BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

hardyakka · 6 May 2009

banska bystrica said:
I think RIO are very long odds. I would be very surprised if they were on the shortlist of three.

DBCT fits QIC's investment criteria perfectly. I also see a consortium involving Macarthur Coal as a definite possibility.

DBCT is an prime infrastructure asset located in QLD, so I see QIC as being a lead member of a consortium bidding for the asset. Consider, over time the predictable regulated income stream matches increasing superannuant income demands and there is political benefit if income generated in QLD is retained for the benefit of Queenslanders.

Secondly I would guess a consortium of the miners, including BHP and RIO. I do not see either of the big miners (BHP or RIO) seeking outright control of the asset.

Thirdly I would see some of the big offshore pension funds in a consortium with some Australian funds. From the pension fund perspective it is a regulated steady income stream that is an exposure to a base resource near major markets in a politically stable economy.

Cheers

banska bystrica · 6 May 2009

Very smart accumulation happening in BBI/BEPPA. The buyer just cleaned out the stack at 11c and did the same in BEPPA at 12c.

Mitsimonsta · 6 May 2009

Until the prices dropped this afternoon BB.....

Rule number 1 of buying into BBI/BEPPA - wait until 2pm or later

investorpaul · 6 May 2009

Mitsimonsta said:
Until the prices dropped this afternoon BB.....

Rule number 1 of buying into BBI/BEPPA - wait until 2pm or later

It happens every day.

People jump in all excited in the morning and then after lunch it tappers off.

Rule 2 if you want to sell BEPPA sell in the morning.

ricee007 · 7 May 2009

Clearly it's 5 hours to open... but it's interesting to see what early indications are, and if they often hold true...

137,000 sellers at 0.12
150,000 at 0.13
100,000 at 0.135
203,000 at 0.14
1 at 0.145
50,000 at 0.15
55,000 at 0.185
60,000 at 0.194
15,000 at 0.2
110,000 at .21.
Then Others Off Screen.

Total 1.7M sellers, 3M buyers.

But, most expensive buyer is at 0.113 -<Lower than yesterdays close.

This shows that there may be plenty of accumulators. This generally means that the current price is likely to be supported, and, hopefully, push slowly but steadily up. It's hard to see it fall, barring any bad news.

Another indicator of this is the fact that there are 6 individual buyers at 10c, averaging only $3,000 each.

It seems that relativly few people are willing to sell BEPPA, resulting in only upward price movement, till any bad news (if any) is released.

I'm a bit dissapointed we haven't seen massive gains, since we are well inside the 20days M.Avg for SPARCS. But, it still climbed a bit yesterday -<Just not massivly.

IF BEPPA holders don't reduce... It'll take less than $17,000 of trades before we are up to $0.13, up over 14% today. This just depends on how desperate some BEPPA holders are to sell....

Similar story, just more pronounced, with BBI.
*50* individual buyers at 10c, buying 4.2M BBI.
22.3M buyers, 18.4M sellers.

Dow Jones +99, FTSE+55, HangSeng+404, NASDAQ+6, Nikkei+149, S&P+15, SPIFutures+8.

My prediction: Green day, especially given overnight USA jobloss news being good... and, an especially green day for BEPPA, and a pretty good green day for BBI.

Time will tell just how useless predictions with 5 hours to open are

mark_au · 7 May 2009

ricee007 said:
Clearly it's 5 hours to open... but it's interesting to see what early indications are, and if they often hold true...

137,000 sellers at 0.12
150,000 at 0.13
100,000 at 0.135
203,000 at 0.14
1 at 0.145
50,000 at 0.15
55,000 at 0.185
60,000 at 0.194
15,000 at 0.2
110,000 at .21.
Then Others Off Screen.

Total 1.7M sellers, 3M buyers.

But, most expensive buyer is at 0.113 -<Lower than yesterdays close.

This shows that there may be plenty of accumulators. This generally means that the current price is likely to be supported, and, hopefully, push slowly but steadily up. It's hard to see it fall, barring any bad news.

Another indicator of this is the fact that there are 6 individual buyers at 10c, averaging only $3,000 each.

It seems that relativly few people are willing to sell BEPPA, resulting in only upward price movement, till any bad news (if any) is released.

I'm a bit dissapointed we haven't seen massive gains, since we are well inside the 20days M.Avg for SPARCS. But, it still climbed a bit yesterday -<Just not massivly.

IF BEPPA holders don't reduce... It'll take less than $17,000 of trades before we are up to $0.13, up over 14% today. This just depends on how desperate some BEPPA holders are to sell....

Similar story, just more pronounced, with BBI.
*50* individual buyers at 10c, buying 4.2M BBI.
22.3M buyers, 18.4M sellers.

Dow Jones +99, FTSE+55, HangSeng+404, NASDAQ+6, Nikkei+149, S&P+15, SPIFutures+8.

My prediction: Green day, especially given overnight USA jobloss news being good... and, an especially green day for BEPPA, and a pretty good green day for BBI.

Time will tell just how useless predictions with 5 hours to open are

gday ricee007, the only thing that we can predict with certainty is that we're both up too early in the morning LOL

But indeed, things are looking a lot better.. the news from the states is getting more positive (unless the car industry implodes further). The RBA here was optimistic (in spite of what Turnbull was trying to say on the 7:30 report last night). So all in all, things may be on the way up including bib and beppa.. ;-)

ricee007 · 7 May 2009

I'm in Leeds (UK) (till July, since January) Only 10PM here.

Regarding general sentiment dragging BBI/BEPPA...

All Major Markets are green.

AU$1 Buying USD$0.7482 (up 0.0075!)... and, even better, 0.4946 GBP (up0.0049, ).

1 AU is 1.28NZDollasr, which, as I understand it, is also good news for BBI -< up .1.

BEPPA buyers/sellers haven't changed in the last two hours (much).

banska bystrica · 7 May 2009

ricee007 wrote: "I'm a bit disappointed we haven't seen massive gains, since we are well inside the 20days M.Avg for SPARCS. But, it still climbed a bit yesterday - Just not massively."

How on earth do you expect massive gains when they still haven't sold DBCT or PD Ports? They haven't reduced their debt substantially so nothing is happening to the BBI/BEPPA price until we get some concrete news. We might go up or down a few cents here and there but until corporate debt gets reduced in a big way, we will not see 25c+.

ricee007 · 7 May 2009

banska bystrica said:
ricee007 wrote: "I'm a bit disappointed we haven't seen massive gains, since we are well inside the 20days M.Avg for SPARCS. But, it still climbed a bit yesterday - Just not massively."

How on earth do you expect massive gains when they still haven't sold DBCT or PD Ports? They haven't reduced their debt substantially so nothing is happening to the BBI/BEPPA price until we get some concrete news. We might go up or down a few cents here and there but until corporate debt gets reduced in a big way, we will not see 25c+.

People believing that the higher BBI goes, the less dilution there will be. It's in the holders of BBI's interests to want BBI price to be particularly high now. Even more so than normal.

Isn't it? Is any of my analysis incorrect?

The 'leak' to the FinReview regarding 3 solid buyers also did little for the shareprice -<I thought that may have had a bigger impact. Why is "concrete news" a necessary precursor for a significant increase in shareprice? Leaks and rumours help substantially. To be honest, I expected more rumours floating around this week, as was rumoured on here that that might happen. Turns out, only one leak (that I am aware of) was leaked (the FinReview's article).

Finally, I would call 15c a very substantial gain (One that I thought was optimistically achievable by now) (I wasn't realistically hoping for 25c).

Do you think it was unnreasonable to have hoped for BEPPA to be 15c by now?

So, in conclusion... how could I have thought that BBI could have increased 'massively' since 20days prior to SPARCS meeting. (for example, from 9c to +50% higher at 13.5c)... on leaks of DBCT sale, pressure on BBI due to SPARCS meeting, market sentiment improving dramatically (look how high the ASX has climbed recently -meaning credit will be easier to obtain in the nearer future).

BBI looks set to open at 11c. This is a greater than a 22% increase. This is significant. Yes, I was hoping for even more (and, still believe that BBI will rise today), but, I was right in expecting it to rise fairly significantly... just not as much as I had hoped.

Does that make sense?

ricee007 · 7 May 2009

banska bystrica said:
ricee007 wrote: "I'm a bit disappointed we haven't seen massive gains, since we are well inside the 20days M.Avg for SPARCS. But, it still climbed a bit yesterday - Just not massively."

How on earth do you expect massive gains when they still haven't sold DBCT or PD Ports?

Like I said, in the 20 days before SPARCS meeting, i was hoping for a 'massive gain'.

BBI has increased from about 9c (would 8.9c be a fair call?) to currently 12c.

That's a 35% increase.

So, yes, that's a significant gain....... 35% probably, to be fair, is probably 'massive', but I was more hoping for 50%. Hence, my statement alluring to the fact that we've had good gains, just not as massive as I had hoped. I suppose we still have over a week left though.

And, just for laughs, BEPPA jumped to 12.5 (pushing 13c, as that's lowest sell offer, with well over twice as many buyers compared to sellers)...

So, About 9.5c - 12.5c... Or, a significant gain, of over 30% for BEPPA.

So, how can I expect 'massive gains' in the 20 days prior to SPARCS meeting? We are, ATM, ~+35% and ~+30% already, with over a week left.

That's how.

Largesse · 7 May 2009

Ok, i have now (finally) taken my position in BEPPA. So probably best all you guys sell now.
Am sufficiently comfortable with global macro at the moment to wade into the market. BEPPA makes me a bit more comfortable knowing that I'm ranking ahead of equity holders. Short term trading is looking strong enough.

In and holding until maturity.

Largesse · 7 May 2009

just a bit of strategic planning here aswell:

Should SPARCS elect to convert into common equity, would it be reasonable to expect a big switch out of BBI into BEPPA? SPARCS conversion is in effect doubling the size of the equity pool, would make a few people pretty uncomfortable if they have picked up longer term holdings in the last few months.

Similarly, if SPARCS elect to rollover and not convert, would we expect a migration out of BEPPA from holders that were hedging their bets so to speak, and are now more comfortable that the potential dilutionary effect has been removed?

banska bystrica · 7 May 2009

Largesse said:
SPARCS conversion is in effect doubling the size of the equity pool

Don't agree about doubling the size of the equity pool. More like adding 10% to it.
I sold some BBI this morning at 12c and bought BEPPA at 12.5c. Trying to buy some more at 12.5c but a few bids jumped in front at 13c.

investorpaul · 7 May 2009

Quiet a good day for BBI and especially BEPPA.

It was good to see BEPPA close near its highs 0.133 c (high was 0.135) and BBI 0.12 (high of 0.125).

Hopefully there is more green tomorrow , there will probably be some more resistance once/if it heads towards 15c in my opinion.

I still have room to accumulate more units before my avg hits 10c and will prob look to do so if we see another dip. Interesting times ahead.

Largesse · 7 May 2009

investorpaul said:
Quiet a good day for BBI and especially BEPPA.

It was good to see BEPPA close near its highs 0.133 c (high was 0.135) and BBI 0.12 (high of 0.125).

Hopefully there is more green tomorrow , there will probably be some more resistance once/if it heads towards 15c in my opinion.

I still have room to accumulate more units before my avg hits 10c and will prob look to do so if we see another dip. Interesting times ahead.

Not that technicals are really much use on these kind of stocks but to me next resistance for BBI is 14c and BEPPA is 15c

hardyakka · 7 May 2009

Nice to see BEPPA move the way it has, my only whinge is that it is getting harder and harder to pick them up at a price below 12 cents My strategy is now to simply hold and wait.

There seems to be a lot of concern regarding dilution of BBI if the SPARCS vote does not go through, with many wanting to switch to BEPPA. My view is that SPARCS is irrelevant and if anything will provide a buying opportunity should many BBI holders panic.

Either way I agree with BB on this issue in that the key issue is the asset sales, and should SPARCS not go through the effect on the BBI price will be a few cents maximum only..big deal.

Either way the impact for BEPPA is neutral if SPARCS goes through or positive if not (BEPPA will have higher priority ).

Cheers

Mitsimonsta · 7 May 2009

Largesse said:
Not that technicals are really much use on these kind of stocks but to me next resistance for BBI is 14c and BEPPA is 15c

After today's trade, I tend to agree with you, but maybe not so much as a 'technical' resistance, but in more of a market 'Mental' resistance.

I think we have a pretty solid support set at 10-10.5c on both BBI/BEPPA, I doubt it will get back there unless bad news (SPARCS not being reset mainly, but also PD ports with a low sale price, or difficulty in refinancing other projects elsewhere) hits the market.

It will be interesting to watch tomorrow. I have a feeling that we are going to see yet another 'ASX Profit-taking Friday' which should knock off approximately 1c off the price of BEPPA anyway. Unless the US goes gangbusters again tonight, and then the US futures hold up during our trade, there will be alot of day traders and short-term holders cashing out for the weekend.

So, prediction is BEPPA closing the week at 12.2c - lets see how right I am.

hardyakka · 7 May 2009

Mitsimonsta said:
So, prediction is BEPPA closing the week at 12.2c - lets see how right I am.

The results of the US stress tests on banks will be released tomorrow and the comment from the Fed is that they will reassure the market, positive double speak.

I think we will see an upward movement of a cent or more, this is because of the above and the substantial buying volumes in BBI. Any day trader trading IMO is now irrelevant as positions are being built by some big players.

The SPARCS vote if anything will cause persons to move from BBI to BEPPA thus resulting in upward price pressure. But then to me SPARCS is minor issue.

Cheers

Elvis3577 · 8 May 2009

Hi guys!
I'm just a new member to this thread. And I've been studying the BBI pages with great interest.And even though a lot goes over my head ( especially most abbreviations and the math/ economics ), I'd like to think that I get the core message:
Yes there's a great risk to this share, yet there 's some healthy foundation to it.
Yes there's a lot of panic, hence the highly undervalued share price.
( Market trading to some degree is pure emotion and has got nothing to do with the company's performance )
So to me this , in general , is an opportune time to become a millionaire.
And I've been on the 'other side' , where I've lost about a 100 grand about twelve years ago. The opportunities ahead though , are unheard of. It definitely beats working for a boss from 9 to 5....
So in the spirit of ' nothing ventured nothing gained ', I've refinanced the house and bought just over 1M BBI / BEPPA shares in the ratio of 6:1.
And I've put them away safely in my 'July1 2012' drawer. Simply betting on their survival....
Worst case scenario.... I'll break even.

ricee007 · 8 May 2009

Elvis3577 said:
Hi guys!
I'm just a new member to this thread. And I've been studying the BBI pages with great interest.And even though a lot goes over my head ( especially most abbreviations and the math/ economics ), I'd like to think that I get the core message:
Yes there's a great risk to this share, yet there 's some healthy foundation to it.
Yes there's a lot of panic, hence the highly undervalued share price.
( Market trading to some degree is pure emotion and has got nothing to do with the company's performance )
So to me this , in general , is an opportune time to become a millionaire.

So in the spirit of ' nothing ventured nothing gained ', I've refinanced the house and bought just over 1M BBI / BEPPA shares in the ratio of 6:1.
And I've put them away safely in my 'July1 2012' drawer. Simply betting on their survival....
Worst case scenario.... I'll break even.

First, I appreciate your spirit.

But, sorry, did you say 5M BBI and 1M BEPPA? That is an interesting choice. BEPPA is a safer investment than BBI.

At conversion date, with BEPPA, you are (assuming company is going along ok) guarantteed a 900% (or so) return on investment. With BBI, you are risking your $500,000 or so, (hoping to make much more than 900%, but.)...

If I had as much balls as you, I think I'd still play it a bit more safer.

BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

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