BAS - Bass Oil

[BESBS Player]

Just updating on BAS:

We should see some action at Windermere in H1 next year. From such an historically low SP, this would hopefully get some pre-spud action and lock in a nice profit. If you have held for 12 months, you also get the CGT 50% discount as a bonus. SP action might be a little way off but in such a market, I'm happy to park money here and wait.

The OBL report is upbeat. At one level, I can get excited about Richmond's chances at the 2011 premiership! Hmmm... (I've been waiting over 30 years!) Nevertheless, it is in the self-interest of OBL to try and push a Gippsland JV agreement. Once MOG finish with Artemis, I'm sure that Albers will also be pushing even harder to get BAS moving as well. Nothing like self-interest to encourage people!

Oil prices remain sound so this can provide a strong economic incentive. Who knows? There are a few mid-sized companies that might be tempted to take a stake in a Gippsland prospect as a chance to replenish deminishing reserves - maybe a bigger fish will hook in??? Companies such as BPT seem inteerested in LKO's onshore interests. Maybe BAS's Otway site might interest BPT one day?

While the Bass and Gippsland Basin comments are simply thoughts, the Windermere prospect offers a likely insurance when taking a punt here.

The next 12 months should be very interesting for BAS. I remember the time when MOG languished around 2c before big news came out and we saw what happened to MOG since. At the current SP, and given the turbulence of the general market, I like the odds of some SP gains once Windermere arrives.

Happy to wait...

PS. Accumulating BAS at 2-3-2.5c

 

[BESBS Player]

Just read the Annual report.

Doesn't look like much change from above comments.
Windermere looks the most likely to move the SP. Drilling won't be until 2010 (probably mid at best) so a good long term hold but nothing in the short term to excite.

Happy to hold at present.

 

[BESBS Player]

Wondering when we will see the Windermere report estimates? Given this is the only SP trigger I can see in the short-term, a nice report would be good.

I've lightened up on BAS but kept a smaller parcel for upcoming results.

 

[BESBS Player]

Announcement out.

Drilling at Windermere in Q2 (probably late) 2011.

Given BAS links to Gippsland tenements, I suspect that this will slowly become a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) play but with plenty of time to enter.


Still holding some BAS now at 2.7c ave.

 

[King EU]

Only held a small amount of these and sold yesterday cos I thought the spike would only be temporary. Now I kinda wish I hadn't as it looks like it could really rocket upwards on even a hint of positive news.

 

[BESBS Player]

Hi King.

I suspect that BAS might drift a little in the short term but as we approach drilling at Windermere- now that management have annouced that something will actually happen - interest will gather in 2011. Gippsland and Bass Basins remain a wildcard.


Holding BAS at 2.7c

 

[BESBS Player]

Hi King.

I suspect that BAS might drift a little in the short term but as we approach drilling at Windermere- now that management have annouced that something will actually happen - interest will gather in 2011. Gippsland and Bass Basins remain a wildcard.


Holding BAS at 2.7c

Probably talking to myself but it looks like BAS are now starting to see the initial BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spudding) entry activity. Today's announcement on the ASX also confirmed an anticipated drilling in Q2.

While BAS will have to fund 50% of the cost (probably around $1.3m according to the annual report) and therefore see a capital raising before spud, I see this being a good BESBS play. I can't imagine BAS running a Share Purchase Plan at 3c, so my punt is that we will get significantly higher before any such action.

The news of Winderemere was no secret - see my post above - and this is where much of my SUR sale has been placed during the last week. Looks like I just beat the rush

Should be interesting to watch how it pans out.

Holding BAS @ 2.9c ave

 

[BESBS Player]

Drilling timeline confirmed in Dec. quarterly.

 

[BESBS Player]

I'm pleasantly surprised that BAS has held up well given Albers significant sales in recent times.

I am still holding and I guess I feel somewhat 'insured' given my entry price ave. is 2.9c Nevertheless, the main concern here is definitely the intentions of Geoffrey Albers.

We need an update on the resource estimate and then a more definite outline of drill times to keep the momentum going. Even then, the risk is that Albers might sell a huge amount of stock and stop the BESBS momentum. One can only hope that he is simply skimming some BAS off the top of his portfolio to buy elsewhere. I remember he did this at the peak of the Zane-Gray drilling many years ago. Add the almost inevitable capital raising and this play is a little less certain than usual.

At this stage, I'll hold and wait for the resource estimate upgrade.


Holding BAS @ 2.9c ave.

 

[BESBS Player]

Market liked the resource estimate update for Windermere. SP hit 4.5c today.

If Albers has been selling to make sure that his holdings were under 20% of the company before the action started (by my calculations, he had crept close to 21% but should be under 20% now given recent sales), then he might not be selling further.
Interesting times ahead.

Holding BAS at 2.9c ave. :

 

[BESBS Player]

If Albers has been selling to make sure that his holdings were under 20% of the company before the action started (by my calculations, he had crept close to 21% but should be under 20% now given recent sales), then he might not be selling further.
Interesting times ahead.

Holding BAS at 2.9c ave. :

Looks like the SP has settled a little after the EOG conference and questions over sales by Geoffrey Albers.
The SP seems to be settling in the low-mid 4c range without huge sales. Given we are only in March, this seems fair enough. Once we have a confirmed drilling date, then we should see a decent leg-up in the SP.

Holding BAS @ 2.9c ave

 

[Miner]

BSEBs

Are you the only player winning in this field as a part of walkover by others

Jokes apart good analysis I was reading from you

 

[BESBS Player]

G'day Miner.

Nice to see BAS hit 5c today before resting back to close at 4.8c.
I feel confident my thoughts on Alber's sales was accurate. I doubt we will see him sell more until neat the peak of the pre-spud run.
I also suspect, given the SP, that management will try and resist a Capital Raising until after Windermere (given it is an appraisal rather than wildcat well). They should have just enough cash to drill, given ITR's contributions...

Cheers,
BESBS

Holding BAS @ 2.9c ave

 

[BESBS Player]

Interesting to see an equities firm in Adelaide becoming a substantial holder in BAS.
Given their recent purchases, I would think it unlikely that they will dump stock in the next little while, given Windermere is approaching. By spud, it will be interesting to see how they operate.



Holding BAS at 2.9c ave

 

[BESBS Player]

Interesting to see that Windermere is now delayed until Q4. From my reading of the reason (ie. weather), it is a load of rubbish given the area in question.

My suspicion is that we now know part of the reason for the recent termination of Adams' employment - did anyone bother to book a rig???

I have sold 50% of my holding in the mid 3c range (ave) during the last 2 weeks (made 15% profit) and put the money into BKP for a final run into spud news. The other 50% of BAS I'll carry until spud as they are in front at present.

Until Q4...

 

[anthracite]

glad adams has gone , looks goods on the horizon , a new appointment not far from drilling now this are looking good. i hope study agreement turns into joint venture

 

[BESBS Player]

Decided to move some of my BKP profits into BAS at this time for the following reasons:

1. Windermere -1 is now looking likely for a Q4 (or at worst early 2012) drill. It is a small target (not a positive) but being a former oil discovery, it takes on more of an appraisal feel, so this helps to compensateas the chances of a successful drill are heightened.
2. Capital Raising has been done. As ASX did not drop more than 10% during the CR, the shaortfall should be filled by the underwriters. Cash should be okay.
3. The SP is within 10% or so of annual low, and it is supported by the recent CR at
2.5cents.
4. In the main, BAS have managed to gather some day-trader support for drillings (although we are currently operating in a difficult market which adds to the risk of limited profits)
5. The Chinese are looking at BAS's other permits (see earlier ASX announcement). It is a wildcard but if they did become interested in Bass or Gippsland Basins, BAS would lift quickly. Remember what happened to MOG when Petrobas suddenly entered into WA 360? The SP went from the low 3c range and headed toward 20c over a few weeks.

So, based on these reasons, and given the low SP entry point, I'll see what happens.


Holding BAS at 2.6c ave.

 

[BESBS Player]

Decided to move some of my BKP profits into BAS at this time for the following reasons:


2. Capital Raising has been done. As ASX did not drop more than 10% during the CR, the shaortfall should be filled by the underwriters. Cash should be okay.

ASX announcement out today confirming that shortfall has been placed.

 

[BESBS Player]

Quick update on BAS: I see current 3c as a rough price (now CR is done) and moving to 3.5c as we approach mid/end-November. BAS will need to then confirm the drill to get momentum going beyond 4c. If drill is delayed, then 3c will be it for a while. Up 15% since post 2 weeks ago.

Holding BAS at 2.6c ave.

 

[BESBS Player]

Among the gloom of the global economy that has dampened sentiment in the past few weeks (we can't even get some ridiculous shirts to liven things up at APEC these days!), BAS have announced that Windermere is underway.

Key points today included:

* drilling pad being constructed
* drill should spud around early December
* 2 weeks to drill from spud
* Daily reports to the market upon spudding

From a trader perspective, BAS has some appeal:

1. Windermere -1 is actually happening. No delays...it is on!
2. It is a small target (not a positive) but being a former oil discovery, it takes on more of an appraisal feel, so this helps to compensate as the chances of a successful drill are heightened (although, as always, never certain).
3. Capital Raising covered costs.
3. The SP is within 10% or so of annual low, and it is supported by the recent CR at 2.5cents. Despite the general market, this is a relatively stable SP platform to enter for a punt.
4. In the main, BAS have managed to gather some day-trader support for drillings in the past.
5. Daily Reports are helpful to traders. This allows one to follow closely the progress of the drill rather than wait on weekly or even more random reports.

If the Italians can finalise a change of leadership, the Greeks can stay afloat, the French can offer a tight budget to keep their AAA rating and we get some better news from the US shortly (and these are sizeable 'ifs' to be fair)- especially as we head into the festive season - then BAS might yet bring some pre-spud activity.

Holding BAS at 2.6c ave and watching.