BDG - Bendigo Mining

[Agentm]

not sure where they will spend it, there is amazing stuff going on with the cross trades every day, been watching it for a week or so now..

different players are lining up, many have named BDG as a takeover target, and not many doubt ed will strike soon.

been holding a handy position on this one, i feel its going to happen before end june.. BDG has nothing in its future, and the directors are basically winging it.. and SBM will find the gold..

enjoying how it pans out, and learning who does what and when...

 

[Feng]

Just had a look at the bdg's website, found the slight changes on the ownership.
The percentage has been increased from 51.16% to 52.18%. Somebody is topping up and somebody is off loading.
Anybody has any thoughts?

 

[The Mint Man]

Some good volume on BDG today, anyone got any idea why? someone topping up again? maybe still positioning to take over?

Todays Vol was 19,703,004. The average for the last 5 trading sessions was just 3,256,211.
In fact todays Volume was more than the last 5 trading days put together, that number being 16,281,059.

Cheers

 

[juiceman]

Somebody thinks bdg has struck gold
Very unusual buying just before close.
They were pushed from .31 to .33 for no reason.

Volume average at 2.5 mil for day,then multiple trades to 4 pm 6 mil
After market large lumps at 2.4 mil 2.6 mil etc etc
Last trade at 4.50 pm?
Total for day 19.7 mil

 

[juiceman]

Last trade at 5.01 pm total for day 20.1 mil
Something fishy going on here late friday after market
Maybee they struck fish (Friday get it )
Any thoughts?

 

[Agentm]

trying to understand the codes, what does LTXT and SXXT stand for in terms of what the codes mean?

the cross trades have been running hot all day, but the finish was spectacular.. maybe its the time sbm made its move?

 

[juiceman]

Don't think it's cross trades because of the individual trades.
Too many of them, and they took out all the sellers.
Last trade now at 5.16 pm tfd 20.33 mil

 

[Feng]

Just checked the volume at 19.00, the volume now is about 21.12m.
as I noticed (not 100% sure), last 10 minutes to close, volume was increased from 3m to 6m, auction time, from 6m to 13m, then after, from 13m to 18m, to 20m, to 21m. cross trade happened three weeks ago.
Just from left hand to right hand, maybe tax purpose, IMO.
Although we have some substantial shareholders change notices, but check all the top shareholders list, not much change at all.
Hope some good things are happening,but.....

 

[Feng]

Just got it from internet:

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=48B2A141-17A4-1130-F5EA243D8DB4CD2D


Rudi On Thursday
FN Arena News - June 20 2007

One of the most frustrating experiences for an investor is making the correct call and still losing money.

And yet, this is not as rare as one might assume. Imagine those shareholders in fledgling uranium producer Paladin Resources (PDN) who saw the shares rise beyond $10 in February only to fall back to below $8 and subsequently rise back to above $10 in April.

Spot uranium stood at US$75/lb and US$95/lb respectively in February and April. Anyone holding on to their shares based on the expectation that uranium prices would go up further has been correct, yet while spot uranium surged to US$135-138/lb Paladin shares dived to near $8 again.

This week saw the shares resume their upward path and surge past $9. According to some market commentators renewed takeover speculation saw some hot money rushing back into the sector.

The first event that got the market excited was a US$2.5bn offer -in cash- by French government controlled Areva for Africa focused uranium explorer UraMin. UraMin has assets in several African countries as well as in Canada. Its main project is the Trekkopje uranium project in Namibia, a country with which investors in Paladin are all too well familiar with.

The main characteristics of this story are that UraMin is still but an explorer who hopes to have a bankable feasibility study ready by year end for its Namibian project plus the fact that Areva is willing to pay in hard, cold cash.

The second event was the news that Russian billionaire Vladimir Potanin, of Norilsk Nickel fame, is joining the race for uranium assets across the globe in cooperation with the Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency. Both partners have reportedly already discovered some interesting opportunities in Uzbekistan and throughout Africa.

So it is takeover speculation rather than the prospect of uranium prices possibly reaching as high as US$200/lb over the next twelve months that is currently driving share prices for the likes of Paladin and Energy Resources of Australia (ERA). The latter is obviously subject to speculation of Rio Tinto (RIO) mopping up minority shareholders instead of selling its subsidiary to a third party.

Merrill Lynch analysts suggested a similar scenario last week when they reviewed the gold sector stating it wouldn’t be long before major league gold producers would start chasing second and third tier producers with low cost reserves.

This week gold specialists at GSJB Were sort of translated the uranium theme into the gold sector. GSJB Were has long forecast that spot gold would reach US$850/oz and the broker has now taken the view that this will still happen, the process has simply been delayed during the first six months of this year.

But shares of gold producers will not necessarily move up in accordance with the gold price, GSJBW believes. Similar to Merrill Lynch, GSJBW has noted that many gold producers are suffering from rising costs and this will eat into their margins.

The broker therefore advises investors should look out for producers who will enjoy rising volumes while keeping cash costs down. This week’s report suggests the broker’s preference is for Avoca Resources (AVO) and Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN).

Other stocks that should perform well, the broker believes, are Newcrest Mining (NCM), Lihir Gold (LGL), Sino Gold (SGX), AngloGold Ashanti (AGG) and Perseverance (PSV), with a special mentioning for Bendigo Mining (BDG).

The analysts believe that at $0.32 shares of the troubled Victorian gold miner have fallen low enough to start looking attractive again (sort of). With the extra remark that risks are still high, GSJBW believes Bendigo is likely to produce a positive news flow over the coming 6-9 months.

While this may have a positive impact on the Bendigo share price, the broker maintains it is rather unlikely for the company to establish a JORC reserve estimate in the near term. Currently, Bendigo Mining’s base valuation is calculated as $0.40 but this could rise to $1 under a positive scenario.

One of the questions that have yet to be answered is whether the same principles apply for commodities whose prices are expected to trend down from here onwards.

Anyone a bet?


Till next week!


Your happy as ever editor,


Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
(as always supported by the Fab Three: Greg, Terry and Chris)

 

[juiceman]

Does anyone know if the $100 million being raised by SBM is going towards a full takeover of BDG?
SBM posted this today
______________________________________________
An Extraordinary General Meeting of the Company is
being convened for Tuesday 26 June 2007 at
10:00am(AEST) at The Westin, 205 Collins Street
Melbourne Victoria, to consider the ratification of the
A$100 million Convertible Note issue announced on 15
May 2007.
______________________________________________

Re the above XGM
Is that the type of forum where their intentions, if any with bdg would be stated, or would that be a bit simple (ie what they want the 100 mil for?
Any thoughts on this :

 

[juiceman]

Just a thought
Larger than normal volume in the last week with some large lumps after market on Friday (mainley put down to end of yr tax issues by ourselves)
Maybee a good time for smoke and mirrors
With the XGM next week it may pay to keep an eye on volume

 

[juiceman]

JP Morgan sells aprox 5.6 mil shares in the last month (a bit at a time)
GSJBW UPS upgrades bdg to hold from sell

 

[Feng]

GSJBW UPS upgrades bdg to hold from sell

hi, Juiceman, where did you get this info from?

Just checked the bdg's web, they updated the ownership this morning.
BUT There is NO percentage change to the top 20 holders.

 

[juiceman]

hi, Juiceman, where did you get this info from?

Just checked the bdg's web, they updated the ownership this morning.
BUT There is NO percentage change to the top 20 holders.

From andrew west; west online
ASX Announcements 1 dated 20 06 the other dated 22 06
cheers
just hit on bdg with your on-line broker and it latest ann's should come up

 

[Feng]

From andrew west; west online
ASX Announcements 1 dated 20 06 the other dated 22 06
cheers
just hit on bdg with your on-line broker and it latest ann's should come up

thanks for your reply.
i am using comsec atm, I do get the ann, looks I missed the one dated 20 06.

Yes, according to the announcement, JP is unloading the shares, but just checked BDG's website, there is no ownership percentage change to the top 20 holders, although the web also says JP is reducing the stake, so where the percentage goes?

 

[Sean K]

I think BDG could be generally under pressure this week due to tax loss selling. It's one of the few stocks that has really suffered and one of the few options people might have to limit tax in such a bullish year. If this was the case then a tactic could be to short the sucker this week, or, if you're a long only player you might find it cheap. DYOR blah blah

(not holding, might be shorting)

 

[juiceman]

I think BDG could be generally under pressure this week due to tax loss selling. It's one of the few stocks that has really suffered and one of the few options people might have to limit tax in such a bullish year. If this was the case then a tactic could be to short the sucker this week, or, if you're a long only player you might find it cheap. DYOR blah blah

(not holding, might be shorting)

While i agree with your thoughts re time of year tax loss's etc
I feel it would be a bit dangerous,only 4 day's to go inc to-day
Sbm xgm today 10am (takeover on or not on) and every-body thinking the same way re end of yr
Risk reward to fine imo
A better play would be inl long at .15 for the same time reasons as above
I just had to throw the last bit in

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Not sure I would short it either. I figure there may be a few stragglers hoping for a last minute sp surge but mostly anyone who wanted out is probably out by now. At 30c SBM is loosing a bit, and is probably close to just the valuation of plant, equipment, and small resource, so I am expecting things to start moving as soon as next week maybe.
Taking off my rose coloured glasses now

 

[OK2]

BDG up today almost 10% and sitting around .35SP

The only news I can see is JPMorgan noting a change in substantial holding, goes a little against the trend of what you would expect but then again who ever understands what plays are taking place in the background!

Anyone care to speculate?

 

[juiceman]

With J P Morgan selling of late, it would be good to know who might be buying (SBM would be good, hope it's not the teachers union in the US.
Good morning volume, on what has not been a good day for the market.
Maybe it's time for a beer at the local pub in Bendigo