BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

[investorpaul]

One must keep in mind the risk/reward ratio. The higher the risk, the higher the potential upside so obviously the strike rate will be lower when following this end of the market than if you were buying the ASX 100. That's just commonsense but some on here just don't understand probability theory.

I was going to say the same thing, most books I have read it states it doesnt matter if you have 9 losers for every 1 winner as long as your winner compensates for your losers and provides you with a positive return after that.

Ideally you would prefer less than one loser per winner or perhaps 1 or 2 losers per winner but at the end of the year if you have made money overall it doesnt really matter.

Obviously dealing at the lower end of the market is higher risk otherwise the returns would not be there.

I think the other important thing to come from BBI/BEPPA is timing and a persons willingness to make quick decisions. Both times BBI/BEPPA spiked it dropped back fairly quick and you had to be on the ball to exit at prices near the top.

 

[nomore4s]

I always thought it would be good if a site existed where a small group of individuals (maybe 20) could contribute indepth discussion/research on particular stocks, with the site providing the avenue to share the research.

Um isn't that what this site is?

This thread never ceases to amaze me but there always seems to be at least one thread like this on the go at anyone time.

Some holders still seem in love with BBI and somewhat blinded by the "potential" for untold wealth. A number of posters were warning of the high possibility of failure with this stock but were pretty much run out of this thread. Meanwhile there were alot of unrealistic hypotheticals being thrown around which were never going to happen.

 

[nomore4s]

Obviously dealing at the lower end of the market is higher risk otherwise the returns would not be there.

lol, in a period were good solid companies with low debt & solid earnings were oversold there was very good rewards on offer with very little risk compared to this company.

I remember posting in this thread months ago there were better opportunities around but was told that nothing offered the same potential rewards as this company. Well since then this company has done nothing in terms of the sp while the general market has provided one of the most profitable rallies of all time.

The opportunity cost of this stock has been huge, especially since alot of the posters were pumping any spare money they had into this stock.

I think the other important thing to come from BBI/BEPPA is timing and a persons willingness to make quick decisions. Both times BBI/BEPPA spiked it dropped back fairly quick and you had to be on the ball to exit at prices near the top.

Most posters in here were too blinded by greed and far to attached to BBI to exit for good profit when given the chance.

 

[banska bystrica]

I posted in Nov 2008 that I bought 800,000 at 2.5c. I subsequently sold them all (and more) at average 16c in April after the bad news on PD Ports was announced.
(540% profit..... beats most of the top stocks by a country mile).

I successfully traded BEPPA and eventually sold all my significant BEPPA holding at average 15.8c after being free carried for the last 3 million.

This has been a fantastic investment over the last 10 months.
When fundamentals change, I react accordingly. Never fall in love with any stock.

 

[investorpaul]

Um isn't that what this site is?

The only reason I bought it up was that BB once mentioned something about having a small site of his own detailing some of his research, whether or not he has done it i dont know.

This thread never ceases to amaze me but there always seems to be at least one thread like this on the go at anyone time.

Some holders still seem in love with BBI and somewhat blinded by the "potential" for untold wealth. A number of posters were warning of the high possibility of failure with this stock but were pretty much run out of this thread. Meanwhile there were alot of unrealistic hypotheticals being thrown around which were never going to happen.

No sure if thats directed at me or others???

but I agree with you that there are always posts claiming a stock will go to x or make you x and if posters follow this hype without their own research it is dangerous. What people reading the forum and interested in the stock have to do is remove those subjective comments and focus on the facts provided and then do their own research. I do believe it is good to discuss what could/could not happen as it allows one to identify the likely exit scenarios. With this though I agree that the scenarios posted need to be realistic and achievable.

Furthermore with hindsight it is easier to see what went wrong in a strategy but a number of months ago BEPPA had a face value of $1, asset sales would have saved the company and there was a potential to realise some of that $1 face value. If some posters cannot see that fundamentals and company direction can change with short notice (and thus remove the potential for a large upside) then they only have themselves to blame.

Those who went into BBI/BEPPA having done their own research would have been the first to see that the reward part of the risk:reward equation had changed dramatically and would have sold out in many instances for a decent profit. Those who were late to the party and/or did no research would have purchased at higher prices, failed to understand the key requirements needed to unlock value and are in many instances still holding in the hope that the CSI is going to do them a favour and provide a huge upside potential.

 

[Largesse]

i think its clear that..............................................................................





reading forums = research

 

[investorpaul]

i think its clear that..............................................................................





reading forums = research

Anyone who relies on forums as a source of their research is an idiot. Forums are used for discussing opinions and ideas.

Investigating Company reports, fundamentals, economic data and future outlook amongst other things is research. And researching a company is not a 30 minute exercise, it takes time to do it properly.

(although I do admit that there probably are people out there who read forums and go that sounds good, i'll buy that. But no one can take responsibility for others if thats what they do)

 

[nomore4s]

I posted in Nov 2008 that I bought 800,000 at 2.5c. I subsequently sold them all (and more) at average 16c in April after the bad news on PD Ports was announced.
(540% profit..... beats most of the top stocks by a country mile).

Stocks like this if traded correctly do provide opportunity but how many here did that?

No sure if thats directed at me or others???

Just to clarify, my posts aren't directed at anyone, they are a general observation and can apply to different stocks and threads at different times. BMN a few years back is one that comes to mind.

Anyone who relies on forums as a source of their research is an idiot. Forums are used for discussing opinions and ideas.

While that is correct there are people around who do get sucked into the discussions on forums like this one, if you look through this thread you will find examples of it, greed is a powerful thing. This is why we have such a strict policy on ramping.

 

[banska bystrica]

I do not advocate following a stock on what is posted on a forum. However, if someone followed exactly what I was doing and when I was doing it (and I always post what I am doing straight away unlike others who claim to have done this and that in hindsight), then those people would have made a motza.

Assets sales above book would have seen greater prices for both BBI/BEPPA but the game changed when Corus pulled out of Teesport (impairing PD Ports) and then the game changed dramatically when the company announced DBCT sale was not proceeding due to low ball bids. If anyone is still holding in hope, they only have themselves to blame.

There is very little upside now and a real risk of 100% downside.

 

[banska bystrica]

Most posters in here were too blinded by greed and far to attached to BBI to exit for good profit when given the chance.

Investors who need their hand held shouldn't be in the market. I have no sympathy for them. They should get off their backsides and do the hundreds of hours research that is required. If not, go and put the money in a managed fund.

 

[awg]

Anyone who relies on forums as a source of their research is an idiot. Forums are used for discussing opinions and ideas.

Investigating Company reports, fundamentals, economic data and future outlook amongst other things is research. And researching a company is not a 30 minute exercise, it takes time to do it properly.

(although I do admit that there probably are people out there who read forums and go that sounds good, i'll buy that. But no one can take responsibility for others if thats what they do)

Forums are a place that a stocks may be bought to your attention.

There are not enough hours in the day to research everything

In depth research as posted by BB is useful, to assist in considering matters that those less experienced in interpreting balance sheets, would not otherwise have access to, unless they pay for professional analysts reports.

whether people consider that BB ramped or generated liquidity, the fact that he posted his research, which was far more in depth than almost any other poster, is surely the essence of what a stock forum is all about.

BB made mistakes, and owned up to some of them, some he probably kept to himself..who hasnt done that

If persons bought or sold based on posts alone from BB, they have got no one to blame but themselves if they lost money.

I hope he keeps up the posts on whatever he is doing, as the quality of his posts kicks ar$e on most.

disclaimer..i bought and sold, and BBI/BEPPA was one of my lowest performers over the period

my

 

[Julia]

lol, in a period were good solid companies with low debt & solid earnings were oversold there was very good rewards on offer with very little risk compared to this company.

I remember posting in this thread months ago there were better opportunities around but was told that nothing offered the same potential rewards as this company.

I can recall doing likewise and receiving a similar response.

People thinking for themselves is usually better than playing follow the leader.

 

[nunthewiser]

This thread never ceases to amaze me but there always seems to be at least one thread like this on the go at anyone time.

.

LOL what ever happened to the FMG thread was mighty active from 13 bucks down .....so many "bottoms " to choose from

 

[YELNATS]

Despite the spate of recent negative commentary, noticed that BEPPA is up about around 22% this morning and have used this as the opportunity to exit the last of my holdings, at a reasonable profit.

Thanks to all contributors for sharing their thoughts and analyses on BBI and BEPPA over the last 12 months or so.

 

[drsmith]

Followers know I sold all my BBI in April. I subsequently sold BEPPA later at a very healthy profit circa 16c after being free carried. A wonderful result.
You must be "select"s brother? Pick out little snippets of posts and try and create a drama.

You might be nimble enough to trade this for a profit but what about the fools who have followed your own fantasy posts and are left holding the baby ?

Tough luck for them I suppose.

 

[alphaman]

Well, looks like the inefficient market priced in BBI's difficulties as early as last year, hence the apparent discrepancy with the useless "NTA".

This thread shows that despite all the "due diligence" and "research", it is actually very difficult to add value fundamentally.

 

[banska bystrica]

You might be nimble enough to trade this for a profit but what about the fools who have followed your own fantasy posts and are left holding the baby ?

Tough luck for them I suppose.

Yes, tough luck. "If" they followed me in then they should have followed me out. If they choose to be run over by a dilution train, then that's their choice.
I explained very, very clearly what I was doing at the time I was doing it.

 

[AlexKidd]

Anyone have any thoughts (good or bad) as to why Beppa is now trading at around the .13c mark? BBI is not moving at all.

 

[Jez]

Anyone have any thoughts (good or bad) as to why Beppa is now trading at around the .13c mark? BBI is not moving at all.

Have you heard the saying "No news is good news"?

I'm out on deciding, as I have sold all at a loss. Usually when I sell at loss, the price eventually sky rockets! If you are still holding BBI, I hope my selling helps you.

 

[Gunlom]

maybe allota people swapping from BBI to BEPPA, to hopefully get a return.

BEPPA in the case of the company surviving is worth more than BBI

just a guess though