This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

AWC - Alumina Limited

Jump to new
sptrawler said:
Well Boggo, I think everyone got ahead of themselves, and sold out of S32 at $3.20.
Hope I haven't shot my feet off.lol
Looking for a retraction on AWC, at the moment.
Click to expand...

I am still holding AWC, weekly stop is now up to 1.87.

I went long on S32 on the open last Monday in two accounts, one is short term trade account that capitalises on divvy runups etc and I sold those two days later.
The other is a weekly longer term account.

It did trigger my weekly scan but even though that may have been dividend inspired I still think there is upside and with the entry and the divvy I have a bit of wiggle room. Initial stop is at 2.81 on the weekly account until the ATR stop catches up (if it runs up).

 
Boggo said:
Initial stop is at 2.81 on the weekly account until the ATR stop catches up (if it runs up).
Click to expand...

No need to disclose the full code Boggo, but curious if your initial stop is based on a 3-Bar countback line (ala Daryl Guppy) or using a Lowest low in "x" bars?

I use a type of countback line as an initial stop with a few of my futures setups so always interested when I spot someone else using something similar.
 

No problem with the basic code, basic low of the last three bars. I haven't programmed it into any backtesting etc, it's more of a point of interest and more often than not as is the case with the chart of S32 above a definite point of interest.

In particular it is handy in my scan as the results table using that as an initial stop "guide" gives a buy quantity and dollar value based on a maximum of $2000.00 at risk on any one trade.

Excuse the poor coding in the two extracts below, I know what I want but I am fairly agricultural in how I get there via programming.
The code should explain the the entry slippage assumption of an entry 5% above the close price and the exit 1 cent below that initial stop.

These two elements are not in my base formula and back tests, they are just additions that appear in the scan results (below) and on the chart but are definite items of consideration in the eyeball process of analysing the scan results as are all the colored areas in the output below.
(hope all that makes sense after a steak, a beer and two reds )

Back to AWC on this thread after this me thinks.

 
Well Boggo, I certainly missed the top, but am ever hopeful of a re entry point soon.
Aluminium is still become a scarce commodity, the LME reserves aren't looking any better.
The next month or two should see some slide, due to lack of volume. IMO
 
I'm still in there in my SMSF based on the weekly.
It did cross the stop last week but it closed back above it so I didn't sell on Friday evening or Monday morning.
Looking at it from an EW perspective I have a target of around 2.70 with a minimum expectation of around 2.55.
I am in a position where I can give it room to move around but another approach to the stop line might be time to bail out for now.

Couple of charts, both weekly with one being a VSA approach that I am trying to get my head around.

 
I think you are on the money, but I do think there is a lot of market sentiment, looking for a correction.
Sometimes it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.
I'm thinking a double with S32, both have a lot of upside space. IMO
 
A very good half year result today reaching a 10 year high, next price target is $4.00 all blue skies from here.

This has been another outstanding result for the Company, with AWAC’s alumina margins reaching levels not seen since before the GFC with the average realised alumina price up 35% on the previous corresponding period. AWAC contained production cost increases to 11% over the same period despite higher raw material costs.

“Current market conditions are broadly expected to continue into the second half with the 6.3 mtpy.
The alumina price has averaged US$504 per tonne since 1 July 2018 which provides a strong base for AWAC’s second half result.”

Highlights below:


 
I'm still hoping for a further retraction, would like an entry point nearer $2, preferably below.
Aluminium is going to become a valuable commodity, as EV's become more prolific. IMO
 
sptrawler said:
I'm still hoping for a further retraction, would like an entry point nearer $2, preferably below.
Aluminium is going to become a valuable commodity, as EV's become more prolific. IMO
Click to expand...
Good morning all
For the hopeful to enter into AWC possibly haa been given through today's quarterly report.
Great outcome with $2 reduction on cash cost, almost half the revenue compared with previous quarter, significantly low margin on alumina price and high capex. The CEO needs his bonus so he is beating own drum blaming the significant low market price for the fall out. Interesting. Not sure if I or any one read a forewarning on the likelyhood revenue due to market.
On a side note enjoy Easter Break, watch double demerit, eat Easter bun and stay safe.
 
sptrawler said:
I'm still hoping for a further retraction, would like an entry point nearer $2, preferably below.
Aluminium is going to become a valuable commodity, as EV's become more prolific. IMO
Click to expand...
Well I can't wait forever, in at $2.28 dividend due to be announced soon, hopefully a good result.
 
@sptrawler I thought that I would throw up a daily chart here.

Counter trend signal shown on the 19/5 so hopefully it can hold a break of the $1.60 then start it's recovery.

Good Luck mate !

 
It's starting to look interesting with swelling of volume (not shown on your chart, Trav) on the right edge and higher lows inside the trading range.
 
Trav. said:
@hja yes the OBV is starting to turn

View attachment 103900
Click to expand...
Not to sure what to make today of the huge volume bar. Something is up because big player/s getting out? --after hours trading

Yesterday's upthrust-like bar looked a little ugly but nothing serious in the big scheme of things. But combining both today's and yesterday's price bars producing long up tail, price pushed 85% down into the previous leg of candles.
 
@hja yes that was huge volume yesterday, by the looks of it the biggest in AWC's history.

Ugly day for it and S32 didn't do much better so put it down to being a Friday and people exiting positions, as I can't see any other driver for it.
 
AWC has about an additional 130 million to spend on capex vs last year and they also had a -170 million cash flow last year (Fair enough as it was their cash hoard going to dividends). That cash hoard is now gone and they are 'back to normal' cash balances. (I'm working in USD)

However you slice it that is a $300 million dollar swing in cash flow that is required this year vs last. Consider 530 million went to dividends, that leaves at best $230 million for dividends this year or about 8 cps. Seems reasonable for a SP around $1.50 - especially when you convert form USD to AUD. But. Aluminum was/is expected to be in surplus this year. Prices have tanked. The main user is transport. Not exactly a very hot sector at the moment. At the AGM - dividends were specifically flagged as being under review given corona virus. I doubt they will borrow to keep dividends as they speak about keeping a balance sheet for cycles and low debt levels. With margins where they are, EBITDA might be below $500m.

Everyone should be worried about the state of commodities for the next year. The entire world has been partially shut down for 3 months. People still need food, clothes, TV, drugs, alcohol. They don't need new cars, airplanes, refrigerators, and Macbooks. I'm interested in AWC, cost curve position is excellent, but will gamble, wait it out and see if this plunges lower on tax loss selling and assume general doom and gloom predictions will scare more people in to selling, triggering stop losses.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

CCL - Cuscal Limited
Replies
9
Views
1K
Dona Ferentes
AXG - Axon Graphite
Replies
0
Views
559
Dona Ferentes
CMX - ChemX Materials
Replies
4
Views
2K
Garpal Gumnut
RNV - ReNerve Limited
Replies
1
Views
442
Dona Ferentes
A
Setting up recurring QQQM purchase advice
Replies
2
Views
547
divs4ever
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...