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Trembling Hand said: "Anyone know what time the release is for the December-quarter production report.
Cannot see the time stated anywhere other than today"

According to Iress, it's just come out.
 
Sails said"According to Iress, it's just come out............................................................... Oh dear, 100 characters again !!!!!"

Yep I'm getting it. Nothing disastrous in it. Olympic dam getting "scaled back", Small cuts to production Blah Blah ....

Lets see how the Boyz like it hey?
 
Shutdown of Ravensthorpe confirmed.
Production is down to what looks to be like expected levels.
Scale back of Olympic Dam..
 
S73417H said:
Shutdown of Ravensthorpe confirmed.
Production is down to what looks to be like expected levels.
Scale back of Olympic Dam..
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It's not just the shutdown of the mine and processing plant that's at stake here. I feel very much for the poor folk of what was becoming the nickel mining boom-town of Ravensthorpe (and nearby Hopetoun). BHP's shutdown is "indefinite" due to
.. diminished prospects for profitability of Ravensthorpe and Yabulu in the current environment, significant and continuing deterioration in the outlook for the nickel market, and the projected level of capital expenditure required in order to achieve and sustain projected production volumes at Ravensthorpe. As a result, the total workforce at these operations and associated Perth-based functional areas will be reduced by approximately 800 employees and 1,000 contractors by June 2009.

In addition, the rate of mining at the Mount Keith (Australia) operation will be reduced in order to preserve its economic viability. The overall rate of concentrate production at Mount Keith will remain largely unchanged. Improved processing technology will enable the operation to source and process more ore from existing stockpiles. The Mount Keith workforce will be reduced by approximately 100 employees and 200 contractors by end February 2009.
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...and from the Ravensthorpe Shire website ...

2004 – New hospital completed in Ravensthorpe. Ravensthorpe nickel project commences construction at Bandalup Hill. Wind turbine for power commences at Hopetoun.

2005 - With BHP Billiton construction phase, population increases in Ravensthorpe and Hopetoun. A new airport is built between the towns and air service commences.

2006 - Extensive development for housing in Hopetoun and some in Ravensthorpe. Construction of a new school in Hopetoun commences.
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All that development is now shot. Ravensthorpe / Hopetoun had around 1,000+ electors with population growing by 11%+ in past 12 months - till now. :(

Wonder how much all that "extensive housing" will plummet in value over coming months?
 
sails said:
LOL - definitely depends on the Boyz especially with option expiry next week. Fundamentals seem to go out the window...
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Sails, how does the option expiry affect the share price? I just imagine that people would be closing their positions and it depends on the positions that people have as to its effect.
 
aleckara said:
Sails, how does the option expiry affect the share price? I just imagine that people would be closing their positions and it depends on the positions that people have as to its effect.
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Its not the holders that you have to think about. Its the writers of the option, the market makers. They have VERY deep pockets and their aim is to have the option expire out of the money or on the money by pushing and pulling the stocks around. and very often you get stocks "pinned" to a large open interest strike price.
 
aleckara said:
Sails, how does the option expiry affect the share price? I just imagine that people would be closing their positions and it depends on the positions that people have as to its effect.
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Aleckara, TH has explained it in a nutshell. And it's not only BHP - can affect any optionable stock. Then there is the "unwinding" effect that usually follows for a day or more after expiry.

The largest open interest levels don't always work, so it's usually difficult to predict where or if the stock might "pin" at expiry. However, there is often some decent volatility leaving up to expiry.
 
BHP took a knock in Europe as mining stocks retreated on Friday and BHP was downgraded once again to neutral. Still up slightly on the week.
 
How interesting that the Big Australian site is not directly visited by any one since 31st Jan whereas plenty of discussions about Big Australian BHP in other threads.

Any way it was interesting to read the profit announcement from BHP today.

Great Dividend increase 41 % with the money probably saved from Rio bid.
Great reduction in EPS 56%
Great reduction in attributable profit
Great reduction in operational profit
Incrased revenue and so increased bonus for the CEO and Executives.
In News release they have said attributable profit up by 2% whereas the bottom table says it has reduced by 56.5% :confused:

Is it a game that BHPB board is so pleased to advise or I am reading wrong :confused:

Please read the extract from ASX published today.
 

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The bottom line profit is impacted by " impairment writedowns " totalling almost USD4.7b.
This is a non-cash item of course and the co claims that the underlying business is doing well in terms of cash flow and profitability.
Most of the USD4.7b relates to a write down of the Ravensthorpe operation. It's arguable as to how one should view this - I suspect that accounting rules require it to be done this way - will we see a writeback of value if/when Ravensthorpe becomes operational again?
 
Well, it looks like the market was pretty happy with the result.

BHP's SP up 1.6% at this stage, doing rather better than the market as a whole.
 
Has entered BHP short at 31.34 today . silly move? . gotta love a rise on a 50% profit drop ....... blessem

ps . normal stoploss rules apply ... overnight to longer term
position
 
nunthewiser said:
Has entered BHP short at 31.34 today . silly move? . gotta love a rise on a 50% profit drop ....... blessem

ps . normal stoploss rules apply ... overnight to longer term
position
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Looks good if the $32 resistance level is defeated yet again. Overall market trend is down, so a high probability move imo. Would want to bail if that $32 mark is broken and held. :2twocents
 
nunthewiser said:
Has entered BHP short at 31.34 today . silly move? . gotta love a rise on a 50% profit drop ....... blessem
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And that still incorporates timeframe where demand was high, and on top of bleak outlook picture they painted. Last quarter it was weak short term outlook with positive medium term, this quarter it is weak short and medium, at that rate....

Also i don't understand why everyone keeps ignoring the write off of Ravensthorpe mine as if it is another company's wirte off. What's the guarantee that there won't be any other "once off" mines closed in the next half if things don't get better the cost of that is worse than any other high production cost.
 
Doubled short at 32.20 ....... mmmmmmmmmm .....maybe VERY VERY silly ... gawd i gotta do something about this suicide gene i inherited from the bishop
 
nunthewiser said:
Doubled short at 32.20 ....... mmmmmmmmmm .....maybe VERY VERY silly ... gawd i gotta do something about this suicide gene i inherited from the bishop
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I seem to remember you are sometimes a day early - hopefully so this time! Anyway, good luck with the trade...
 
Look at RIO, I sold out last week at $41....look at it this week. I am afraid to sell BHP, afraid that it may do another RIO and keep going up.

I know it is a different kettle of fish but I really don't know what to expect. Your views???
 
Rudy in the EW thread posted an EW chart that looked like a potential break up to highs but later poo poo'd it for some reason.

I still think if $32 breaks and holds we'll probably see an upward thrust, which goes against the other EW analysis of the XAO which they say points down.

Just on BHPs movements, I'd have to consider a long on the break disregardless of the XAO or EW predictions.

Longer term BHP looks like a bearish flag but short term looks positive, and the previous H&S maybe still in play.

:2twocents
 

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To be honest, I'm tempted to go long on BHP.

China's steel production rose for the first time in 6 month. Statistical artifact, or the start of the next growth spurt?

I'm not in yet, but going to be eyeballing BHP and RIO closely for a while... If this is not a statistical artifact, what other shares would benefit from a rise in Chinese steel production?
 
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