BHP - BHP Group

[Miner]

Very interesting Zorro 13 your postings.

A relatively new comer in the forum.

Entered slowly asking people advise.

Then going big bang with crediting on BHP trade as successful prediction.

Almost each posting from you has invited some debate / comments from other members.

You are definitely keeping the forum a bit awake

 

[zorrro13]

Hi Miner, You started it by suggesting That i would work it out lol. I spend the whole trading day in front of my screen everyday for the last month since I jumped in cashed up and after the october crash figuring it would be easy, not true! have taken a few hits but thankfully somewhere nearer to the bottom I hope

 

[noirua]

Why would BHP buy more iron ore via acquisition?

They have an (esentially) infinite resource already that is only constrained by infrastructure and demand.

Energy and copper on the other hand...

Although - a chunky buy-back would be a good start

Hi BSD, missed your question earlier. If BHP buy up iron ore miners at about 10% of their original value, they can mothball the mines and prevent iron ore being dumped at any price.

 

[Sean K]

Is it going to fail yet again at $31 ish, or push through the neckline?

Watching with interest.

Harry tells me I should have bought some at $20 ....

 

[Sean K]

Is it going to fail yet again at $31 ish, or push through the neckline?

Watching with interest.

1149 [Dow Jones] BHP (BHP.AU) looks increasingly bullish on the charts, according to Dow Jones Newswires technical analysis. Follows sustained break of "neckline" resistance from inverse head & shoulders pattern, targeting A$42.00. Former neckline resistance, now at A$30.70, should turn into support. Traders should consider buying with stop-loss below Tuesday's low at A$30.01, with a view to add to longs on a break above major range resistance at A$32.09. While A$32.09 caps, there's a faint chance of a fall to double top target near A$14.00. But scope for a fall is fading rapidly. Weekly momentum indicators are rising with bullish divergence, from oversold levels. Weekly MACD will give a major buy signal if BHP closes firmly this week. BHP is positively correlated with AUD/USD and AUD/USD has also triggered an inverse head & shoulders pattern. Sentiment has reached the point where the majority are so conditioned to being bearish that they are delaying decisions to buy, despite a rising market. BHP will form a significant uptrend if it closes above A$31.00. BHP last up 1.2% at A$31.00. (DWR)

 

[babka]

Kennas, thanks for a detailed chart analyses. I do hope (desperately need to hope) that your charts are right. Your posts are always great to read and to learn something. All the best to you.

 

[outback]

Yeh thanks Kennas. I have one question or query or whatever regarding your upside target of $42.00. My limited knowledge gives me a target a poofteenth under $40.00 Pretty much splitting hairs when we are talking about a 25% increase on today's price, but I'm interested where you get your target from.

 

[white_crane]

I concur with kennas. There has been good volume on BHP in the last month or so, so if it can break the resistance at $32, then I think it will get to about $40 before it reaches another resistance level.

 

[Sean K]

The target of $42 is just a probability based on the inverse H&S. The target is derived from measuring the distance from the head to the neck and then extending that in the opposite direction. Thus the green lines I drew on the chart above. Must stress, just a probability, and it again seems to have failed at the neckline. This region is turning into significant resistance. This means one of 2 things to me. 1, it's going to fail here, or 2, when it breaks through it will probably run pretty hard. Or not....lol


Here's some more info on H&S's from Chart School for anyone interested.

Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal)

The Head and Shoulders bottom is referred to sometimes as an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.

The price action forming both Head and Shoulders Top and Head and Shoulders Bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom. We will look at each part of the pattern individually, keeping volume in mind, and then put the parts together with some examples.

Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior downtrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior downtrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders Bottom formation.
Left Shoulder: While in a downtrend, the left shoulder forms a trough that marks a new reaction low in the current trend. After forming this trough, an advance ensues to complete the formation of the left shoulder (1). The high of the decline usually remains below any longer trend line, thus keeping the downtrend intact.
Head: From the high of the left shoulder, a decline begins that exceeds the previous low and forms the low point of the head. After making a bottom, the high of the subsequent advance forms the second point of the neckline (2). The high of the advance sometimes breaks a downtrend line, which calls into question the robustness of the downtrend.
Right Shoulder: The decline from the high of the head (neckline) begins to form the right shoulder. This low is always higher than the head, and it is usually in line with the low of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack, and the right shoulder will be higher, lower, wider, or narrower. When the advance from the low of the right shoulder breaks the neckline, the Head and Shoulders Bottom reversal is complete.
Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting reaction highs 1 and 2. Reaction High 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Reaction High 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two reaction highs, the neckline can slope up, slope down, or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bullishness: an upward slope is more bullish than downward slope.
Volume: While volume plays an important role in the Head and Shoulders Top, it plays a crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom. Without the proper expansion of volume, the validity of any breakout becomes suspect. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing the absolute levels associated with each peak and trough.
Volume levels during the first half of the pattern are less important than in the second half. Volume on the decline of the left shoulder is usually pretty heavy and selling pressure quite intense. The intensity of selling can even continue during the decline that forms the low of the head. After this low, subsequent volume patterns should be watched carefully to look for expansion during the advances.
The advance from the low of the head should show an increase in volume and/or better indicator readings, e.g., CMF > 0 or rise in OBV. After the reaction high forms the second neckline point, the right shoulder's decline should be accompanied with light volume. It is normal to experience profit-taking after an advance. Volume analysis helps distinguish between normal profit-taking and heavy selling pressure. With light volume on the pullback, indicators like CMF and OBV should remain strong. The most important moment for volume occurs on the advance from the low of the right shoulder. For a breakout to be considered valid, there needs to be an expansion of volume on the advance and during the breakout.
Neckline Break: The Head and Shoulders Bottom pattern is not complete, and the downtrend is not reversed until neckline resistance is broken. For a Head and Shoulders Botom, this must occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion of volume.
Resistance Turned Support: Once resistance is broken, it is common for this same resistance level to turn into support. Often, the price will return to the resistance break, and offer a second chance to buy.
Price Target: After breaking neckline resistance, the projected advance is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the bottom of the head. This distance is then added to the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered, as well. These factors might include previous resistance levels, Fibonacci retracements or long-term moving averages.

 

[chops_a_must]

Looks like they are reading your analysis Kennas.

I still have this trade on... didn't think that would be so... but anyway...

And my trade reasons are a little different.

Originally, I was looking for that gap just below 34.

In the meantime, the H&S has appeared... and it brings into play another partially closed gap above it, about 42. In the beef off the H&S target.

There is a tonne of resistance in the way... so any weakness and I'm likely out if it starts going through the region...

Gaps in blue and the H&S workout in white, for everyone's convenience.

Cheers,

Chops.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Cheers Kennas

Long term hold

Thanks
Gumby

 

[outback]

Than you all. Most interesting. Until recently I invested based on funny mentals. I'm now trying to learn T/A so I can trade a bit. All a barrel of laughs.

Thanks for your patience.

 

[long88]

Hi all,

All indicators are now pointing to upside (MACD (weekly and daily), etc), but we are still in the bear market arent we ?

i presume time will tell here, on what will happen.

 

[noirua]

Hi all,

All indicators are now pointing to upside (MACD (weekly and daily), etc), but we are still in the bear market arent we ?

i presume time will tell here, on what will happen.

I'm still waiting for a major slip in BHP stock and the present Xmas party may continue to the end of January sales. Could prove to be expensive if they start to go strongly negative and shutdown many more mines.

 

[long88]

Today slip for $1, been trying to buy the damm put for the last couple of day.

anyway, wait for monday if it slips again. i will definitely in the ride.

anyone with me ?

 

[nick2fish]

Re: BHP - HP Billiton

neighbor iron ore juniors for sure , but just wondering if BHP would be looking at also expansion to their oil exposure. Diversification seems to be BHPs strength atm. Or maybe a farmin to a couple of exploration elephant grounds (Senegal,Far/Hunt, Offshore Nigeria, ORG/ PLC, NOD/OEL)

Just some thoughts, and we will know in due course Cheers

Looks like OEL's deepwater SC 55 got the nod.
Another great decision by the worlds most diversified miner.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I enclose a chart of BHP , a yearly going back to 1987.

The patient could wait for this to go to $13 or the more aggressive could get in now.

Me, I'll wait for $13.

A chart is enclosed

gg

 

[investedz]

Hi There,

Just wondering if any Tech Analysis people out there could verify an ascending triangle pattern forming (from Nov 19th 2008 to today)?

 

[Boggo]

There is a pattern, however, it has tried again to pass above the high of Dec 17th and failed, it needs to close above 31.67 to be in positive territory.

I am seeing it as a potential short at the moment until it proves otherwise.

Note: this is not any sort of technical analysis or qualified comment, just my view at the moment.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There is a pattern, however, it has tried again to pass above the high of Dec 17th and failed, it needs to close above 31.67 to be in positive territory.

I am seeing it as a potential short at the moment until it proves otherwise.

Note: this is not any sort of technical analysis or qualified comment, just my view at the moment.

I agree, the enclosed chart shows the appearance of a bottoming pattern, but it lacks volume.

It needs to go up beyond $32, on some volume, then retrace and test $32 and move on up on volume before I'd look anywhere beyond a further fall on the monthly chart as I mentioned above.

A chart is enclosed, a daily from recent months.

gg