AX1 - Accent Group

[galumay]

Regardless, as I say, its really very hard to know if what you do is working, thats the long time feedback loop.

There are lots of hazards, resulting and path dependency are but two of them. I think the written decision journal helps, at least with the self delusion!

The only final measure is cash, you can have a share paying 10% dividend, up 1000% over the years you have held it, tomorrow it can go to 0. That CAGR & 1000% theoretical return worth not a single cent. Plenty of bankrupt investors who had outstanding 'returns' for years - right up until they didn't!

Hubris & humility are two of the most useful mental tools of the investor!

Anyway, lets go and find some more AX1's!

 

[systematic]

Not a lot of chatter on Ax1 over past two years.
Come off its most recent highs.
Annual report due to be released on 20/08.
Down 7% today which suggests that some people in the know think it may not be as good as once expected.
Mick

Almost a one year hold for me so I’ll hand around and hope for not too much of a drop

 

[divs4ever]

well for the ADVENTEROUS , there is ART , i was in at the start of trading ( 1st day of listing ) @ $1.01 but out again @ $1.25 , the day they announced the US acquisition

it looked like a cheeky gamble in a virus racked economy , but then the acquisition gave me flash-backs to SGH so ran for the parachute

BUT is now back under $1 .. those young(er ) and brave(r) than me ,might find a midterm hold at least until this lock-down madness settles down

until we see at least two sets of results after the float , (imo ) it must remain a speculative share

DYOR

i will WATCH ART but am unlikely to buy back in unless there is mind-changing news

 

[galumay]

I shall have a look, although as someone who burnt a huge amount of capital in SGH your comments gave me palpitations.

 

[divs4ever]

well the SGH affair certainly helped me become more cautious , ESPECIALLY now lock-downs are degrading the audit and due diligence processes

now my loses in SGH weren't huge i grabbed for a falling knife and caught it in the foot ( unfortunately NOT with my toes )

good luck

Australia lowers bar on public companies' disclosures, extends virtual AGMs​

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australia-lowers-bar-public-companies-091530343.html

only a couple of years after the Hayne Royal Commission highlighted various regulator lapses as well

 

[mullokintyre]

AX1 result sorta good and sorta bad.
perhaps those people in the know were right.
All the good bits, total sales up by 20% and NPAt up 39%.
divvy of 3.25 takes the full year grossed up divvy to around 7%.
The bad bit is that sales for the first part of this fin year are well down, probably not helped by all the lockdowns throughout the country.
Not sure whether to stay in this one for the divvys, or to bail .
Decisions, decisions.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

i bought in @ 66c in 2014 when it was RCG



i will probably stay ( so far )

but while there is currently so much uncertainty , i can see you quandary

i still can't believe so many will buy shoes on line , socks , laces ,inner soles etc. sure but SHOES ??

good luck

 

[mullokintyre]

I could be persuaded that online buying will become the norm.
It would suit the wholesalers- no need for expensive shopfronts, keeping stock at so many stores, employing pretty vacuous things to try and pretend they are not bored shitless fluffing around the store..
if the public get used to the idea, thats the way it will go.
Have a look at what happened to bank branches all over the country.
In ten years time, nobody will even know how to write a cheque , much less actually do one.
It will be electronic banking or nothing.
Why not go for electronic retailing?
Either way, it will probably kill the middle man, unless you are amazon.
Why have a shoe shop with lots of different brands when you can just go to a wholesalers warehouse and pick them out online?
Things are changing, no doubt about that.
Mick

 

[galumay]

@divs4ever, I always thought that when I held, shoes are something people like to try on physically. Sure there will be some online sales but I dont think it threatens AX1's business model. Your point is something I think of not infrequently as a long term investor, the cost base ends up being so low relative to current price over time, that you are protected from just about anything bar the company going to 0. Makes it very easy to keep holding.

 

[mullokintyre]

Stayed in Ax1, mainly because I bought two new pairs of sketches online from them.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

I could be persuaded that online buying will become the norm.
It would suit the wholesalers- no need for expensive shopfronts, keeping stock at so many stores, employing pretty vacuous things to try and pretend they are not bored shitless fluffing around the store..
if the public get used to the idea, thats the way it will go.
Have a look at what happened to bank branches all over the country.
In ten years time, nobody will even know how to write a cheque , much less actually do one.
It will be electronic banking or nothing.
Why not go for electronic retailing?
Either way, it will probably kill the middle man, unless you are amazon.
Why have a shoe shop with lots of different brands when you can just go to a wholesalers warehouse and pick them out online?
Things are changing, no doubt about that.
Mick

obviously you have never been a sales-person ( although if you worked at Myers that wouldn't count either )

there is a whole hidden art in face-to-face sales , unless the websites resort to subliminal messaging ( allegedly illegal , but have seen no attempts to monitor it ) bricks'n'mortar has it's own aces , smells , noises , subtle personal interactions , and of course seeing what you are buying as close as you want to look .

almost the same as buying your new house on-line would you do it , i wouldn't

but of course i am part of the older generation and taught by several Great Depression associates over the years

looks all efficient and cost effective , but you reduce the chance of impulse sales

and REMEMBER all those jobs displaced were tax-payers , consumers and somebody's customers

Amazon and Co. look good now but an aging , shrinking , less affluent population is coming fast

have hardly ever used cheques , and the banks created their own doom , maybe my focus on the second tier banks was the right move despite being for different reasons

 

[Miner]

obviously you have never been a sales-person ( although if you worked at Myers that wouldn't count either )

there is a whole hidden art in face-to-face sales , unless the websites resort to subliminal messaging ( allegedly illegal , but have seen no attempts to monitor it ) bricks'n'mortar has it's own aces , smells , noises , subtle personal interactions , and of course seeing what you are buying as close as you want to look .

almost the same as buying your new house on-line would you do it , i wouldn't

but of course i am part of the older generation and taught by several Great Depression associates over the years

looks all efficient and cost effective , but you reduce the chance of impulse sales

and REMEMBER all those jobs displaced were tax-payers , consumers and somebody's customers

Amazon and Co. look good now but an aging , shrinking , less affluent population is coming fast

have hardly ever used cheques , and the banks created their own doom , maybe my focus on the second tier banks was the right move despite being for different reasons

I am digressing on face to face !
Bought my investment property in Brisbane and saw it after 3 years.
Held it for 9 years and during that time in total 3 weeks, it was not occupied.
Bought washing machine 3 months back using appliance on line. Super Happy.
Prior to Covid used to buy shirts and trousers from UK online. Never had to return

However on the context I would wear my shoes first before buy.
But AX 1 can not survive on shoes alone.

 

[mullokintyre]

obviously you have never been a sales-person ( although if you worked at Myers that wouldn't count either )

there is a whole hidden art in face-to-face sales , unless the websites resort to subliminal messaging ( allegedly illegal , but have seen no attempts to monitor it ) bricks'n'mortar has it's own aces , smells , noises , subtle personal interactions , and of course seeing what you are buying as close as you want to look .

almost the same as buying your new house on-line would you do it , i wouldn't

but of course i am part of the older generation and taught by several Great Depression associates over the years

looks all efficient and cost effective , but you reduce the chance of impulse sales

and REMEMBER all those jobs displaced were tax-payers , consumers and somebody's customers

Amazon and Co. look good now but an aging , shrinking , less affluent population is coming fast

have hardly ever used cheques , and the banks created their own doom , maybe my focus on the second tier banks was the right move despite being for different reasons

You are quite correct, i have never worked in retail sales, though for a very short time I was involved with selling software to unsuspecting businesses.
Problem was I could not look them in the eye and lie about how the software would solve all their problems.
Others were far better at it than me. I went back to trying to installing the software and trying to make it work like the salesmen promised.
Mick

 

[Miner]

You are quite correct, i have never worked in retail sales, though for a very short time I was involved with selling software to unsuspecting businesses.
Problem was I could not look them in the eye and lie about how the software would solve all their problems.
Others were far better at it than me. I went back to trying to installing the software and trying to make it work like the salesmen promised.
Mick

mate - if you are in Perth, I do desperately need services from a person like you. No joke. Telstra is horrible. Please PM

 

[divs4ever]

not ALL selling involves exaggerating the qualities of the product up for sale ( but sadly that is what management often expects you to do )

like one other member here i rose to local prominence by becoming the local paper boy for several years ( it wasn't my first source of income but it was the first my parents were aware of ) , straight service ( being there with the right product at an acceptable price ) has a lot going for it , and a quick smile and cheerful comment helps to inspire them to return

AX1 issues will include be fewer people doing recreational exercise during and AFTER the lock-downs , just fewer activities out of the residence ESPECIALLY if work from home stays as a permanent feature ( i walk around home barefoot so even sock usage has plummeted )

however AX1 has a management team with a solid reputation , maybe they can grow by absorbing the struggling rivals

but gee if only the funeral service providers would drop in price , they look set for a good run in the mid-term ( i hold PFP )

still with AX1 i have only the profit running ( i took the cash risk out when it was still RCG )

one risk is AX1 will rely on too many 'trendy brands ' and become the Myer of the footwear industry

cheers

 

[divs4ever]

mate - if you are in Perth, I do desperately need services from a person like you. No joke. Telstra is horrible. Please PM

here in QLD , Oplus/NBN is probably no better

i strongly suspect a lot of the problem is the NBN 'backbone ' of the system ( although the 4G network isn't without problems ) AND all the data discretely uploaded from various 'smart devices '

( you should see how many cookies and trackers i delete everyday DESPITE using ad-blockers )

however the upside is 'essential Government services ' keep crashing at peak times , and MIGHT embarrass them into mass resignations

 

[mullokintyre]

AX1 up 13% today on above average volume.
Its already ex div, so don't really know why the big jump today.
Will just have to wait and see what announcements were leaked out today,.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

SUL IS UP 3 percent today as well , i hold both

so maybe there is more hopium about on a 'normal ' Christmas and less lock-downs

but haven't seen anything to boost the share price except a Dow Jones report on a Morgan Stanley upgrade

*DJ Accent Upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley

*DJ Accent Price Target Raised 8.3% to A$2.60/Share by Morgan Stanley

 

[mullokintyre]

ax1 announced that they have become the exclusive OZ distributor for Reebok brands.
Did not know that Reebok still existed.
Thought they had been killed off by Nike, Adidas, and Puma.
There ya go.
Not sure if it will make a lot of difference to the share price though.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Annual out today.
AX1 have been hit big time by the COVID store closures/lockdowns in Vic and NSW over last quarter.
They reckon it cost them 40mill down on expected sales.
On the plus side yhey have seen strong store front recovery since the lockdowns ended,
I will bail today.
The experience overseas shows that there will be further lockdowns next autumn/winter, so it will be hit again.
Mick