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BHP - BHP Group

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Ann said:
I am a little saddened as I post this. Back in the 50s when I was but a wee small thing, I heard about this magical company that was making people wealthy. BHP was the very first company I ever heard about, it fired my interest in the stock market. Over the years the company grew and grew until it was finally dubbed 'The Big Australian'!

Sadly I am not here to praise BHP but to bury it with a swing trade calculation on my weekly 15 year chart.

My chart suggests it may get to $5 or $6 but I think it may well be bought up by Boasteel or another Chinese company before it reaches these levels.

In my opinion this is only a stock for short term traders with good stops in place.
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Ann, is there a chance you could update your chart and revisit your analysis?
With regard Boasteel or a Chinese company buying them, I think the U.S assets could cause a speed hump. Just my opinion.
 
effect of Debbie on BHP;
Being Brisbane based and in the industry, what do other people thing of the effect of Debbie on BHP more especially Met Coal ; we have loading facilities stopped for a minimum of 4days probably 6 days of lost shipping or so by the time everything goes back to normal, actual equipement damage on sites;
existing stockpiles potentially affected with probably around USD 150 millions worth of coal stored on sites potentially damaged [ worst case scenario lost washed away due to heavy rain/wind] + lost production in mines/affected railing and it is still raining like mad on the mines.
BHP will release prod figures at the end of april (in a month).Do you think this will/should affect prices?
Any Mackay people aware ..and back on the forum??
 
qldfrog said:
effect of Debbie on BHP;
Being Brisbane based and in the industry, what do other people thing of the effect of Debbie on BHP more especially Met Coal ; we have loading facilities stopped for a minimum of 4days probably 6 days of lost shipping or so by the time everything goes back to normal, actual equipement damage on sites;
existing stockpiles potentially affected with probably around USD 150 millions worth of coal stored on sites potentially damaged [ worst case scenario lost washed away due to heavy rain/wind] + lost production in mines/affected railing and it is still raining like mad on the mines.
BHP will release prod figures at the end of april (in a month).Do you think this will/should affect prices?
Any Mackay people aware ..and back on the forum??
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I'm in Mackay and in the industry. I am not aware of any hard details of anything yet.

Hay Point Port will be offline for several days (I don't work here, but the port next door - Dalrymple Bay) likely because its impossible to load a ship in this weather. Damage will probably be unknown until at least tomorrow as I doubt anything but a skeleton crew would have been even able to access the site (roads under everywhere today).

BHP has several mines which will no doubt have several metres of water in their pits. It has been reported in some areas west of Mackay that 1,000mm of rain fell in the last 24hr period - that's a hell of a lot of rain! I'd vision similar scenes to those of the impact of Cyclone Yasi 6 years ago.

Just when the mining industry was just turning upwards from the bottom, we have this weather event which will put it behind the 8-ball again.

pinkboy
 
pinkboy said:
I'm in Mackay and in the industry. I am not aware of any hard details of anything yet.

Hay Point Port will be offline for several days (I don't work here, but the port next door - Dalrymple Bay) likely because its impossible to load a ship in this weather. Damage will probably be unknown until at least tomorrow as I doubt anything but a skeleton crew would have been even able to access the site (roads under everywhere today).

BHP has several mines which will no doubt have several metres of water in their pits. It has been reported in some areas west of Mackay that 1,000mm of rain fell in the last 24hr period - that's a hell of a lot of rain! I'd vision similar scenes to those of the impact of Cyclone Yasi 6 years ago.

Just when the mining industry was just turning upwards from the bottom, we have this weather event which will put it behind the 8-ball again.

pinkboy
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Thanks Pinkboy, worked with Hay Point and so the question between this and the lost production in Chile with the copper mine, I could easily see an impact on overall production of a few % .
Which should be leveraged in term of profit to around low 10% worst case scenario for coal and copper..
I short and will probably be wrong
 
qldfrog said:
Thanks Pinkboy, worked with Hay Point and so the question between this and the lost production in Chile with the copper mine, I could easily see an impact on overall production of a few % .
Which should be leveraged in term of profit to around low 10% worst case scenario for coal and copper..
I short and will probably be wrong
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and for those who care about BHP results (aka BMA and the met coal production collapse this year with matching hit on the qld gov revenue)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-03/cyclone-debbie-closes-rail-disrupting-coal-exports/8411690
Potentially up to the 20 million tonnes prod lost in the 2011 flood..not me saying it
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-03/cyclone-debbie-closes-rail-disrupting-coal-exports/8411690

my option will lapse, and the week after everyone will wake up to this impact...:D
 
qldfrog said:
and for those who care about BHP results (aka BMA and the met coal production collapse this year with matching hit on the qld gov revenue)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-03/cyclone-debbie-closes-rail-disrupting-coal-exports/8411690
Potentially up to the 20 million tonnes prod lost in the 2011 flood..not me saying it
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-03/cyclone-debbie-closes-rail-disrupting-coal-exports/8411690

my option will lapse, and the week after everyone will wake up to this impact...:D
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This is excellent for me. I got a call today to have 4 blokes on site (Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal) indefinitely for maintenance until coal can get railed in. DBCT had all green lights at Rail Receival at lunchtime today - so they won't be up for demurrage fees!

pinkboy
 
BHP is one of a list of companies worldwide to be blackmailed by investors if they don't cut their emissions... :rolleyes:

Australian investors controlling billions of dollars will start pressuring the world's biggest polluters to do more on climate change as part of a new global initiative.


Around the world, 225 investors controlling more than $US26.3 trillion ($A36.8 trillion) have joined forces in the Climate Action 100+ initiative, which launched on Tuesday during the French government's One Planet climate summit.

They plan to target 100 companies who are the world's biggest polluters in direct and indirect ways, including through emissions associated with the use of their products.

Companies on the list cover oil, gas and electricity businesses, the world's major car and aircraft manufacturers, and household names like Nestle, Pepsi and Panasonic.

Australian mining giant BHP Billiton is included, along with others that operate down under such as Rio Tinto and Glencore.

Investors who hold shares in these companies will write to their boards and senior management asking them to clearly set out the board's accountability and oversight of climate risk and to start cutting emissions.

Major Australian superannuation funds - including Australian Super, VicSuper, First State Super, Cbus and Hesta - and some of the country's biggest investment funds like AMP Capital, Australian Ethical Investment, Ausbil, IFM Investors and Colonial First State's investment arm have signed up.

Australian Super's senior investment governance manager Andrew Gray said it was remarkable such a substantial community of investors had come together in the short time since the initiative was first floated in September.

"They want to send an unequivocal signal- directly to companies - that they will be holding them accountable in order to secure nothing less than bold corporate action to improve governance, curb emissions, and increase disclosure to swiftly address the greatest challenge of our time," he said.

The new initiative is coordinated in part by the Australian-based Investor Group on Climate Change.

"This project puts companies on notice that investors expect real action on climate change," group chief executive Emma Herda said.

"Through Climate Action 100+ investors hope to move companies to go further, faster, when it comes to managing climate change risk and developing low carbon opportunities."
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http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...e/news-story/f934094d9a8d329255c789b174d933be
 
Been looking at BHP chart and comparing to the price of crude oil here. They both seem to be in sync quite well for the best part of the last few years ( not price magnitude but pattern of trend). COT chart suggests Crude ready to fall back here as commercials nett short 700,000 contracts and Price Action already starting to turn down and diverging with BHP price.


https://invst.ly/7ceeg
 

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BHP has had a good run up from $22 over the last 12 months. The big question is, where is going next?

For most of the last couple of months it has been range trading between $32 and $34. Yesterday it opened down near $32 at the lower end of that range. Today it has opened higher at $33.15, so it looks to be in the middle of another swing up towards the upper end of that range.

At some point it will have to break above or below the current range, so I'm keeping an eye on any higher volume movements towards $32 or $34.

big.chart-BHP.gif
 
What was the price in 2016?
$15 jeez that was only two years ago, OMG, did the gen xyz and anyone else jump onboard?
But the baby boomers will still be told they had all the opportunities, lol
 
sptrawler said:
What was the price in 2016?
$15 jeez that was only two years ago, OMG, did the gen xyz and anyone else jump onboard?
But the baby boomers will still be told they had all the opportunities, lol
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I hanged on to mine. Didn't load up though as already got stuck with it and over-exposed to the sector with other holdings. But yea, BHP's share price didn't do much for me at my entry years ago, but the dividends and spin offs aren't too bad.

Santos was going for $2.55 to $3 for a while. Monadelphous for $5.50s to $6 around the same time...

Seems the banks, retailers, REITs will present similar opportunities soon. Not all of course, some won't make it out alive.
 
luutzu said:
I hanged on to mine. Didn't load up though as already got stuck with it and over-exposed to the sector with other holdings. But yea, BHP's share price didn't do much for me at my entry years ago, but the dividends and spin offs aren't too bad.

Santos was going for $2.55 to $3 for a while. Monadelphous for $5.50s to $6 around the same time...

Seems the banks, retailers, REITs will present similar opportunities soon. Not all of course, some won't make it out alive.
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That is how it works, there is ups and downs, what annoys me is when people start saying one generation had it better.
They didn't, they lived through hard times and then good times, then harder times come back.
It is just a nasty cop out for the generation, that has grown up through a good time and now face a harder time.
I'm starting to rant, but I find it annoying, my appologies.
 
This will take some cleaning up!

https://thewest.com.au/business/min...-travelled-92km-without-driver-ng-b881012020z

BHP deliberately derailed a runaway Pilbara iron train carrying 268 wagons early today after it travelled 92km across the Pilbara without a driver.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau said about 4am the driver of a loaded ore train travelling from Newman to Port Hedland alighted to inspect a wagon.

The bureau said the train, consisting of four locomotives and 268 wagons, started to run away without the driver and with no one on board, travelling for 92km.



BHP then stopped the train by deliberately derailing it at a set of points about 120 km from Port Hedland.

A BHP spokeswoman said no one was injured and the Pilbara miner has suspended all train operations.

“We are working with the appropriate authorities to investigate the situation,” she said.

BHP declined to provide further details, saying the incident was under investigation.

The ATSB conducts technical investigations for the Office of the National Rail Safety Regulator.

A spokesman for the regulator said it had sent two investigators to the Pilbara to determine if there had been any breaches of the national rail safety laws.

The mining giant exported 69 million tonnes of iron ore from Port Hedland in the three months to September.

BHP’s Pilbara operations have had other derailments in recent years.

In February 2017 about 40 ore cars came off the rails about 130km south of Port Hedland.

BHP also had 25 cars derail on the Newman to Port Hedland line in December 2015, blocking both lines that run to the port.

The incident was caused a broken rail, probably with a defect that could have been detected but was not, according to bureau report released last month.

The line was shut down for three days before traffic resumed.

In that case, the ATSB report said BHP accelerated the re-railing of more than 800km of track and improved the detection of cracks in rails in response to the accident.
 
https://www.afr.com/brand/chanticle...n-a-sign-of-resources-revival-20181101-h17e7n

BHP's $14.7bn capital return a sign of resources revival

BHP's plan to return $US10.4 billion ($14.7 billion) through a buyback and a special dividend is an emphatically positive signal that the resources sector is in a good place at the moment.

Sensible disposal strategies, strong commodity prices and an end to crazy expansion in projects that didn't make a return on investment are behind BHP's capital return largesse.

Its capital return plan was one of many positive developments in the resources sector this week.

Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting lifted profit 28 per cent to $1.75 billion in the year to June and Glencore's Hunter Valley coal mining operations are firing on all cylinders judging from a briefing for analysts on Wednesday.


Rinehart, who is using the bulk of her profits to pay down debt, has been one of the beneficiaries of consistently strong demand from Asia for iron ore.

Glencore's upbeat disclosures about the performance of its Hail Creek thermal coal mine will be read by some as an indictment of Rio Tinto, which sold an 82 per cent interest in the Hail Creek joint venture for $1.55 billion in March this year.

It is a tribute to the mining skills of Glencore's global head of coal assets, Peter Freyberg, that following a redesign the Hail Creek mine will deliver cost savings of $110 million a year. It will operate with 427 fewer employees while increasing production levels.

Coal is now Australia's single largest export earner according to the latest analysis of the September trade data by Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities. She says the No.2 export earner after coal is tourism and third is iron ore, based on annualised quarterly data.

Beacher says the most notable aspect of the latest $3 billion trade surplus for September was the surge in LNG exports, which have tripled in the past three years to be approaching $50 billion. LNG will be the No.1 export by 2020.


Beacher says working out of an office in Singapore gives her a different perspective on the Australian economy to those economists in Australia. She can look through the noise about falling housing prices and the threat posed by the US-China trade wars.

She says the revival of the fortunes of Australia's commodity producers is unequivocally positive for the economy, which is heading towards GDP forecast upgrades on the back of higher export income.

"Infrastructure spending and accelerating LNG exports are supporting growth, such that the economy is less dependent on the fortunes of iron ore, house prices and consumer spending than it used to be," Beacher says.

"Having said that, an iron ore price above $US65 a tonne is positive for exports and budget revenues. As economic growth is increasingly broad-based, another bout of iron ore price weakness – for whatever reason – is unlikely to materially dent the outlook for Australia, nor concern the RBA."


She says Australia might well be in the fortunate position of having twin surpluses – a trade surplus and a fiscal surplus.

Beacher is less concerned about a slowing Chinese economy than other commentators. She says Chinese industrial production has slowed from 20 per cent per annum in 2009 to 6 per cent per annum now and yet China's imports of commodities remain high and are rising.

Activist effect
The $14.7 billion BHP capital management program is being funded by the sale of the company's onshore gas assets in the United States. This disposal can be partly sheeted home to the activist pressure brought to bear by activist investor Elliott.


That is not to say that Elliott is happy with the buyback and special dividend. It is still focused on forcing BHP to end its dual-listed company structure. It won't admit defeat even though BHP is not budging.

Elliott alleges the dual-listed structure destroys franking credits. It bases this claim on analysis by hired consultant FTI Consulting.

Most institutional shareholders interviewed by Chanticleer were happy with the capital management program.

That is not to say there was no criticism. John Abernethy, chief investment officer at Clime Asset Management, which has $900 million under management, says the buyback and special dividend should not have been approved by the Australian Taxation Office.


He says the ATO has rubber stamped a buyback scheme that allows high tax-paying shareholders to minimise capital gains tax through the use of the capital losses.

Analysis of the BHP off-market buyback by Evans and Partners suggests the after-tax proceeds for someone on zero tax will be $39 a share and $21.47 for someone on the highest marginal tax rate.

A super fund paying 15 per cent tax would have after-tax proceeds of $33.18 per share.

Geoff Wilson, chairman of Wilson Asset Management, says BHP is smart to get franking credits off its balance sheet and into the hands of shareholders ahead of the next election, which could see the Labor Party in power.

Labor plans to put an end to the payment of franking credits in cash to Australians on zero tax rates. Wilson would not be surprised if other companies moved quickly to get franking credits to shareholders.

Wilson says the opposition does not realise the extent of the impact of its planned changes to the franking credit system.
 
Trav. said:
BHP deliberately derailed a runaway Pilbara iron train carrying 268 wagons early today after it travelled 92km across the Pilbara without a driver.
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Some footage of the aftermath. BHP announced today that it should take 1 week to reopen line and that stocks at Port Hedland should be suuficient...Maybe a bit optimistic on the cleanup but will be interestin

 
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