AX1 - Accent Group

[Skate]

AX1 gained 3.45% (to $1.20) yesterday to finish the year at 301 on the ASX ranking. This is what I'm watching - to see what happens when it breaks 300 and how much effect VAS buying it up will have on its price. Thoughts anyone?

Darc Knight if I may, I wish to make a comment

AX1 was a successful trade back in May 2018. I took the trade between the yellow ribbon. (at the beach you swim between the flags, whereas I trade between the (ROC) ribbon)

Explanation
The yellow ribbon at the bottom of the chart is a Rate of Change (ROC) indicator, I have used the amber colour to indicate 'caution' as its not a good idea for me to take a position if the (ROC) indicator is below 0%

Buy between the Gaps
I snuck in between the gaps of the amber (yellow) ribbon to grab a few dollars. Eventually the (ROC) indicator kicked me out of the trade (highlighted by the 'searchlight') while the "trailing stop" wanted me to stay.

I'm a wimp
I'm a wimpy trader, at first sign of danger I'm out of the trade.

The weekly chart of (AX1) displays its fair share of a yellow ribbon - if a stock displays a lot of yellow it indicates a lack of interest.

Like they say a picture paints a thousand words & the chart should be easy to read.

No one knows if a price is high or low
With trading no one knows if a price is high or low, picking the top or the bottom even eludes the professional so we have no chance picking the top or the bottom of any market.

Smart Investors
The smart Investors want to buy at the very lowest price and sell at a much higher price to make money and if they have to screw the little guy along the way, well so be it.

Skate.

 

[Darc Knight]

OK, I'll still be watching the effect of VAS upon its share price. Something caused it to surge 3% Friday.
I'm gunna watch others lurking just outside ASX 200 or 300. VAS has 3 bil, STW and Blackrock well over 3 bil.

 

[galumay]

....just a wee little wiggly line showing what the daily price close looks like and which overall direction it is headed.

Thanks for taking my comment in good humour! I would tease a little more by pointing out the wriggly line actually shows where it has been, it gives no indication of where it's headed, that would be logically impossible! I better stop now though, otherwise I will attract others with less sense of humour and we will end up in a religious debate!

I suspect neither of us are buying AX1 anyway.

 

[Ann]

Thanks for taking my comment in good humour! I would tease a little more by pointing out the wriggly line actually shows where it has been, it gives no indication of where it's headed, that would be logically impossible! I better stop now though, otherwise I will attract others with less sense of humour and we will end up in a religious debate!

I suspect neither of us are buying AX1 anyway.

Feel free to worship any deity who spins your wheels galumay! No debate from me
Actually the wiggly line does rather tell me where it is going because I have seen where it has been. I doubt very much if I was going to buy it, (which I am not) I would get in before 90c proved its strength again. I can see its history and where there has been a shakeout of holders. That is what TA can offer, visible history. Nothing magic or predictive as such, that is why I never, ever draw an arrow in any given direction on any of my charts to indicate the future direction. The only exception is when I draw a swing trade calculation and that can be amazingly correct sometimes. Other times when I don't do it properly it is a big fail! So still not predictive 'cos many times I stuff the calculation.

 

[$20shoes]

Been keeping an eye on this one. There's a certain bullishness about the corrective test of the high volume are on the 8th -12th March. There may be volume moving in in anticipation of a rise. Indeed Money Flow indicators are very positive. The retracement itself is shallow and appears to be a minor move in a broader trend.

Just in case people think this is a no - brainer, you can also spot some negative divergence in a few indicators as it approaches its early March highs, so pays to be on our toes here.

A long position above the recent highs might present a good r/r though?

 

[tinhat]

Been keeping an eye on this one. There's a certain bullishness about the corrective test of the high volume are on the 8th -12th March. There may be volume moving in in anticipation of a rise. Indeed Money Flow indicators are very positive. The retracement itself is shallow and appears to be a minor move in a broader trend.

Just in case people think this is a no - brainer, you can also spot some negative divergence in a few indicators as it approaches its early March highs, so pays to be on our toes here.

A long position above the recent highs might present a good r/r though?

View attachment 93078

That is the least bullish chart I have cast my eyeballs over for some time.

 

[$20shoes]

That is the least bullish chart I have cast my eyeballs over for some time.

Oh interested in what you don't like about it tinhat? You wouldn't go long above a break of recent highs?

 

[$20shoes]

A little more on what i do and dont like about Ax1.

A large volume bar on 22/10/18 set up a supply/resistance zone. After another failed test to overcome it on 14 Feb this year, there was concerted push to overcome this area that produced a gap up on 21st March.

The correction since then hasn't really seen enough supply to move prices down to 1.40, so my supposition is that prices will move up to elicit supply trapped between $1.60 and $1.70. Admittedly its heavy supply here, which I don't like. But I think an attempt will at least be made on these levels.

 

[$20shoes]

In today on the minor breakout within a larger range-bound action. I took a punt on a better R/R with this setup with an increased risk that I'll be caught in some churn. But today's bar sets the scene for an imminent break to the upside. Happy with today's clean action.

 

[explod]

Thought it was time to start a thread.

RCG is an Investment Holding company which owns the Athlete's Foot in Australia and New Zealand.

They have achieved like-for-like sales growth of 10% for the 4 months to October 09 compared to 08.

They also recently announced sales growth of 30% in their new re-furbished large format stores which they are progressively rolling out into 2010.

Even though most stores are mall based, they recently acquired the 3 North Sydney based Shoe superstore.

They also recently bought out the licence/royalty rights of the US parent for the next 249 years, which they claim will be appreciative to earnings to the tune of $1.2M a year and also enable them to increase floor product by roughly 150 new lines (that's a guestimate ). And also have made an agreement as the Sole distributor of Merrill footwear throughout Australia. Looks like they are expanding to wholesale to compliment their retail spread.

They have over $20M cash, no debt and what looks like good sales growth.
Tariffs on footwear have also been lowered to 5% which should also add to earnings into 2010 and beyond.

Currently sitting on 57cents a share. Management also claim that 70% of profits will be passed onto shareholders in the form of dividends.

Any thoughts?

DYOR

Gumby, one of the smartest persons I have ever known was kicked off of AFf a few years back and when I see his threads still arising it does get to me.

 

[tinhat]

Oh interested in what you don't like about it tinhat? You wouldn't go long above a break of recent highs?

A little more on what i do and dont like about Ax1.

A large volume bar on 22/10/18 set up a supply/resistance zone. After another failed test to overcome it on 14 Feb this year, there was concerted push to overcome this area that produced a gap up on 21st March.

The correction since then hasn't really seen enough supply to move prices down to 1.40, so my supposition is that prices will move up to elicit supply trapped between $1.60 and $1.70. Admittedly its heavy supply here, which I don't like. But I think an attempt will at least be made on these levels.

View attachment 93079

In today on the minor breakout within a larger range-bound action. I took a punt on a better R/R with this setup with an increased risk that I'll be caught in some churn. But today's bar sets the scene for an imminent break to the upside. Happy with today's clean action.
View attachment 93855

Hi shoes

I haven't kept my eye on this thread. I'm not a chartist, but I am trying to learn, but it is hard when you brain starts to calcify, which my consumption of red wine does not assist with. My simple observation of the chart you posted on 19 March is that no higher-high had been posted and that there was no interesting change in volume in what turned out to be a double-top.

Looking at your post of today however, that is an interesting chart.

I like AX1 because it is a financially sound business. I've successfully traded in and out of it over a few years. As a small bit investor I try and look to diversify into different sectors as much as I can but I don't think I own a retailer at the moment and haven't for a while now.

I hope it breaks up from here but there is a lot of overhead resistance above.

 

[peter2]

The price of AX1 is back at the long resistance level again (1.70). There's a sequence of higher lows leading up to now. This chart looks quite bullish, but price is still below all time highs (~1.90) of three years ago. Like others before me this is not a stock I'm comfortable trading (retail).

 

[tinhat]

AX1 (Accent Group) has gone on a gallop recently. We've seen a ascending wedge forming on the weekly with the stock consistently putting in lower lows over the past twelve or so months.

A nice cusping formation started developing on the daily in later in the year. This week it looked like the spring might be loading up (potential cup and handle?) and BOOM!

Zooming out to the monthly, this week's break-out looks set to test the all time high of 2016:

Which would be an all time high for AX1 in its current form of Accent Group (post the merger of RCG Corp with the NZ Accent business).

We might be in for a period of AX1 testing resistance at 1.935. Being a shoe retailer the timing of this break-out certainly is interesting given that we should get data on sales over Christmas early next year. I hold.

 

[mullokintyre]

Not a lot of chatter on Ax1 over past two years.
Come off its most recent highs.
Annual report due to be released on 20/08.
Down 7% today which suggests that some people in the know think it may not be as good as once expected.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

i expect they ( the punters ) are thinking smaller bricks'n'mortar are in serious trouble ( and generally they would be correct )

is AX1 different ( this time )

i don't know , allegedly the new team ( i bought in when they were RCG ) are pretty sharp operators

now PERSONALLY i would NEVER buy shoes without trying them on first , but it seems plenty of others are fine buying without trying ( them on )

i hold these at no cash risk ( recovered the investment cash when they were still RCG ) ..

DYOR

just a nice div. payer in the bottom drawer for me ( unless something spectacular happens )

 

[divs4ever]

PS i bought in @ 66c in June 2014

and stocks like this is why i like small caps ( plenty of room to grow )

DIVIDEND TYPE	DIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)	FRANKED	EX-DIV DATE	PAY DATE
Interim	0.080	100.00%	10/03/2021	18/03/2021
Final	0.040	100.00%	09/09/2020	24/09/2020
Interim	0.053	100.00%	04/03/2020	19/03/2020
Final	0.038	100.00%	11/09/2019	26/09/2019
Interim	0.045	100.00%	06/03/2019	21/03/2019
Final	0.038	100.00%	12/09/2018	27/09/2018
Interim	0.030	100.00%	01/03/2018	22/03/2018
Final	0.030	100.00%	08/09/2017	25/09/2017
Interim	0.030	100.00%	02/03/2017	23/03/2017
Final	0.030	100.00%	08/09/2016	23/09/2016
Interim	0.025	100.00%	29/02/2016	24/03/2016

 

[galumay]

i hold these at no cash risk ( recovered the investment cash when they were still RCG ) ..

One I wish I hadn't sold, like you I owned from the RCG days, I sold at about $1.26 for a CAGR of 35% and an overall return of 125% over the 3 years I held. They have doubled again since then as well as the divvy stream so probably x3. Interesting reading what I wrote at the time of selling in my journal, i was worried about how far ahead of my range of IV they had run, they had also recovered from a big dipin 2017 when they plunged back down to 70c so I was a little nervous about the potential for another drawdown like that.

What really irks me is where I redeployed that capital. It was a bad decision!!

 

[divs4ever]

don't worry i have made blunders elsewhere

but when i started out investing

one of my 'hurdles' was do i want to hold that share forever ( realizes take-overs and bankruptcies happen , so some will always cease to exist )

HOWEVER after a few big risers , i saw the wisdom of rescuing the cash invested ( to reinvest elsewhere ) when it was sensible

some like say GRR i have resisted recovering that cash , time will tell if that was a correct choice or not

i DO exit shares completely but that is usually because the company makes a decision i don't like ( or a string of them like ORG and ANZ ) not related to the share price

 

[galumay]

I think like most things in investing, there are no hard and fast rules you can apply, the 'science' is being able to understand the financials and business accounting, an understanding of how businesses work and having a process to consider valuation. The 'art' lies in being able to apply that science in varying contexts and situations!

Also the feedback loop is very long, when I sold AX1 it certainly looked a good decision, and initially the decision to reinvest the capital where I did looked like a good decision, now 3 years later both look like poor decisions!! Thing is that capital has now been redeployed elsewhere and may prove to be either the best or worst (or somewhere inbetween) decision of them all! We dont really know until we stop investing, convert all investments to cash and then assess the overall, absolute performance of the investment portfolio or its entire life. Until then any assessment of performance is purely theoretical.

 

[divs4ever]

was more aiming for a lifelong income stream , to supplement the pension when i started planning

so many of the multi-baggers were quite unpredicted

i was just happy for a 6% to 8% return per year , and hoping inflation didn't make those divs worthless ( if say 10% inflation )


cash mightn't be worth much in 5 years time

as a tax-paying worker , my first take home pay was $25 a WEEK ( back in 1972 ) now days it is hard to get a decent worker for $25 an hour ( unless you are running a sweatshop or mega-corp franchise )

so don't sweat the cash too much ... they are just typing it on a computer now , they don't even cut down a tree to print on it