AWC - Alumina Limited

[haggis]

been keeping an eye on this one for a couple of monthsHas started to move on low global inventories, and possible higher Japan rates for Alumina.
Awc has good infrastructure and supply in west aus, and has recently upgraded some infrastructure, that will increase volume and lower maintenance down time.
Still a long way back from highs, but should come good long term.( 6- 12 mths)
PS first post-- would appreciate feed back on whether this is enough info, or do i need to add more?

 

[johannlo]

Me too (keeping an eye on it that is) I'm targeting it as my next big player resources purchase, been into all the juniors and explorers so far. Waiting for the right time but I need to cash something in to free up the $$$ and at this juncture I'm not confident enough to make my sideways move (i.e. this at bottom of the short term cycle, my selling at the top). Learning, learning

 

[mr_delta]

Hi Guys,

Bought Alumina last month at an average of around $1.70.

Fundamentally looks good with a good quarterly issued but technically not so sure. Any chartist out there who can throw some light on thistechnically?

Thanks in advance...

Mr_Delta

 

[El Toro]

I notice that Charlie Aitken from Under the Southren Cross has been doing some favourable write ups on AWC lately.

 

[El Toro]

Does anyone on here get the "Under the Southern Cross" daily newsletter?

What are the other daily newsletters do you use?

 

[wilto]

I bought AWC last mth @ .73c. The price is on the move in the right direction. Being new to share trading and this my 1st trade in shares, I'm wondering whats the long term forecast for aluminium. Cheers!
This sheds a bit of light on things. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/idUSWLA243920120829?feedType=RSS&feedName=bondsNews&rpc=43

 

[burglar]

Nice upturn, if you hold some!

Disclosure: I do not hold

 

[wilto]

Starting to get the hang of this chart thing. Looks like they are trending with aord,axjo, and the dow. Something to compare to any way.

 

[Ann]

Just a chart with a rather bearish outlook for the short term of AWC. Sorry CanOz, I see no flag waving on a flagpole, simply a thwarted bid for freedom through the short term overhead. It may break back up! Let's see!

 

[CanOz]

Just a chart with a rather bearish outlook for the short term of AWC. Sorry CanOz, I see no flag waving on a flagpole, simply a thwarted bid for freedom through the short term overhead. It may break back up! Let's see!

lol....no worries Ann, no skin in the game for me on this....just came across it while eyeballing some stocks.

CanOz

 

[Country Lad]

........just a wee flag...

Could very well be a wee one.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Valued]

Interesting price action last two days. looks like a breakout supported by volume. It looks like the stock was being accumulated to me but I could be wrong. It seems to have broken out on decent volume and continued upwards. Last breakout ended up in a v shape though so we will see how this one goes.

I have entered a long position on AWC as of today. I wouldn't take up a position near the reporting date though. They might lose more money. This was a purely technical decision. The company itself looks kind of rubbish. I don't even understand what it is they do, but they are good at earning low returns on equity.

 

[notting]

Some fat boys came in around the 1.22 and dropped on a few loaded bases trying to push the thing up.
They didn't sit and wait to be taken out.
Just depends on how deep their pockets are, clearly they don't want to hold.

 

[Valued]

PPT was buying in the trading range. They will probably want to push it up. It will be clear if they start selling.

 

[Valued]

There was super strong resistance yesterday. When we were heading on close 1 million share orders were coming in to sell. The buying was only just stronger than the selling. The move up was quite narrow. This is not a good sign generally. They have disappeared this morning. The price is moving up with low volume trades. It looks to me that retail traders are just pushing the price up. Shhh no one tell them the price of Aluminium was down yesterday or they will panic sell

 

[pavilion103]

I like this one at 1.35.
If it breaks it could be good.
I have a pending order.

 

[pavilion103]

Still consolidating.
Will be an interesting one to watch in the coming weeks I reckon.

 

[galumay]

Still consolidating.
Will be an interesting one to watch in the coming weeks I reckon.

A dangerous play i reckon, RIO have closed the Gove Refinery, and its very much on the cards that Yarwun in Gladstone will be shut down too, Alcoa have announced Point Henry Smelter to shut down and the Kwinana Refinery is earmarked to close as well.

Thats a lot of bad news for AWC to absorb!

The real problem is that there is no real money in Alumina - well not the sort of money the big miners want, RIO only want what they call 'Tier 1' businesses, round 70% ROI, copper and iron are at this end of the market, various other minerals fall in the 'Tier 2' category - 40-70% ROI and poor old alumina has never been above about 20% even in its best years.

Australia is moving towards just being a bauxite exporter, mining is cheap, the RIO's & BHP do shovel to ship well but their structural incompetence makes it difficult for them to refine efficiently, so other companies overseas will end up with the refineries and smelters. Energy costs do play a part in that story here, but its greatly overstated.

 

[pavilion103]

I'm not looking to get in for medium/long term on fundamental analysis.

I'm purely a technical trader who trades momentum.

I enjoy the thoughts of longer term traders, whose approaches are obviously different.

 

[galumay]

I'm not looking to get in for medium/long term on fundamental analysis.

I'm purely a technical trader who trades momentum.

I enjoy the thoughts of longer term traders, whose approaches are obviously different.

Hey Pav, I did note you were approaching it from a TA/trading point of view, and I appreciate you are not looking at AWC as a long term investment, I just thought the storm clouds are building and it may be set for a strong downturn which might limit opportunities for profitable trading!