BDG - Bendigo Mining

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Profit, do you use fundamentals or tech analysis?


I'm not much of a tech, but falling below $1.65/$1.80 was not good as it may signal the start of another bear period for this stock as it did from early 2004,


From a fundie point of view, stock has a mkt cap of $700m (approx) so it would definately be held by funds, also is a good long term exposure to gold, however its resource is a little complex and it has had industrial dispute problems of recent that have caused delays in first gold pour and also messed up with poduction forecasts,

I'd say hold, but its up to you, surely first gold pour will throw a bit of energy into this stock!

 

[Profitseeker]

Hi,

I try and use a combination of the two. I orginally bought the share .90 and gradually acumulated to 1.20 as I saw the potential in the share as a good investment. My intention has always been to accumulate (whilst keeping a fairly balanced portofolio) as much of this stock as possibility in anticipation of it been in full production as of 2011. However when i saw the stock fall below 2.10 i sold as I technically I thought this showed that the stock could be on the slide. Feelig quite happy that I did. However as i still see the long term prospects of this stock I do want to get back in and I thought I saw resistance at 1.60 and thought that round that level would be a good position to get back in especially with the impending news of gold production. Although I have just seen that it has broken below 1.60 so not feeling so bullish any more and a bit scared that there may be further for this stock to fall before it turns which is why I am thinking of selling my remaining holding. Long term I do belive in this stock 100% though and I am just trying to pick the bottom.

 

[Profitseeker]

Up today. From a tech point of view if this stock closed above 1.65 would that be a sign that the trend could be reversing.

 

[rub92me]

I'm a bit befuddled by this stock, as it doesn't seem to want to recover from the May free-fall nearly as well as the other gold mine explorers. I noticed also that one of the institutional investors had been off-loading quite a bit of it as well. Fundamentally still 100% behind this one so I bought another parcel for around 1.63, with quite a tight stop though. Now if only the gold price would do another 20% rise...

 

[Profitseeker]

I bought some at 1.61 with a long term investment view. I am not trading it at the moment as I feel it is just ranging. If it breaks through 1.65 and looks like holding I would buy some to trade with anticipation of it going on a little run. I am confused as well that the stock has fallen so far and also not recovered. Sure production has been delayed but it is not far now so I would have expected it to get back over $2.00. I think it will and once it starts it will get there with speed.

 

[Profitseeker]

Dissapointing opening considering the price of gold. i was hoping it would be testing the resistance around 1.65

 

[Sean K]

I've been watching this for a turnaround profit. Looks like a long slippery slope on the chart with the next real support level way down at $1.30.

Probably just needs some good news for a turn around. First gold pour should provide that surely. When's that due?

 

[Profitseeker]

Mid July- End July with production beginning in September. DO you really think it could slide to $1.30?

 

[Sean K]

Technically, that's the next support area, but it has shown some good signs recently with the bunching around $1.65 and the flatening and slight rise in MACD, but you want to see some positive divergence above the trend line. Does look oversold though.

 

[Profitseeker]

Thanks Kennas. I am looking for a break past 1.65 as a sign that it has rounded.

 

[Kipp]

Technically, that's the next support area, but it has shown some good signs recently with the bunching around $1.65 and the flatening and slight rise in MACD, but you want to see some positive divergence above the trend line. Does look oversold though.

Kennas, what does a Descending Triangle pattern represent? Is it a bullish or Bearish signal?

 

[Sean K]

With descending triangles there is a greater probability for the price to break down out of the triangle than to breakout and rally to higher prices.

However, general market forces can alter any 'probability' and BDG having just poured it's first bar yesterday, and WWIV about to start in the Middle East, could be a pretty good driver upward.

 

[Kipp]

With descending triangles there is a greater probability for the price to break down out of the triangle than to breakout and rally to higher prices.

However, general market forces can alter any 'probability' and BDG having just poured it's first bar yesterday, and WWIV about to start in the Middle East, could be a pretty good driver upward.

Thanks Kenna... all I needed to know.

 

[Profitseeker]

Bendigo to be $2.50 again within next twelve months?

Glittering outlook for stocksAnthony Black

July 16, 2006 12:00am
Article from: Sunday Herald SunFont size: + -
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ANALYSTS are bullish about gold and oil, particularly at a time of Middle East tension, Indian train bombings and nuclear development programs.

They say high gold and oil prices paint a bright investment outlook for several related stocks in the next 18 months.
The gold price has risen by more 30 per cent this year and was trading at more than $US666 an ounce yesterday. Sean Conlan, of Macquarie Equities, forecasts the gold price to be at $US833 an ounce in 12 months.

"The key fundamental drivers of the current rally remain strong -- global liquidity, fund buying and inflationary fears," Mr Conlan says.

"In addition, this week's conflict between Israel and its neighbours, coupled with the Iranian and North Korean nuclear development programs, have also added further impetus to the gold price.

"Given our bullish stance regarding the gold price in the next 12 months, we expect the Australian gold sector to outperform the broader market."

Mr Conlan says Middle East tension is pushing the oil price towards $US80 a barrel.

"But other events are worth noting," he says. "Political issues in Nigeria are placing constraints on Shell's production supply. The US hurricane season is upon us and is forecast to be one of the worst in history. This may affect the oil supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Russian production growth is beginning to wane in response to the Yukos oil company carve-up hampering foreign investment. Demand from China, though slowing, remains robust."

BENDIGO MINING: Mr Conlan put a 12-month target of $2.50 a share on Bendigo Mining, which closed at $1.56 on Friday.

He says the company forecasts production of between 70,000 and 90,000 ounces next year from a resource base of 11 million ounces.

"Bendigo will earn more from a higher gold price because it is unhedged," he says.

AGINCOURT RESOURCES: Mr Conlan says Agincourt is diversified and is increasing gold production to meet growing demand.

"It offers good value and is trading at a discount to its peers of the same size," he says.

LIHIR GOLD: Carey Smith, of State One Stockbroking, says the PNG producer will lift production from 800,000 ounces a year to a million ounces in the next two years in response to stronger global demand for jewellery, particularly from China and India.

"Gold for more than 1000 years has been considered a safe haven in uncertain times," he says. "It can be easily converted into anything and is a hedge against inflation."

WOODSIDE PETROLEUM: Oil at $US100 a barrel is a distinct possibility and Woodside is Australia's biggest oil and gas producer, Mr Smith says. It has big reserves to meet growing export orders.

AED OIL: Mr Smith says AED will lift production from 15,000 barrels a day to 28,000 barrels in the next 12 months. The company is partially cushioned against oil price falls as 1.2 million barrels are hedged at $US72 for the next two years.

 

[Profitseeker]

Looks like buyers are building this morning although the sellers are still sitting there. I hope there are just enough buyers to smash through 1.65.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Downtrend has continued,

I see strong support between $1.30 - $1.43

So will be interesting to see how stock fares over the coming weeks

 

[rub92me]

I'm stopped out. May come back in at 1.00 but looking for other opportunities first to make my money back...

 

[Profitseeker]

Downtrend has continued,

I see strong support between $1.30 - $1.43

So will be interesting to see how stock fares over the coming weeks

Glad I took a long term investment view on this one. If it breaks 1.40 I think 1.20 is the next support level. With production little over a month away it does blow my mind the way the share price is behaving though. As anyone got any idea why this is occuring? I hope there are no skeletons in the closet.

 

[Profitseeker]

I'm stopped out. May come back in at 1.00 but looking for other opportunities first to make my money back...

At what price did you get in?

 

[rub92me]

At what price did you get in?

Hehehe. Don't rub it in