i hope your right, but im not confident enough to sell my holding now and re-enter IF it falls to those levels. With about $60k worth, the risk of miss timing the situation and selling now and then not getting a rebuy oportunity far outways my rewards for just holding.
People need to be aware of the short term downside here. Do not under-estimate the potential downside if Euroports does not settle. I'm not being alarmist. I just don't want to see people whinging and carrying on if we see BBI and BEPPA down near the November lows. If it doesn't happen, well and good. We then move on and await DBCT news.
It must concern you though that around the positive speculation in this thread, people are failing to understand the true situation.I stand by that 100%. When a forced bank sweep is in place, you are in quasi administration. It doesn't mean you are history. It doesn't mean investors cannot make a fortune out of it.
I have offered rationale behind my opinion, rationale which you seem to either overlook or ignore. You are welcome to comment on specific points I have made if you wish.Now drsmith, myself and others are still waiting with baited breath for some concrete figures that back up your opinion. If you cannot provide figures, your opinion is not worth very much even though you are entitled to have one.
I suspect your knowledge of the BBI fundamentals are so lacking that you don't have figures to back your opinion up. Prove me wrong.
It must concern you though that around the positive speculation in this thread, people are failing to understand the true situation.
I have offered rationale behind my opinion, rationale which you seem to either overlook or ignore. You are welcome to comment on specific points I have made if you wish.
1) Asset writedowns.Show me how they lose $4Bn worth of equity to make BEPPA worthless?
As I said over at HC, I'm back in BBI at average 7.4c and I have no idea if that will hold but what I do know is that at least one of the big buyers is back in action chomping away. By the course of sales data, they seemed to acquire about 10M today and they took out about 3M on the close and it finished at 7.9c.
For a good example to the contrary, review posts 1783, 1820 and then finally the first post on page 80.Dr Smith,
What you fail to understand is that we do understand the true situation but you cant understand that we do understand, yet accept it for what it is.
You commented that you sold out of BBI at circa 17c but you did buy back in at average 7.4c post the corus news. See the above quote.
You must have taken a stop loss opportunity or do you still hold them?
All BBI followers, please take note I will not be responding to anymore posts by "select" or "drsmith". They are clearly only coming onto this thread to stir so if I don't take the bait anymore, please understand.
1) Asset writedowns.
2) Lenders charging more for credit upon refinance thereby reducing (or eliminating) unitholder equity over time.
3) Lenders accepting equity in exchange for credit with the result being a severe dilution for existing unitholders.
With covenants, arn't they only in relation to existing debt agreements. What happens when the debt is due to be renewed ?
Also, how do you think BBI's directors will act if faced with a choice between sacrificing their own jobs and sacrificing existing unitholder equity in any restructure to satisfy lenders ?
Just a minor correction....Apologies as I havent been able to speak with Helen yet, simply snowed under at work.
Dr Smith-Whilst you are entitled your views, I must admit that I have not seen any reasonable data supporting these.
Regarding your points above:
Writedowns-The assets are not revalued and cannot be compared to a property trust, apples and pears. What writedown do you estimate for total BBI assets overall? I estimate a net positive of $2B on top of existing NTA ie about $4B NTA, what about you. (I have previously posted my rationale for this number). What is the NTA per your calcs after all writedowns??
Debt-Coversion of debt to equity is beneficial for BEPPA. As for increased interest charges, $4B of net (ie income less increased expense) additional expenses in the form of additional interest cost have to be incurred before BEPPA is affected one cent.
At a sky high rate increase of 400bps, that equates to $100B of debt for one year or $10B of debt for 10 years before the $4B of NTA is wiped out. After that 10 years BEPPA will be affected for the first time.
Dilution of equity holders, well I dont hold equity. But then I agree I will give up 40 cents of the $1 face value so I get paid 60 cents. Even then I am losing 40 cents in the $
As a final observation I think a previous poster summed it up nicely. I think you fail to understand that we do understand the risk profile of BEPPA and BBI and invest accordingly. In my case I have set aside funds to take advantage of short term price movements.
Cheers
I still have BBP in my watch list and I scratch my head every day! There is a share that by my back of the envelope sums has no asset value left after debt.
And they continue to trade at a premium to BBI.
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