BDG - Bendigo Mining

Sean K · 4 January 2007

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Stopped out at 74c on CFD's about $2500 loss

But then its one of my first losses in awhile so

But then when I was choosing which CFD to go after I picked between BDG and PEM(@$3) so

What a dog!

Whoof whoof.

Should rise now I reckon YT

I think you've been unlucky with the timing.

$2.5k will just offset some of those capital gains. No sweat!

Jrowl · 4 January 2007

Lets look at the facts

The fall from $1 was due to dilution of the stock by 12.5% which brought it down the $.80 level. There are some more concerns BDG may offer some more stock to sell but since they are already now pouring gold, they shouldn't need to do this anymore.

Market cap at $.73 is 361,665,747 divided by 11,000,000 is $32.87 dollars per ounce. They have alot of assets such as a crushing plant and mine in place which cost 60 million approx and other assets. That would bring the gold in the ground if you subtract the cost to about $25 an ounce. Most jounior mines have only poked holes in the ground, have no mine built or anything and their share price to ounces in the ground is higher than BDG and there is still a question mark if they will ever mine the gold. BDG are going to mine the gold, they would not have spent 10 tens of millions to build a plant if they were not going to mine the gold. I think compared to other mining companies out there none represent the value compared to bdg.

SevenFX · 4 January 2007

If this was my wife, I would have filed for divorce some time back, nor matter what she said was going to happen in the future or what great qualities she had...

Only Kidding, I prob give here a second & third chance : , but not for this share.

No Emmotion, Just Profit.

Trade What You SEE, Not what you FEEL. RIGHT...???

Jrowl · 4 January 2007

At $.73 people are capitulating which generally means a bottom. I think if you can buy gold for $32 an ounce which there is a good chance of it being dug up, it's almost as good as gold in the hand minus the expensive price.

The Mint Man · 4 January 2007

SevenFX said:
If this was my wife, I would have filed for divorce some time back, nor matter what she said was going to happen in the future or what great qualities she had...

Only Kidding, I prob give here a second & third chance : , but not for this share.

No Emmotion, Just Profit.

Trade What You SEE, Not what you FEEL. RIGHT...???

fair enough, but
1. I see decent figures and a chance at a very good profit.
2. I feel your fear but I do it anyway (see your sig) :

cheers

SevenFX · 4 January 2007

Jrowl said:
At $.73 people are capitulating which generally means a bottom..

Hi Jrowl,

I not trying to run this stock down at all, just calling it as I see the chart.

It's been said, were at the botton 4 a while now and I nearly bought into that at the 80c consoledation mark..... even called it wrong when trend changed intraday to 85c back then.

I'm of the opinion it's still got some more to fall, b4 trend will change....

SevenFX said:
Agree it certainly not a shabby stock, even thought some aren't in favour of current management....

Guess the question was being asked all the way down "how much Lower can it go"...???? which not many thinks it will fall further, as there seems to be more of a chance it will turn up, than further down.

IF it falls further perhaps .71c would be a 2 year support, or worse still .58c being a 2/6/11 year support... which is not likely at all.

Cheers
SevenFX

Just IMO
Cheers
SevenFX

SevenFX · 4 January 2007

The Mint Man said:
fair enough, but
2. I feel your fear but I do it anyway (see your sig) :

Hey TMM.

You must have plenty of money aside.... and hope it pays off 4 you.

Are you in profit on BDG or in loss Mint Man....????

SevenFX

Jrowl · 4 January 2007

Yes I do aggree too, the chart doesn't look fantastic at the moment, but it is undervalued so I will stick with it. It could goto .50 cents.

SevenFX · 4 January 2007

Jrowl said:
Yes I do aggree too, the chart doesn't look fantastic at the moment, but it is undervalued

I 2 agree it is well much undervalued, and only 2 happy to buy in, just after confirmed trend change.

I have been watchin this for some time, and sure many others have 2.

SevenFX

Dr Doom · 4 January 2007

My calcs show a value of the gold in the ground (at current prices & costs) for BDG of approx $4.00, AFTER I have discounted the resources by 50 %.
There are a couple of things to keep in mind here -
- All of the capital raising's have been well supported by some big insto's
- these insto's and other 'smart' money are quietly sitting on the sidelines ready to top up.
- Tech analysis largely becomes meaningless here, the same as when a company is going up logarithmically: depends solely on emotion and greed (going up)& worry (going down).
As long as you have some idea of the companies real worth (at current conditions eg POG) then you wait for the emotion to subside and jump in when the action starts, or keep tight stops, which is probably what's happening now eg stops getting triggered.

Capitulation time is close

SevenFX · 4 January 2007

Dr Doom said:
- Tech analysis largely becomes meaningless here, the same as when a company is going up logarithmically: depends solely on emotion and greed (going up)& worry (going down).

Hi DD.

Isn't Everything factored into the Chart, Inc Sentiment, esp on a stock like this....??????

Cheers
SevenFX

Dr Doom · 4 January 2007

SevenFX said:
Hi DD.

Isn't Everything factored into the Chart, Inc Sentiment, esp on a stock like this....??????

Cheers
SevenFX

Not in this case I don't think. Depends if you think TA leads the way or follows the market. The current chart doesn't appear to factor in the next announcement being good, but (the market) is surmising that there will be more bad news. I still think it is capitulation by weak hands. Depends on your pain threshold I suppose. But if you invest in gold stocks you have to expect sudden price movements - both ways. As an aside, I'm still holding some stocks that have been showing a loss for months, but are starting to get re-rated by the market for their potential. Goes to show that if the fundamentals are there, and barring any catastrophic news (& I don't think the downgrade is) then eventually the rest of the market catches up.

DD

The Mint Man · 4 January 2007

Considering the day we had on the market today, I dont think BDG faired that badly!!
I mean BDG only lost 2% by days end compared to mostly 4% (and up to 6%)by other companies on my materials watchlist.
Those others being the likes of:
ZFX -6.27%, BHP -4.36%, RIO -4.24%, LHG -4.44%, NCM -4.48%, OXR -4.10%, SGX -5.94%, AAO -4.76%... etc etc etc.the list goes on.
So 2% not so bad after all!!!

cheers

barney · 4 January 2007

Dr Doom said:
My calcs show a value of the gold in the ground (at current prices & costs) for BDG of approx $4.00, AFTER I have discounted the resources by 50 %.
There are a couple of things to keep in mind here -
- All of the capital raising's have been well supported by some big insto's
- these insto's and other 'smart' money are quietly sitting on the sidelines ready to top up.
- Tech analysis largely becomes meaningless here, the same as when a company is going up logarithmically: depends solely on emotion and greed (going up)& worry (going down).
As long as you have some idea of the companies real worth (at current conditions eg POG) then you wait for the emotion to subside and jump in when the action starts, or keep tight stops, which is probably what's happening now eg stops getting triggered.

Capitulation time is close

Hi Dr D (You look like a friend I once knew!!) .......... Re the Capitulation ......... I said in my previous post I could not find anything on the chart to give me hope ........ but ............ after today I see something interesting ........... don't know whether you guys give much creedence to the Ch. Oscillator, but I've found it to give some very interesting "preminitions" ................ I think your capitulation theory is close to the money .............. Any idea at what stage the next ann. re the mine etc. is likely to come out?? ........ I suspect we may not be far from a corrective bounce on BDG ...see graphs below ......... Good luck to holders, Barney.

The Mint Man · 4 January 2007

Just noticed this in the news section of comsec:

Date: 4/1/2007
Author: Barry FitzGerald
Source: The Age --- Page: A12
Speculation about a management restructure has forced Bendigo Mining's share price to its lowest level since late 2004. Cost overruns and overestimated reserves at the group's historic Victorian goldfield have coincided with conjecture about whether the chairman and MD are leaving the company. Bendigo shares closed at $A0.75 on 3 January 2007, down 53% compared with early 2006.

It appeared in both 'The Age' and 'The Sydney Morning Herald'. I think Barry Fitzgerald wants to get in a bit cheaper before it runs

barney · 4 January 2007

The Mint Man said:
Just noticed this in the news section of comsec:

It appeared in both 'The Age' and 'The Sydney Morning Herald'. I think Barry Fitzgerald wants to get in a bit cheaper before it runs

That looks "Bullish" to me as well .......... Never trust a Journo I think I might get back in tomorrow ..... there's something brewing. Actually he is doing us all a favour in the long run .....SP is down, but you know what they say ....... Any advertising is good advertising (Look at AWB for eg.)

The Mint Man · 4 January 2007

As a reply to the quoted material in my above post I would like to point out the following which can be easily found by reading BDG's announcements. The media chooses to turn a blind eye to this, instead making up stories.

From the BDG announcement titled 'The Way Forward' dated 19/10/06
The reserve downgrade does not impact the 11 Moz Inferred
Resource.
• The Company is confident grades will increase from less than 9 g/t gold
to an average life of mine grade of around 12 g/t gold as development
moves from the known lower grade reefs in the southern portion of the
field into the higher grade central and northern portions of the field.
• The reserve downgrade will impact the short term production plan and
cashflow, but does not materially impact the long term value of the
Bendigo Project.
• The operational focus will be on:
– Mining the developed reefs and confirming grade expectations in
2006/07 of around 7 g/t gold (+/- 25% on a monthly basis),
– producing in the order of 50,000 oz of gold this financial year,
– improving the flexibility of the mine plan by focussing equipment
and personnel into exploration and development at the Kangaroo
Flat Mine, and
– in line with this strategy, we will slow the development of the
Eaglehawk Mine for up to 12 months.
• The reserve downgrade was a result of the removal of low-grade
stockwork1 mineralisation from the resource envelope. Low grade
stockworks would never have been extracted by the historic miners and
it is material that Bendigo Mining will also ignore.
• The review has now aligned the interpreted ore outlines with drilling and
development results, demonstrating that more reliance can be put on
the information gained from drilling; potentially reducing the need for
ongoing and costly bulk-sampling and enabling improved testing of new
targets. This is a significant step forward.
• The Company has a fully-manned underground mine with significant
operational momentum, a commissioned 600,000 t/y gold plant, a mine
plan to access higher grade reefs and an exploration plan to outline new
reef positions. The Company’s plan is to create significant value
through the development of Australia’s historically second largest and
high-grade goldfield.

IMO, this Barry FitzGerald is only saying things that have already been said before which are not true. As for the Speculation about a management restructure, got any proof of this? and if this turned out to be true, who knows? this could be a good thing after all!!

any comments people?

cheers

The Mint Man · 4 January 2007

barney said:
Any advertising is good advertising (Look at AWB for eg.)

True. come to think of it... they (BDG) have been in the press 3 times over the last week or so, The Age, Telegraph and herald.

$20shoes · 5 January 2007

My take on BDG sees today as being potentially very significant. We finished yesterday with a Doji candle. Although the black candle the day before was not overly large, most would agree it was significantly bearish (breaking support) and coming after two months of churning. You can see Thursday's doji found support on a long-term down-sloping support line. So, could we see a morning star develop?? (today's candlestick would need a long white body which closes in the top half of the body of Wednesday's bearish candle).
Of course, the flipside is we may see a breach of that support line, and a likelihood she'll move down to the 60c range.

Or, of course she could keep heading SE even if she does respect that line. Hmmm, we'll wait and see.

PS - what a world of pain I've found myself in with BDG

$20shoes · 5 January 2007

and another pic...

BDG - Bendigo Mining

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