BDG - Bendigo Mining

[The Mint Man]

take a look at who is on newcrest mining's board...

R. Bryan Davis

Non-Executive Director
Appointed to the Board in March 1998.
Bachelor of Science Technology (Mining) from the University of New South Wales. Mr Davis is a former Executive Director of Pasminco Limited. He is Chairman of Bendigo Mining Limited, a Director of OneSteel Limited and Coal & Allied Industries Ltd, a Fellow of AusIMM and a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Mr Davis is Chairman of the Safety, Health and Environment Committee and a member of the Audit and Remuneration Committees.

Other Directorships:

Chairman of Bendigo Mining Limited from September 2004, Director of OneSteel Limited from December 2004 and Director of Coal & Allied Industries Ltd from September 2000. Previously Chairman of Indophil Resources N.L. from November 2000 to April 2005.

Hmm, interesting. Maybe he can have a word with newcrest about a takeover
good to see we have got some connections though.

cheers

 

[Sean K]

Hmm, interesting. Maybe he can have a word with newcrest about a takeover
good to see we have got some connections though.

cheers

This is very promising IMO. M&A activity on BDG could be a real possibility and I am backing NCM, unless they want to be taken over themselves....This is a bit speculative, but I have read several articles over the past few months on potential targets and both NCM and BDG have come up. As LHG have done, perhaps one of them need to start taking steps to save their company, or be swallowed. As soon as I see some unusual volume on BDG I'll be topping up.

 

[michael_selway]

This is very promising IMO. M&A activity on BDG could be a real possibility and I am backing NCM, unless they want to be taken over themselves....This is a bit speculative, but I have read several articles over the past few months on potential targets and both NCM and BDG have come up. As LHG have done, perhaps one of them need to start taking steps to save their company, or be swallowed. As soon as I see some unusual volume on BDG I'll be topping up.

PE is still so high!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -3.5 1.6 1.0 4.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 1.6 47.5 --
Year Ending 30-06-08 1.0 76.0 -37.5%

thx

MS

 

[Sean K]

PE is still so high!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -3.5 1.6 1.0 4.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 1.6 47.5 --
Year Ending 30-06-08 1.0 76.0 -37.5%

thx

MS

MS,

What's the pe based on? Is this out of the company reports, reported by Comsec?

Perhaps it's because BDG haven't started making $$ yet. I don't think they will for another 3 years. Sorry, need to look back through it myself, but they have only just started pouring gold, ramping up to full production in 2008 I believe, so no wonder it's low. And, this is where I believe the full value of BDG is as a TO target. It's all set and ready to ramp up as POG goes on to all time highs (maybe) with a market cap equiv to some goldies who's mines are going out. Would like to see a pe for them based on full production and $1000 POG in 2009. Unhedged.............

At the same time, there are a few risks. Another downgrade could send them to the sin bin.

 

[Jrowl]

LOL, junior mining doesn't have PE, they don't have earnings yet. The way you value a junior gold mining company is divide the total resource estimate by their market capitalisation and subtract the cost per ounce to produce. BDG has 495,433,780 shares at closing price today of .785 cents per share today which is a market cap of $388,915,517. Divide by 12,000,000 ounces of gold is $32.30. So your buying one ounce of gold in the ground for $32.30 worth of shares. The estimated cost of producing the gold is $360 an ounce, current market price for gold is $800 an ounce so there is a profit of $440. So for every $32.30 worth of shares you buy, $440 will be returned to you assuming over the mine life they extract all the 12 million ounces of gold and gold stays at $800 per ounce and cost of production stays at $360 per ounce.

 

[Dr Doom]

LOL, junior mining doesn't have PE, they don't have earnings yet. The way you value a junior gold mining company is divide the total resource estimate by their market capitalisation and subtract the cost per ounce to produce. BDG has 495,433,780 shares at closing price today of .785 cents per share today which is a market cap of $388,915,517. Divide by 12,000,000 ounces of gold is $32.30. So your buying one ounce of gold in the ground for $32.30 worth of shares. The estimated cost of producing the gold is $360 an ounce, current market price for gold is $800 an ounce so there is a profit of $440. So for every $32.30 worth of shares you buy, $440 will be returned to you assuming over the mine life they extract all the 12 million ounces of gold and gold stays at $800 per ounce and cost of production stays at $360 per ounce.

I would be conservative and use the 11Moz inferred for the calcs,which gives you $35. Also I think the cost has increased to somewhere in the $400's, - can you check this as I can't find it. Even so, that still gives you (at $400) profit of $400 /oz.

Also, there is potential for further reserve addition through exploration and better grades, as the historical grade is up around 17 oz/t, whereas BDG are budgeting at 7 oz/t. So let's look at it from another perspective ie the chance of an upgrade to historical grades, and you have a mine with approx 20M oz. Lots of potential, very oversold in current climate.

Calcs at 20M oz = $20 returning $400 :

 

[Profitseeker]

Hmm, interesting. Maybe he can have a word with newcrest about a takeover
good to see we have got some connections though.

cheers

This is the article that really gets me excited considering the connection:

Newcrest Mining eying off local buys
Thursday Oct 26 14:24 AEST

Newcrest Mining is considering local acquisitions while preparing itself for any possible takeover approaches amid a strong future outlook.

Newcrest Mining's chairman Ian Johnson told shareholders the outlook for the gold and copper miner is positive, despite going industry cost pressures.

"The outlook for the company in 2007 and beyond remains strong," he told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting.

But the resources boom had resulted in "continuing upward cost pressures at all of the company's operations".

Chief executive Ian Smith said future expansion may come from mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

"We're pursuing opportunities for early entry M&A with several local companies," he said.

He also said after the meeting that Newcrest should be in a position to announce a memorandum of understanding with another entity "in the next couple of weeks".

Mr Johnson also told shareholders the company had recently updated a prepared target's statement, in case of a possible takeover approach.

"The phone hasn't rung, we're just getting ready," Mr Johnson said.

"Every several years (the target's statement) is updated at great lengths and that was done this year ... at a week or two's notice we can send it out to shareholders."

Mr Smith added that he was not expecting an approach in the short-term.

"We're attractive to various groups but I wouldn't expect an approach in the foreseeable future," he said.

"If there was to be an approach it would come from the gold sector and I think they're all fairly well-occupied."

Mr Smith, who joined the company earlier this year, also said Newcrest is looking at its hedging position, which has prevented it from taking advantage of spikes in the gold price.

"We're looking at opportunities to change the profile of the hedge book," he said.

"By Christmas we should have a definitive decision."

Mr Johnson told shareholders that the underground mine at its troubled Telfer project in Western Australia has completed construction.

"This is now ramping up and should achieve name plate capacity by March 2007," he said.

Newcrest declined to give earnings or production guidance at the meeting, saying it would provide some forecasts in its quarterly production report on Monday.

 

[The Mint Man]

:iagree:
Tese coments in particular stand out like dogs balls to me

Chief executive Ian Smith said future expansion may come from mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
"We're pursuing opportunities for early entry M&A with several local companies," he said.

One question though. What does he mean by 'early entry'?
early entry, as in before a company hits it's straps?
If so then I would say BDG fits the glove perfectly! IMO

cheers

 

[Profitseeker]

That is how I read it mint man and they would have all the inside knowledge from their man on the board.

 

[Dohes7]

BDG reached a new Low today! Really need some positive announcements soon!

 

[fma007]

Yeah - anyone know when any news is due? whats in the pipeline?

Thanks

 

[Sean K]

BDG reached a new Low today! Really need some positive announcements soon!

Almost a 10 year low!!!!!! And is coming into production when POG is probably moving onto greater highs.

Real negative opinion about the stock out there at the moment.

Interesting that on the one year chart the MACD has been climbing for a few months, and just turned on this 10 year chart.

(I'm holding - I like frustration and pain)

 

[rub92me]

These guys need a good PR person pronto. Dare I suggest they approach our feathered friend? A cute picture or two with some recently poured gold wouldn't hurt either.

 

[The Mint Man]

Almost a 10 year low!!!!!! And is coming into production when POG is probably moving onto greater highs.

Real negative opinion about the stock out there at the moment.

Interesting that on the one year chart the MACD has been climbing for a few months, and just turned on this 10 year chart.

(I'm holding - I like frustration and pain)

I cant agree more, coming into production, 11mil ounces, further exploration to come etc. POG gone back up to around $640 and BDG goes down???
Im holding, seems to me that there is more reason to hold then sell at this point in time.

cheers

 

[Jrowl]

In my opinion, if you sell this stock, it will shoot up like a stock does when you sell. I think this is the bottom for the stock.....

 

[barney]

I cant agree more, coming into production, 11mil ounces, further exploration to come etc. POG gone back up to around $640 and BDG goes down???
Im holding, seems to me that there is more reason to hold then sell at this point in time.

cheers

Howdy MM, This sure is a frustrating stock. I've tried my hardest to find something positive on the chart, but there's nothing. Plus last two days, SP dropping on increasing volume; POG down overnight ......... "Not happy Jan"

I guess the only thing is, it can't get too much lower ....... can it

Bumpy ride I suspect, but if it runs, seat belts may be required!! Good luck all, Barney.

 

[Sean K]

Howdy MM, This sure is a frustrating stock. I've tried my hardest to find something positive on the chart, but there's nothing. Plus last two days, SP dropping on increasing volume; POG down overnight ......... "Not happy Jan"

I guess the only thing is, it can't get too much lower ....... can it

Bumpy ride I suspect, but if it runs, seat belts may be required!! Good luck all, Barney.

I agree Barney, in that, I think that once a positive broker report and a confirmation of resources come out then this could change direction very quickly. Senitment is way way off. Plus, once the market is sure the 11m oz is actually there, perhaps a predator will look more seriously at it, if they haven't already. It has a market cap of less than most U explorers with 'prospects' at the moment and it has $7 ish billion in the ground about to be dug up, less costs. Of course, another hint of a reserve downgrade and who knows where it'll end up!

 

[Dr Doom]

Good looking weekly chart, esp the MACD. 12 months time we will look back and see a good accumulation opportunity. Hang in there comrades

 

[The Mint Man]

It probably didnt help that the Daily Telegraph (saturday 30th dec) had a list of the best performing Resource stocks but just happenend to mention BDG as the worst.
I cant find the article on the net so I will have to write it, I will just write the bit concerning BDG as it would take forever for me to write the whole lot.

Resource stock end up on top
"The stocks that benifited most strongly included Zinifex [up 173 per cent], Kagara [207 per cent] Minara [208 per cent] and Jubilee [109 per cent], " he said. [edit: 'he' being Damian Graham, head of Australian equities at Macquarie Private Portfolio Management]
However not all companies shared in the commodities bonanza.
Gold explorer Bendigo Mining slipped 53 per cent to finish bottom of the list, with centennial coal [down 25 per cent] and consolidated mineral [down 30 per cent] also ranking in the bottom five.

However if I was looking for a gold company to invest in then (after some research) I would seriously consider buying BDG after reading that, as they have had their fall. Whats been going on lately is childs play IMO and I dont think it will go much further. Considering where it has come from (52 week high of $2.60 ) then I would say BDG has more UP sides then down sides. But Im not going to go back over all the reasons I say this, instead:
Check this out - 2006 (BDG) AGM address to shareholders, my favorite page is number 13 or slide 8 as it shows just how good this mine is!!! but there are plenty of other reasons that this is a good share.... one simply being the fact that they have a workforce to get the work done.
Anyway have a read of that Im sure you will see what I mean.

Cheers

PS: you can find a better quality copy on your brokers web site but I thought I better put this one up for the lazy people.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Stopped out at 74c on CFD's about $2500 loss

But then its one of my first losses in awhile so

But then when I was choosing which CFD to go after I picked between BDG and PEM(@$3) so

What a dog!