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drsmith,
You refuse to back up your assertions with facts. Until you do that, I will not reply to any post you write from this point on.
If that's the case then why have BBI's directors become quasi administrators (as you describe it) in trying to sell essets to pay down debt and why have they ceased disrtribution of income/interest to security holders ?
Perhaps they see the risk of administration as being greater than 5%.
As far as I am concerned, I am looking for BEPPA to mature and then accept reset terms.
BEPPA holders: What would you say to the following if it were offered to you some time in 2009/10 after DBCT and PD Ports are sold?
Convert every BEPPA held into 35c cash and 2 BBI securities.
Hypothetical of course but would be interested in the thoughts of BEPPA holders. Remember of course that if that proposal was passed, it would indeed help the price of BBI as well as any threat of massive dilution in 2012 disappears. This hypothetical proposal dilutes BBI by another 1.6Bn shares but also eliminates $800M worth of debt.
Personally I would vote YES.
Also BB are you able to attach that spreadsheet with stress test figures, im really interested to see it, thanks
To me this proposal is more persuasive if it come six months before BEPPA matures together with a warning that they don't have the money to pay it out.
I'm doubtful that it plays out this way, at least not if they are really good at the game. What they should do is pay out the interest on BEPPA and then start to make market purchases on small amounts of BEPPA each quarter. They should buy just enough (maybe $25M to $50M/quarter) to get a great price, and not so much as to significantly move BEPPA up. At $25M to $50M/quarter, they can buy over half the amounts due at maturity probably at very distressed prices. Buying a dollar of debt for 20-to-50 cents should be an important part of their strategy for getting out from the weight of it. If they buy too much too soon then they won't be maximizing peoples' fear of being paid back, which would work against them here.
Unfortunately you will not get that opportunity in my opinion. A restructure is on the cards. Time will tell.
why don't you all stop living in fantasy land and start living in the present.
this thread is a seriously weird read.
I am living in the present. We are all shooting in the dark as we await BBI Full Year Results announcement in the last week of August.
I do not want my BEPPA to convert to BBI at all with the current SP. It is not in my best interests. The issue of more BBI will hugely dilute current BBI holders and will also lower the share price. Do you think it strange that I am looking after my best interests as an investor?
Of course, if DBCT sells in the next ~3 months and the cash sweep is consigned to history (we hope), then BBI can buy BEPPA on market at a massive discount. (oh yeh? BBI management told you this personally?)
Until SPARCS is settled/paid out/converted, I doubt that anything can be done with BEPPA anyway.
And mate, you aren't an investor. With BBI, you are a merely punter hoping for a positive asset sale.
Don't kid yourself.
Sorry Largesse but there are different kinds of investors.
Some buy and hold long term blue chip shares (some of those people have been smashed in this market both in Aust and O/S)
Other Investors buy on fundamentals and hold the company until they see a change in those circumstances (eg a drop in profits or divs and they sell out).
Other investors look for undervalued companies and invest, the expectation being that eventually the rest of the market will catch up. In this instance there is obviously risks that the potential is very realised or that the company deteriorates instead of improving.
In each instance above investors can and do lose money. Nothing is a sure thing no matter what your strategy.
Each individual classes themselves differently and has different objectives, evaluation techniques and projected price targets (each person is entitled to their position).
Just because you dont see potential in BBI/BEPPA and others do doesnt mean that they are not "investors". I consider myself an investor in BBI/BEPPA as I am holding in the expectation that the potential will be realised by the rest of the market, fundamentals will involve and so will the share price.
P.S. I also know there are people who hold BBI/BEPPA who would consider themselves traders (and as above each person, based on their own circumstances can class themselves as they wish). But to generalise and say we are "punters" is wrong and an uninformed comment.
Thanks for the lesson, but I was already aware that there are a range of 'investor' classes.
However, PUNTING ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN OUTCOME, does not, and will not ever, fall into a class of investor.
That, is just called gambling.
And all this ridiculous talk of "oh when this asset sells for that much above book value and management decide to convert my BEPPA into $0.xx dollars and XX BBI shares I will do this/that" is no better than a bloke at the TAB hypothesizing which flavour of beer he's going to buy after dog 4 in race 8 comes good at Cranbourne. Actually it's probably worse, because at least the punter is certain what his odds were when he took his bet.
And just because you move in and out of a stock more than once, doesn't make you a trader either.
Delusional.
What is wrong with discussing potential asset sale prices and the likely outcome?
This is similar to discussing the potential impact of a rise in revenue/net profit for a retailer or the impact of a potential merge between RIO and BHP operations
Whether or not you reply to my posts is up to you. It's no skin off my nose one way or the other.drsmith,
You refuse to back up your assertions with facts. Until you do that, I will not reply to any post you write from this point on.
Would I accept 2 shares and 35c in 6 months time if BEPPA is at 30c...?
If BEPPA hit 30c, I would imagine DBCT and the GPFRs went well, and the company is "guaranteed" to survive... and that the world economy would improve enough for BBI to get a $300M loan for June 2012....
Which means, given that hypothetical situation... I would expect $1.20 in June 2012...
If I was offered 60c in 6 months time...
Or VERY LIKELY of getting $1.20 in 2.5 years time..... surely I would pick wait 2.5 years ->since I would finish Uni and need money in 2.6 years......
In other words... if someone offered you a (IMHO) low-risk opportunity to double your money in 2.5 years... would you take it? I think I would.... For me its the difference between $25,800 and $12,900. Surely I would pick $25,800... and let my profits run... right? (Am I convincing me or you, hmmm)
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