Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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Oil futures under $50 until 2019.
Iron Ore futures under $40 until 2024.

So on those numbers, BHP probably under $12 given EPS will be under 100c.

Not even interpreting much at all, just putting the numbers together.
 
Bought a small bucket full of call options this morning anyway. Looking to hold for a week or so...
Just for the record :)
 
PennD said:
Sold this morning...
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good idea, PD :)

This morning's announcement of substantial write-downs has the potential to push the sp much lower.
I reckon the initial rise, in spite of that write-down, was caused by panicking Short sellers who scrambled to cover in light of last night's recovery in the US. The associated rally of our S&P200 proved only short-lived.

XJO:
XJO i01 15-01-16.png

BHP:
BHP i01 15-01-16.png
 
Just a little sneaky trade...
I was expecting a much better return on a 5 1/2% move...
Still 50% profit though... ☺
We going to lose the long trend line on xjo ya think?
I got the vibe 4500 is coming soon?
 
First cut to dividends since 1988, first loss in yonks yet the market doesn't even flitch with BHP?

Had the market already factored in the dividend announcement in the price today?
 
Modest said:
First cut to dividends since 1988, first loss in yonks yet the market doesn't even flitch with BHP?

Had the market already factored in the dividend announcement in the price today?
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Market chatter boxes were expecting about half of what it paid last time. So it was light.
I think the strength in the market performance came due to the 5% jump in IO over night up over $50.
When that turns on the back of back to the reality of fearing on China's issues - big short!
What was more interesting was what FMG did leading up to the sudden jump in IO prices. It seemed like an inside job. Who is giving us the IO number, or manipulating it? One guess........
 
notting said:
Market chatter boxes were expecting about half of what it paid last time. So it was light.
I think the strength in the market performance came due to the 5% jump in IO over night up over $50.
When that turns on the back of back to the reality of fearing on China's issues - big short!
What was more interesting was what FMG did leading up to the sudden jump in IO prices. It seemed like an inside job. Who is giving us the IO number, or manipulating it? One guess........
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Interesting... I am looking at BHP as a potential first dip into long term value investing hence finding me outside of the derivatives forum :)

Interesting points, I feel less pain now after missing my opportunity to buy it at 15.00 for long term hold.

Sorry for my arrogance but who is your guess re: IO numbers?
 
Modest said:
Interesting... I am looking at BHP as a potential first dip into long term value investing hence finding me outside of the derivatives forum :)

Interesting points, I feel less pain now after missing my opportunity to buy it at 15.00 for long term hold.

Sorry for my arrogance but who is your guess re: IO numbers?
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china
 
Modest said:
Interesting... I am looking at BHP as a potential first dip into long term value investing hence finding me outside of the derivatives forum :)

Interesting points, I feel less pain now after missing my opportunity to buy it at 15.00 for long term hold.

Sorry for my arrogance but who is your guess re: IO numbers?
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Long term value investing and resources companies should never be in the same sentence. For the simple reason that you cannot predict commodity prices over the long term.

You can certainly trade a resource company, riding long term trends... Like the 10 years to 2014 would have been alright.
 
skc said:
Long term value investing and resources companies should never be in the same sentence. For the simple reason that you cannot predict commodity prices over the long term.

You can certainly trade a resource company, riding long term trends... Like the 10 years to 2014 would have been alright.
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Thanks skc I have written off the whole idea of buying BHP in the near future. Thanks mate.
 
BHP Price pushing $18 after H1 result.

Iron Ore and Oil averaged realised price were both around $45 USD.

This lead to 11c EPS, and an annualised Forward PE of 80 and Dividend Yield of 3%.

Iron Ore Futures are priced at $35 and Oil Futures priced at $40 both for 2017 (both under the latest H1 averages).

Continue to join the (obvious) dots.
 
These days production cuts lead to rally's :cool:

Now if you think that through what is it saying about demand?
 
notting said:
The anticipated impairment charge seemed a little light!!!:cool:
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Oh look a third impairment charge relating to the one impairment. It's a staggering disclosure over three reporting seasons relating to one catastrophe. :cautious:

And even with the doubling of iron ore prices they still managed a 6 billion dollar loss. 6 Billion, :mad:

Gotta have sympathy for the poor new CEO Andrew Mackenzie, got nothing to do with him.
Although he did say they are undervalued!
Not sure how you figure that if IO prices decline again and oil does not get up over about $60
 
I am a little saddened as I post this. Back in the 50s when I was but a wee small thing, I heard about this magical company that was making people wealthy. BHP was the very first company I ever heard about, it fired my interest in the stock market. Over the years the company grew and grew until it was finally dubbed 'The Big Australian'!

Sadly I am not here to praise BHP but to bury it with a swing trade calculation on my weekly 15 year chart.

My chart suggests it may get to $5 or $6 but I think it may well be bought up by Boasteel or another Chinese company before it reaches these levels.

In my opinion this is only a stock for short term traders with good stops in place.
 

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gartley said:
If every pattern worked all the time we would not be here posting ideas.

In my view what sets these harmonic patterns ( and other patterns too) from other methods such as EW, is that there is no ambiguity. It will either work or it won't.....

Because when we enter the market we are dealing with probabilities, all we can do is identify the potential pattern, predict the possible direction it resolves, making a decision and then act if it fit's into our risk profile.
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Looking back through some past posts I thought this response from gartley is a good way at keeping the perspective of patterns ,probabilities and the intended risk of a trade.
 
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