Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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vincent191 said:
Look at RIO, I sold out last week at $41....look at it this week. I am afraid to sell BHP, afraid that it may do another RIO and keep going up.

I know it is a different kettle of fish but I really don't know what to expect. Your views???
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BHP has already been going up since 27.40, whatever that indicates......
I don't think any one can give you advice on what to do as it depends on your strategy and entry and exit targets, but when i persanally face decisions like that i always ask myself one question - will i be more sorry if i exit now at a profit (presumably) and it carryes on further or will i be more sorry if i don't exit and possibly let some profits evaporate if it goes the otherway or even let a winning trade become a looser, and how i would answer this question to myself will drive my decision.
 
nunthewiser said:
Doubled short at 32.20 ....... mmmmmmmmmm .....maybe VERY VERY silly ... gawd i gotta do something about this suicide gene i inherited from the bishop
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I personally think a short on RIO or FMG may be better, they've had phenomenal runs this week and may even seem overbought (to some). Blame the bishop when things don't go your way, huh? ;)
 
M34N said:
I personally think a short on RIO or FMG may be better, they've had phenomenal runs this week and may even seem overbought (to some). Blame the bishop when things don't go your way, huh? ;)
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:D was long on FMG up till yesterday and figured they had helped the collection box enough as it was :) BHP hasnt donated in at least a week so figured it was time for them to cough up

yeah that bishop has got a lot to answer for i reckon :)
 
im stupid enough to be long on bhp since last failed break of 32.
not a strong finish today too me, but people need to dump their monies somewhere and bugger the banks.
i like the cape ships report.
bhp wont cream the iron ore market, but even a 40pc cut in prices and they will cut a good profit.
u hope all of chinas roads to knowhere etc soak up plentyof cheaper ore.
like build it all now and i9ts way cheaper.
 
shag said:
im stupid enough to be long on bhp since last failed break of 32.
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Doesn't look so stupid at the moment shag. The 28 zone found support again making it harder to beat the next time. Has just kept it's head above 32 which I though was very importat on the 6 mth and 3 yr charts but 1 yr 34 looks equally important, and Nick is saying 33. This chart has a lot of resistance confluence around the same points, but it's not semilog, that may change things a little.
 

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The old girl is languishing a bit, if it can hold it's head above $32ish to create some support there, we may get some clear air for a while. It just never seems to get there though.
 
These are pessimistic times and I'm quite bearish re BHP and believe it could get as low as $12.

This is the only decent support resistance line in the last 7 years.

If it goes below that we are looking at $8-9 as support.

The chart shows a monthly from 1987. I've been generous with the trendline, its worse if you match it up with the lows, so I've hitched it on the closes.

As Kennas mentioned its a semilog which is often better for observing RIO and BHP.

Oh and that $12 may not be this year.

gg
 

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spi futures up 85, strong wall st, mite give resistance at $ 33.20 a nudge and maybe/ hpefully if it can on reasonable volume, hold and possibly push further, but if i was to buy it would probably tank!!:confused::banghead:
 
one thing you have to remember is china needs australia as much as aus needs china presently. the worlds resources are all finite, and aus has a lot of good dirt and sea.
if china doesnt keep its gdp looking ok and look after aus somewhat, not only will they lose face, but 'friends' and opportunities. and we all know they plan for millenia.
i'd love the big australian to hold the 30's, but i don't see it going down past twenty. it held at 24 solidly in pretty desperate times. if its hits 12 then i doubt anyone will be reading this blog.
 
:D Well done all you longies

Has placed 3rd and final short entry . 33.50

gives an avereage of around 33

the bishop is adament that he,s onto a winner so he at one with a slightly larger than average overall position size and at one with taking an overall larger loss.



amen
 
nunthewiser said:
:D Well done all you longies

Has placed 3rd and final short entry . 33.50

gives an avereage of around 33

the bishop is adament that he,s onto a winner so he at one with a slightly larger than average overall position size and at one with taking an overall larger loss.



amen
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That bishop is adamant, isn't it?

Not so sure on the shorts yet, you expecting the Dow to plummet soon? This rally could last a bit longer and I reckon if this stimulus package passes tonight, it may well lead to that big rally. I agree eventually the short will work out in your favour, but why not wait and short at a higher price? Why the rush?
 
M34N said:
That bishop is adamant, isn't it?

Not so sure on the shorts yet, you expecting the Dow to plummet soon? This rally could last a bit longer and I reckon if this stimulus package passes tonight, it may well lead to that big rally. I agree eventually the short will work out in your favour, but why not wait and short at a higher price? Why the rush?
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will be out if it clearly breaks 34

im often a "support and resistance trader , hence the staggered entrys

i often do it when going long also

i can never pick the "exact " tops and bottoms hence the stagger entry at times

i can pick the exact entrys the day after tho :D

no rush , just a trade on what is in front of ME

prolly wrong and happy to wear it also
 
M34N said:
That bishop is adamant, isn't it?

Not so sure on the shorts yet, you expecting the Dow to plummet soon? This rally could last a bit longer and I reckon if this stimulus package passes tonight, it may well lead to that big rally. I agree eventually the short will work out in your favour, but why not wait and short at a higher price? Why the rush?
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M34N,

you assume that passage of the stimulus will lead to a big rally, the last few passages actually resulted in sell offs, yes there were rallies just prior to that but when it eventually passed there were no rallies, yet this time might be different, though listening to various commentaries analysts don't seem too excited about how effective they think this stimulus will be.
 
nikemi said:
M34N,

you assume that passage of the stimulus will lead to a big rally, the last few passages actually resulted in sell offs, yes there were rallies just prior to that but when it eventually passed there were no rallies, yet this time might be different, though listening to various commentaries analysts don't seem too excited about how effective they think this stimulus will be.
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I don't assume the market WILL rally, just that it MIGHT rally. You are correct that it may well go down, and looking at the Dow futures right now, the markets will open down 90 points, but the markets find any excuse to rally or collapse just as hard. My point more-so was why bet on it failing when you may just as well go to the casino and pick red or black?

But nun is, from my observations, pretty good at picking swings (crazy bast*rd :p:), so I was more curious why he picked BHP and why to short it when it's actually only gone higher lately. I still personally think other stocks may provide a better opportunity to short in the next few days, always interesting to hear what other traders do and why. Maybe nun is just a glut for punishment... would explain some of the 'themed' posts he makes in other thread ;)
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
These are pessimistic times and I'm quite bearish re BHP and believe it could get as low as $12.

This is the only decent support resistance line in the last 7 years.

If it goes below that we are looking at $8-9 as support.

The chart shows a monthly from 1987. I've been generous with the trendline, its worse if you match it up with the lows, so I've hitched it on the closes.

As Kennas mentioned its a semilog which is often better for observing RIO and BHP.

Oh and that $12 may not be this year.

gg
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$8, or $9??? i know your charting may rise the possibility of this but certainly the realistic value of bhps assets equate to far more than even $15 ps, even if the market was to bottom at around 3000, maybe 2800 which i think is possible, but def not certain, bhp may trade at $15, but if bhp were to ever trade at $8 in the near future, well i think pigs will fly, china and india and japan and the usa would need some sort of meteorite to wipe them all out and then we might see them levels with bhp :)
 
mitch87 said:
$8, or $9??? i know your charting may rise the possibility of this but certainly the realistic value of bhps assets equate to far more than even $15 ps, even if the market was to bottom at around 3000, maybe 2800 which i think is possible, but def not certain, bhp may trade at $15, but if bhp were to ever trade at $8 in the near future, well i think pigs will fly, china and india and japan and the usa would need some sort of meteorite to wipe them all out and then we might see them levels with bhp :)
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The banks have gone back to pre-boom levels. I can't see why in a commodity downturn we can't go back to preboom levels either for BHP. Its assets are only worth what they can generate and if they don't generate as much cash well then the company is worth less.

Not sure about their cash position and their build up of assets over the boom though. I think that BHP and RIO were slow to react to the boom so I would imagine they were slow to develop the assets as well.

I do agree with one the posts earlier though. It is a tempting short just that the market seems to be going in random directions lately, range trading. BHP is about to break a resistance or bounce off it? I might just wait and see.
 
the banks trade in bad debts, at the very least BHP has oil, gold and power.
whatever happens uranium must hold up to some extent, china etc will build nuc stations to feed the recession.
 
shag said:
the banks trade in bad debts, at the very least BHP has oil, gold and power.
whatever happens uranium must hold up to some extent, china etc will build nuc stations to feed the recession.
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Just like the banks though the expected value of the aggregate of their assets is now worth less. It is a downturn and the share didn't hit $34 until 2006 and rebounded to this level in 2007. Back then the commodities bubble was in full force with the euphoria. The commodities boom has been longer than that by far and now that it has crashed it is still lingering there.

I think that BHP is at best at fair value and it will stay in this trading range. I am thinking of shorting right now although in this market it is hard to predict anything. Of course I could be entirely wrong on this. It did gap higher than yesterday and close lower.
 
However do you actually believe we have fallen below pre-Boom commodity prices and demand i dont think so, what assets have BHP acquired since such time and what new mines and plants have BHP established since pre-boom.

I highly believe that the increase in supply and demand which BHP has obtained has increased significately over the boom while the banks supply and demand have had a trickle down effect of the boom so there increase has not been as significant.

Looking over prices of commodities alot have only dropped to 2006-2007 prices and I'm sure BHP was making an arm and a leg in 2001 with the prices back then
 
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