls, as it has now well below $100. Up to a third looking back at 2008 and 2015.

They say it is low cost for BHP but I'm not too sure.

I'll not be selling but I'll join Divsie @divs4ever when he buys back in around the $32-$34 mark.

gg
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i haven't sold out of BHP

but intend to be very nervous/cautious about adding more , until there is some substantial changes ( maybe another punch to the face like the tailings dam saga , maybe some other change in direction that i finally like , despite the market reaction .)

given events elsewhere one would normally think BHP could leverage it's uranium exposure ... but BHP has made some intriguing decisions lately( not that i am complaining about letting WHC have those coal assets )
 
divs4ever said:
i haven't sold out of BHP

but intend to be very nervous/cautious about adding more , until there is some substantial changes ( maybe another punch to the face like the tailings dam saga , maybe some other change in direction that i finally like , despite the market reaction .)

given events elsewhere one would normally think BHP could leverage it's uranium exposure ... but BHP has made some intriguing decisions lately( not that i am complaining about letting WHC have those coal assets )
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I think it's just challenging times for commodity miners with the way the economy is.

BHP’s boss tables his ‘Plan A’ to be crowned copper king​

There are not too many chief executives who can casually dismiss a $74bn bid for a global rival as little more than a fallback option.

Yet BHP boss Mike Henry is keen to show he has quickly moved on from this year’s spurned bid for Anglo American. He has big plans to grow in copper, the hottest metal going right now.
Anglo and its temperamental South American copper mines would have been nice to have, but Henry has essentially told his investors to just forget about them: BHP is already the king of copper.
Anglo “wasn’t Plan A for us”, the BHP boss says. “Plan A is everything that you see outlined in these results, including getting better and better from our ongoing operations, but also about unlocking further growth within our existing resource base”.
Henry dedicated a major chunk of BHP’s annual earnings presentation outlining a path to grow copper output from Chile, Argentina as well as his new promising copper province in South Australia, which once up and running from next decade will be one of the richest collection of copper deposits in the world.

The ambition on copper runs in parallel with already well laid plans to spend billions building out a potash mine in remote Canada. Combined these are the two future facing commodities that BHP, today iron ore has hitched its future to.

To remove any doubt about BHP’s position. Henry offers a not so subtle reminder: “We’ve got the largest copper resources of any company in the in the world”.

Enough copper?​

Henry needs to convince his investors as much as himself he doesn’t need to pay inflated prices for new assets and keep his copper crown.

However the lingering question is whether today’s pipeline of projects will be enough to sustain BHP’s position as well as grow in the face of rising global demand for decades to come.
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TimeISmoney said:
I think it's just challenging times for commodity miners with the way the economy is.
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in ( normal ) theory commodity demand should be shrinking ( except maybe uranium and copper .. and thorium if anybody is mining that in commercial quantities ) , add in inflation/cost/tax increase pressures

will investment capital dry up ( or just flee ) after some recent policy changes ( and not just in Australia )

it should thin out the marginal project/operators

that MIGHT be good for the giants in each area , or might not be as capital flees elsewhere ( say soft commodities like food )
 
Yeah, BHP's worth 50 bucks and I believe that's being conservative in the long term.
You heard authoratively stated right here, right now.

Why? Because if you look back over the last 9 years the median Return On Equity (ROE) = 20%!
ROE as been as high as 47% and low as 12%

A 20% ROE is worth 4 x book value to the eggheads at the exclusive finicky boutique (we don't advertise ourselves and participation is by invitation only - so don't ask and embarrass yourself). Share issuance has been conservative and net debt is low so no discount applies.
Moreover this behemoth has advantages of scale.

Book Value at FY24 = $13.30

Multiply 13 bucks x 4 = 50 bucks (rounded) intrinsic value.

However valuation, even one as sophisticated as this, will count for nothing in a crash and such an event looms. But I've been saying that for 5 years or whatever.

Held
Holding
 
I will not be buying this current chart. There might be the double top target to manifest ($34) or some other dark eventuality. It's possible a rally could happen here first as it has reached a measured move but it strikes me that last week's very negative candle is a bad sign when the stock is yet to go ex dividend on 12 September.

Held

WEEKLY
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finicky said:
Yeah, BHP's worth 50 bucks and I believe that's being conservative in the long term.
You heard authoratively stated right here, right now.

Why? Because if you look back over the last 9 years the median Return On Equity (ROE) = 20%!
ROE as been as high as 47% and low as 12%

A 20% ROE is worth 4 x book value to the eggheads at the exclusive finicky boutique (we don't advertise ourselves and participation is by invitation only - so don't ask and embarrass yourself). Share issuance has been conservative and net debt is low so no discount applies.
Moreover this behemoth has advantages of scale.

Book Value at FY24 = $13.30

Multiply 13 bucks x 4 = 50 bucks (rounded) intrinsic value.

However valuation, even one as sophisticated as this, will count for nothing in a crash and such an event looms. But I've been saying that for 5 years or whatever.

Held
Holding
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The difference between a std business and one where your business is actually selling chunk of your assets.....
 
@qldfrog but Mr dissentiing frog, if your slightly cryptic comment refers to divested assets like its petroleum business to Woodside and a couple of coal mines to Whitehaven, they can use the proceeds to build or acquire other assets, e.g the attempt to acquire Anglo American or BHP's expansion plans for Olympic and Oak Dams:

"BHP is looking to more than double copper production out of South Australia over the next decade and will make a final investment decision on a major smelter upgrade at Olympic Dam within two and a half years, as it revealed a large increase in resources in the state.
The global miner has published a resource estimate for its Oak Dam deposit, 65km southeast of the Olympic Dam mine and smelter, where it has to date delineated 1.34 billion tonnes of copper and gold ore.

BHP is also progressing approvals with the state government for new shafts at both Oak Dam and Olympic Dam, so that it can drill out the deposits at greater depths.

The company has built a copper precinct in South Australia via the $6.4bn acquisition of OZ Minerals in May last year, which brought the Prominent Hill and Carrapateena copper and gold mines into the fold."

Or if your comment is about reserve depletion from mining, well they retained 46% of earnings FY24, some of which goes to exploration, conversion of resources to reserves or, again, acquisitions. So they're building/buying assets while also tearing them down. The thing is, is it profitable and will it continue profitably into the far future? Not so much in a global recession/depression I guess. At least technological creative destruction can't make their products obsolete like it might a "standard business".

Held
Holding
 
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