BDG - Bendigo Mining

[SevenFX]

"A rolling stone gathers no moss..."

"A rolling stone gathers no moss..."

So too is this thread, which seems to attract no interest, possibly because sp trending down 3 days in a row...

Hoping 2 learn something today from the charts and ranging sp...????

Only support I can find to validate why bdg is ranging between 40.5c-41.5c with strength at 41c is back from 15 Feb 1993, yes thats right 1993...???

Love to hear any fundamentals supporting this or different chartists pov.

Thanks
SevenFX

 

[Sean K]

Re: "A rolling stone gathers no moss..."

"A rolling stone gathers no moss..."

So too is this thread, which seems to attract no interest, possibly because sp trending down 3 days in a row...

Hoping 2 learn something today from the charts and ranging sp...????

Only support I can find to validate why bdg is ranging between 40.5c-41.5c with strength at 41c is back from 15 Feb 1993, yes thats right 1993...???

Love to hear any fundamentals supporting this or different chartists pov.

Thanks
SevenFX

Charts out the door for me on this. After such a shock, I just think it's searching for fair value. Impossible to say where that is at the moment because of the uncertainty. Perhaps it's worth the plant, cash, and 3m oz au at the quoted cash price plus 10% for delay maybe? Just a pluck. This might be a great recovery story, but for now it's an explorer with assets already in place to start mining.....

 

[cuttlefish]

possible technical stuff - 50% retrace of gap up from .29 low to .535 high.

also from memory SBM's avg entry from their announcement was .375 - 50% on top of that from the .295 low also gets around the .415 mark.

There was also a lot of heavy trading going through and a lot of action around the .42c mark during trading on the 11th Jan.

 

[SevenFX]

Re: "A rolling stone gathers no moss..."

Charts out the door for me on this. After such a shock, I just think it's searching for fair value. Impossible to say where that is at the moment because of the uncertainty. .

Kennas.

It's the only support I can find at current sp, so can't it be used at all...I always thought the older (and greater touches there is) the stronger it is...????

possible technical stuff - 50% retrace of gap up from .29 low to .535 high.

also from memory SBM's avg entry from their announcement was .375 - 50% on top of that from the .295 low also gets around the .415 mark.

There was also a lot of heavy trading going through and a lot of action around the .42c mark during trading on the 11th Jan.

Cuttlefish.

I didn't think trading in the middle of open/close or high/low had any effect on support or resistance in the future...???? If so can your share experience as I never watch for that...???

So given this runs back up tommorow (despite weak retracement from 55%) we should see roughly 80% chance of it failing at 52.5c, safe profit at 59c with full extension at 65c in the coming days/weeks IMO...

Hows that sound to you C.

 

[Feng]

possible technical stuff - 50% retrace of gap up from .29 low to .535 high.

also from memory SBM's avg entry from their announcement was .375 - 50% on top of that from the .295 low also gets around the .415 mark.

There was also a lot of heavy trading going through and a lot of action around the .42c mark during trading on the 11th Jan.

hi, cuttlefish,
SBM's avg cost was 0.348 on their announcement.
BTW, as I remember, only 6m shares traded at 0.29 on 9th, Jan.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: "A rolling stone gathers no moss..."

Cuttlefish.

I didn't think trading in the middle of open/close or high/low had any effect on support or resistance in the future...???? If so can your share experience as I never watch for that...???

Basically price action is a psychological thing - the more a stock trades at a particular price level the more people that are psychologically 'attached to/aware' of that level. So if intraday volume was high around a certain price level then thats as relevant as end of day price from my perspective. It could also be a reflection that that is a level at which larger players see value based support as well.

That being said I'm not a technical analyst and use technicals as a secondary to fundamentals so probably not the best person to ask.

So given this runs back up tommorow (despite weak retracement from 55%) we should see roughly 80% chance of it failing at 52.5c, safe profit at 59c with full extension at 65c in the coming days/weeks IMO...

Hows that sound to you C.

can't help you there either as I'm not too strong on the technical side of things (as per comments above).

 

[cuttlefish]

hi, cuttlefish,
SBM's avg cost was 0.348 on their announcement.
BTW, as I remember, only 6m shares traded at 0.29 on 9th, Jan.

thanks - my mistake on the average price - wow not a bad effort to pick up 10% at that level was it!

not sure of the volumes, but it opened at .29, ran up to 36 ish and then back down to bounce off the .29 support and close around the .30 mark - so .29 is a psychologically important price level to my mind.

 

[ricm]

a quick deviation from the current discussion, but thought some of you may be interested...


If u are fortunate enough to have foxtel/optus, there is currently a good documentary doing the rounds on the national geographic channel. "tau tona: city of gold"

Gives a great insight into a south african mine featured, (name eludes me atm) and for those not familiar to the logistics of an underground gold mine, this will definetly give you some humbling perspective in what u are actually investing/trading in, regarding underground mining.

The mine has been operational and profitable since the late 1940's, reaches over 3km(or miles?) down into the earth, averages 10 earth quakes per day, +34 degree tempretures are experienced at the stoping face, along with unpredictably definable boiling hot aquifers, and to top it off, alot of it still mined by hand in less space than is under my desk. Plus a whole lot more other interesting facts.

Makes you marvel at the guts of the miners and organisaton of the management! Check it out if u can.

cheers
R

 

[toc_bat]

without seeing the doco i ask the following q's

are the miners poor black south africans? mining in an exploitative way that was established and acceptable during the apartheid years.

is it their guts or their financial destitution that makes them go down there every day?

 

[Accaeric]

a JP Morgan analysis values BDG at 36c, it would lead sp to that level

 

[rub92me]

a JP Morgan analysis values BDG at 36c, it would lead sp to that level

Well, maybe they're looking to buy some? Would be interested to see their valuation method.

 

[Sean K]

Would be interested to see their valuation method.

I reckon! How the hell do you come up for one for this now? Must be based on the plant and cash in the bank. They must have used an approximate resource estimate for the project.....would be interesting to know what it was.

 

[SevenFX]

Would be interested to see their valuation method.

I would be more interested to see their valuations at the 74c, 1.29 & perhaps the 2.49 mark the days before it fell rapidily... as not much reference to them when SP falls.

Do they (or bigger clients) have a stake in BDG....and how close are their valuations to plant and equiptment...????

Just because they're big broking houses, doesn't mean they get it right...

 

[Accaeric]

I would be more interested to see their valuations at the 74c, 1.29 & perhaps the 2.49 mark the days before it fell rapidily... as not much reference to them when SP falls.

Do they (or bigger clients) have a stake in BDG....and how close are their valuations to plant and equiptment...????

Just because they're big broking houses, doesn't mean they get it right...

This is the case, as i remembered, NLX fell dramatically due to bad news, the broker valued NLX at round 4cent, it did fetch as low as 3c. Market participants are influenced by those brokers especially big one.

anyway, hopefully it wont happen to BDG

 

[Jrowl]

Yes they have valued BDG as everything sitting in a parking lot. All the equipment & cash at 36cents. Oh one thing they forgot to value in is the 11million ounce inferred resource which is worth more than the equipment and cash combined by a factor of 10.

 

[Compol]

'Top 20 holders' need to get behind SBM now if they want to go forward. Forget flirtation with class action; this is lawyers wanting to suck them dry!

 

[SevenFX]

I see someone has already placed their buy order for 1.3m ($482,400) at 36c...and patiently waiting...

SevenFX

 

[britishcarfreak]

I'm still holding - with an average entry price of 77c.

I'm tempted to buy a large packet at 38c or so with the potential of recovering my initial losses if it goes back to 55c. Is this madness or sanity? It seems to be a thin line.

Perhaps I should just dump it and play with other stocks that are swinging. Anyone else thinking of buying more to offset loss?

 

[Sean K]

I'm still holding - with an average entry price of 77c.

I'm tempted to buy a large packet at 38c or so with the potential of recovering my initial losses if it goes back to 55c. Is this madness or sanity? It seems to be a thin line.

Perhaps I should just dump it and play with other stocks that are swinging. Anyone else thinking of buying more to offset loss?

I think the time to do that was when it opened up off 60%...

However, if you've got a long term vision there's potential here. A takeover/merger with SBM seems a real possibility, and if not there could be a bidding war between SBM and another company pushing the sp up.

I've read that the plant and cash on hand value this company at about 35 cents. Seems like there's limited downside - but hey, I said that when it was at 80 cents...

 

[Accaeric]

I think the time to do that was when it opened up off 60%...

However, if you've got a long term vision there's potential here. A takeover/merger with SBM seems a real possibility, and if not there could be a bidding war between SBM and another company pushing the sp up.

I've read that the plant and cash on hand value this company at about 35 cents. Seems like there's limited downside - but hey, I said that when it was at 80 cents...

It likely hit 34.5 -36 c shortly