BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

banska bystrica · 9 July 2009

ricee007 said:
What do you base this on? Just the fact that the market thinks BBI is in trouble, and ASF thinks it should be okay? Or?

Reading the financial reports, I really do have a hard time seeing administration. They are covering their debts.... they have significant net assets... they have some awesome assets...???

I think talk of administration is just worst case scenario talk. I believe the chance of BBI going into administration is less than 5%. At the moment they are in quasi administration. That is, what would be happening in admin is happening now. No asset purchases and most assets for sale at book value or better, some a touch under book value ie PD Ports.
The banks have the sweep in place so there is no point in formally putting them into admin and remember, they have not yet breached any debt covenants.
Once asset sales eventuate, and they will, BBI will be leaner and meaner and BEPPA holders who bought at under 20c will be laughing all the way to the bank.
BEPPA is the outstanding play in the hybrid sector right now. I cannot find another hybrid that has more upside and the risk profile is not that great despite what the market might be trying to tell us. The market in BEPPA is just plain inefficient. Simple as that. The fear factor of anything BNB associated is huge. Without the BNB influence I am sure BEPPA would be trading at 20c+ now.

persistentone · 9 July 2009

My broker in the US is telling me that Australia is a scripless system where no physical stock certificates are ever issued. They said everything is done through a registration entity named Computer Share. Can anyone reflect on that for me? Is it right?

The reason I care is in the event of an administration, I just would fear a situation where I hold shares through a broker who holds shares through a custodian, and somewhere along the way the symbol gets delisted and the custodian fails to connect my shares back to any any new entity that gets issued as a replacement for the originals. Establishing clear ownership of the shares to my name becomes important, particularly when you consider that you could come out the other side of administration with something that is five to 20 times the value of what you paid.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

cpsharky · 9 July 2009

Hi Persistance,

Correct that we use a scripless system here. The system is called CHESS which is run by the ASX. They keep a record of holders and allocate a HIN (holder identification number). They will issue a paper record of your transactions. Investigate the CHESS system on the ASX site and you should get the info you are after.

The companies on the ASX generatlly use one of two third party companies to handle all of their share registry functions. BBI uses www.linkmarketservices.com.au rather than Computershare. You are able to check your holdings on this site.

All seems as safe as houses (errr... you know what I mean ) to me.

By the way, if you do manage to find an Aussie lawyer (sorry I can't help), would be very interested in a summary.

Cheers.

random · 9 July 2009

If you are a company, fund, institution or other which happens to have some money to spend on buying a fine investment piece of infrastructure you would most certainly be having a deep and meaningful look at dbct.

Such animals still do exist and they are not as few and far between as many believe,DBCTwe here know is a great business especially with its phase 7 expansion completed.
In this period of doom my understanding is that the coal companies are still at full capacity producing all the coal from Qld that they can mine. There is no shortage of production (or demand from the international community) even though we are in a sense not effected due the guaranteed income stream we have in place.
So if I have the do ray me to spend in my opinion now is the time to buy.
Yes,i would take the step forward now.
The theory that i would be able to screw the administrators is dreaming.
It assumes that it is just me interested in buying or perhaps a handful of others and i personally don't believe this is the case for a moment. There would be great interest. In fact even more potential buyers would come out of the woodwork.
As "persistentone" states it is the timing that is important. That works both ways you know!
Here today gone tomorrow. You can't assume it will be there tomorrow to buy.
This is an opportunity for many to buy at a good price and as i have said previously you don't have to screw the seller to purchase a property and be happy with it.
I for one am confident that a buyer will step forward and buy at a price which truly reflects the value of dbct.

Today i have topped up once again my holding in beppa.

Mitsimonsta · 9 July 2009

Nice to see a bit more strength in BEPPA today.

Random, you pushed the price up :

Volumes still rather low however.

nathanblack · 9 July 2009

persistentone said:
Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Can i ask how did you get your name "persistentone"? you seem anything but persistent in your posts.

banska bystrica · 9 July 2009

random said:
If you are a company, fund, institution or other which happens to have some money to spend on buying a fine investment piece of infrastructure you would most certainly be having a deep and meaningful look at dbct.

Such animals still do exist and they are not as few and far between as many believe,DBCTwe here know is a great business especially with its phase 7 expansion completed.
In this period of doom my understanding is that the coal companies are still at full capacity producing all the coal from Qld that they can mine. There is no shortage of production (or demand from the international community) even though we are in a sense not effected due the guaranteed income stream we have in place.
So if I have the do ray me to spend in my opinion now is the time to buy.
Yes,i would take the step forward now.
The theory that i would be able to screw the administrators is dreaming.
It assumes that it is just me interested in buying or perhaps a handful of others and i personally don't believe this is the case for a moment. There would be great interest. In fact even more potential buyers would come out of the woodwork.
As "persistentone" states it is the timing that is important. That works both ways you know!
Here today gone tomorrow. You can't assume it will be there tomorrow to buy.
This is an opportunity for many to buy at a good price and as i have said previously you don't have to screw the seller to purchase a property and be happy with it.
I for one am confident that a buyer will step forward and buy at a price which truly reflects the value of dbct.

Today i have topped up once again my holding in beppa.

Spot on random. A great summation of the likely bidding process for DBCT. There are multiple interested parties and the super keen ones will not be trying to screw BBI on price. They will only end up shooting themselves in the foot. A price circa $2.8Bn is on the cards in my opinion. That would clear all the non recourse DBCT debt and $1Bn of corporate debt. That would make BEPPA home for the tea money and circa 30/40c.
The smart/right money was buying BBI at 15c a short time back but Corus put a spanner in the works.

persistentone · 9 July 2009

nathanblack said:
Can i ask how did you get your name "persistentone"? you seem anything but persistent in your posts.

I guess it depends on your timeframe. I'm definitely not like some annoying salesperson who grabs hold of you and will not shut up. I do develop goals and never give up on those. Think persistence in the long-term....

nathanblack · 9 July 2009

persistentone said:
I guess it depends on your timeframe. I'm definitely not like some annoying salesperson who grabs hold of you and will not shut up. I do develop goals and never give up on those. Think persistence in the long-term....

so your more ambitious than persistent, that makes sense. where in USA are you?

i think BBI is heading into over sold territory, not much downside but offers potential upside. but still a spekky, so i wouldnt expect too much large buying even at this level. thats why volumes are down.

random · 9 July 2009

Mitsimonsta said:
Nice to see a bit more strength in BEPPA today.

Random, you pushed the price up :

Volumes still rather low however.

If only it was so that i pushed up the price mitsimonsta.

I am now happy with my lot though.
I am not a big player in this game but if the end game is anything like i feel it will be I will be able to fullfill my dream of going skiing whenever i want wherever i want.
My life is a simple one these days.
I'll be a happy contented ski bum.

As nathanblack says bbi is definitely in oversold territory now. Although i don't have any anymore I suspect it will recover a bit even before we get any sale news.

Cheers

persistentone · 10 July 2009

nathanblack said:
so your more ambitious than persistent, that makes sense. where in USA are you?

i think BBI is heading into over sold territory, not much downside but offers potential upside. but still a spekky, so i wouldnt expect too much large buying even at this level. thats why volumes are down.

Ambition just means you want something. Plenty of ambitious people are impatient and give up too soon. Persistence means you stick with something until you get it right.

cpsharky · 10 July 2009

persistentone said:
Ambition just means you want something. Plenty of ambitious people are impatient and give up too soon. Persistence means you stick with something until you get it right.

Wise words.

Patience and persistence is needed with BBI I believe.

Smile. Blink. Smile. Blink. Smile. Blink... enough letters yet?

nomore4s · 10 July 2009

persistentone said:
Ambition just means you want something. Plenty of ambitious people are impatient and give up too soon. Persistence means you stick with something until you get it right.

cpsharky said:
Wise words.

Patience and persistence is needed with BBI I believe.

Smile. Blink. Smile. Blink. Smile. Blink... enough letters yet?

That's fair enough but I'm not sure how that applies to BBI or any stock for that matter. Patience and Persistance can lose you alot of money in this game.

There appears to be alot of unbridled enthusiasm on this thread for BBI & BEPPA but when I look at the chart all I see is a dog. There is also a very good chance this stock won't even be around in 12 months time, the risks with this stock are very real - so there is still alot more possible downside with this stock.

random · 10 July 2009

Enthusiasm for this stock....yes.
Unbridled enthusiasm ....no.

Most are well aware of its predicament and are riding the wave.

fuzzie · 10 July 2009

nomore4s said:
There appears to be alot of unbridled enthusiasm on this thread for BBI & BEPPA but when I look at the chart all I see is a dog. There is also a very good chance this stock won't even be around in 12 months time, the risks with this stock are very real - so there is still alot more possible downside with this stock.

Most of the thread is about ascribing a value to a beaten down stock. It is not an exercise in charting.

Agreed the chart alone looks bleak, but if I squint I can see a double bottom forming as well as a head and shoulders. A little more bumping along the bottom and presto a big upswing is possible.

Mitsimonsta · 10 July 2009

You can make a chart say whatever you want it to.....

Anyway, we've hit 10.8c for BEPPA. been a few weeks since I saw it that high. Volumes looks to be rising also.

Possibly some leakage from the Silver Doughnut?

persistentone · 10 July 2009

Mitsimonsta said:
You can make a chart say whatever you want it to.....

Anyway, we've hit 10.8c for BEPPA. been a few weeks since I saw it that high. Volumes looks to be rising also.

Possibly some leakage from the Silver Doughnut?

The current rise seems to be an absence of sellers rather than a presence of buyers. Volumes are very low today. Look at July 7 and July 8, where there were 400K to 800K shares trading in narrow time windows, but the stock didn't rise significantly.

I would not make much of a price rise that doesn't have large volumes of buying behind it.

Mitsimonsta · 10 July 2009

There was quite a bit of buying early, but that early activity has now tapered off.

I'm actually not phased by the current rise. I mean it is nice and all, but the volume is definitely not following yet.

persistentone · 10 July 2009

cpsharky said:
Hi Persistance,

Correct that we use a scripless system here. The system is called CHESS which is run by the ASX. They keep a record of holders and allocate a HIN (holder identification number). They will issue a paper record of your transactions. Investigate the CHESS system on the ASX site and you should get the info you are after.

The companies on the ASX generatlly use one of two third party companies to handle all of their share registry functions. BBI uses www.linkmarketservices.com.au rather than Computershare. You are able to check your holdings on this site.

So HIN tracks the individual or company that owns the shares. What does the SRN number track? Who issues the SRN, and why should I want one?

awg · 10 July 2009

The SRN is only issued to a holder if the shares were not acquired via a broker, such as in the case of a public float of a company, like CBA, or TLS.

In this case an SRN is issued.

If the shares are purchased via broker, a HIN is issued.

that is my understanding.

This should not be a problem for you, as you would purchase thru a broker and have a HIN, I assume.

to my understanding anyway, further details.

https://www-au.computershare.com/investor/faqs.asp?bhjs=1&fla=0&Category=Issuer+Sponsored

https://www-au.computershare.com/investor/faqs.asp?Category=CHESS+/+Broker+Sponsored

BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

banska bystrica

persistentone

cpsharky

random

Mitsimonsta

nathanblack

banska bystrica

persistentone

nathanblack

random

persistentone

cpsharky

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

random

fuzzie

Mitsimonsta

persistentone

Mitsimonsta

persistentone

awg

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