AWC - Alumina Limited

[DrBourse]

Hi frugal.rock.....

AWC Financials are disgusting....
Their TA is obviously not much better....

The Progress Grid below shows that AWC FINANCIALS HAVE BEEN IN DECLINE SINCE 22/7/18....
View attachment 161622

View attachment 161623

And the chart below sums up AWC pretty well.....
The last few days candles reflect a slight Loss of Downward Monentum, but that is about the only +ive I can see atm - The Candles from 8/8/23 to today (and maybe more) will form another Benchmark Candle Formation - need to wait for a few more days B4 I can work that one out..... - but it will probably mean more bad news for AWC IMO....
View attachment 161624
Certainly NOT a Buffett Style Stock - matter of fact I don't like them either......

Cheers...
DrB.

Hi Brenton....
Look back at my post #113 on 29/8/23.....
AWC's position has only Declined Further since 29/8/23....
The Bottom for AWC is still nowhere in sight.....
The Current Chart Below shows numerous -ive TA signals - Very Ugly actually....

The good bit of news is that AWC only has another 0.725cents to fall....

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Portland, Boyne Island, Tomago were all set up, or expanded, in the 80s based on (then) new coal fired stations and cheap base load power from locked In contracts. Now that coal is taken out of the equation, how long b4 things change for the smelters?

 

[sptrawler]

Portland, Boyne Island, Tomago were all set up, or expanded, in the 80s based on (then) new coal fired stations and cheap base load power from locked In contracts. Now that coal is taken out of the equation, how long b4 things change for the smelters?

That's exactly what I'm alluding to in #120, no one knows where or when the energy mix is going to end up settling, until then no one knows which material processing plants are going to be viable.
It may well end up much more cost effective, to just send all the raw materials overseas for processing, I'm guessing it will be for two reasons.
Labour costs and lack of margin to justify changing most processes over to full electric, taking bauxite to alumina for example, from my understanding process steam is a by product of the power station steam generation.
Therefore it serves two purposes, to make the steam for the plant and to generate the electricity from the steam turbines, to change that to a purpose built renewable installation would take a lot of capital I would guess.
So is it actually worth processing the bauxite here, or shipping it raw to be processed in Indonesia or China? Time will tell

Indonesia to Ban Bauxite Export from June 2023: An Explainer - Indonesia Guide | Doing Business in Indonesia

www.aseanbriefing.com

On December 21, 2022, President Joko Widodo announced that Indonesia will impose a bauxite export ban starting from June 2023, in a move to shore up the domestic processing of its mineral resources. In this article, we explain what the bauxite export ban is, why Indonesia introduces the bauxite export ban, and what the potential impacts are.
Indonesia introduces the bauxite ban to replicate its success in nickel processing after banning the export of raw nickel material in January 2020.

According to Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chairman Arsjad Rasjid, the export value of the country’s Nickel export reached US$20.9 billion in 2021 and is expected to exceed US$30 billion in 2022, from only US$1.1 billion at the end of 2014. Arsjad believes the export ban can benefit Indonesia’s economy.

Now through the bauxite ban, President Widodo hopes more value can be added domestically, more jobs can be created, more foreign exchange reserves can be increased, and more equitable economic growth can be achieved.

“The government will continue to consistently carry out domestic down streaming so that added value is enjoyed domestically for the progress and welfare of the people,” President Widodo wrote on Facebook on December 21, 2022.
Indonesia is rich in multiple resources and the export ban on bauxite ore won’t be the last one.

According to Indonesia’s Mining Law, the export of other unprocessed minerals such as copper will also be stopped, though the timing of the export ban on other minerals hasn’t been specified.

As President Widodo said, “Basically, at the end of the day, we don’t want to sell raw materials. We want to sell something semi-ready.”

 

[divs4ever]

Portland, Boyne Island, Tomago were all set up, or expanded, in the 80s based on (then) new coal fired stations and cheap base load power from locked In contracts. Now that coal is taken out of the equation, how long b4 things change for the smelters?

actually i was watching smelters go off-line ( or being reduced output ) in NZ and they are mainly powered by hydro ( and geothermal )

so the coal-factor isn't the only concern ( hard to blame emissions if hydro is turning the generators ) but the NZ water storage is below mean currently so hydro isn't as cheap as it could be

( i hold several power utility stocks in NZ )

 

[divs4ever]

That's exactly what I'm alluding to in #120, no one knows where or when the energy mix is going to end up settling, until then no one knows which material processing plants are going to be viable.
It may well end up much more cost effective, to just send all the raw materials overseas for processing, I'm guessing it will be for two reasons.
Labour costs and lack of margin to justify changing most processes over to full electric, taking bauxite to alumina for example, from my understanding process steam is by product of the power station steam generation.
Therefore it serves two purposes, to make the steam for the plant and to generate the electricity from the steam turbines, to change that to a purpose built renewable installation would take a lot of capital I would guess.
So is it actually worth processing the bauxite here, or shipping it raw to be processed in Indonesia or China? Time will tell

well a ( fair ) while back CSR were trying out solar , but since there is no recent song and dance about it in the CSR reports , i am guessing solar won't do enough even in North Queensland

 

[sptrawler]

well a ( fair ) while back CSR were trying out solar , but since there is no recent song and dance about it in the CSR reports , i am guessing solar won't do enough even in North Queensland

The thing is, a huge amount of renewables and storage has to be put in just to replace domestic consumption, it isn't even imaginable that enough will be put in to supply it cheaply to industry, therefore the industries will have to put in their own.

Then the problem becomes do they have the land available to generate enough to meet their requirement, is their location suitable for the solar or wind generation? If not where do they put it and how do they get it to the plant, then is it actually worth it in the difference they get per kg for alumina Vs bauxite.

It may well be easier and more profitable to sell it to China, as Indonesia is reducing its exports of bauxite, so we could make up the shortfall.

Sell the bauxite to Indonesia, as they are ramping up their processing capacity of alumina, using coal fired generation one assumes.

Australia may possibly end up the cleanest 3rd world country, with the most expensive housing in the Southern hemisphere.
Time will tell how long it is, before we don't feel so smug and superior.

Who is the largest exporter of thermal coal?

Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, is also the most flexible. In 2021, it increased its exports by 27 Mt to 434 Mt, exporting more than twice as much as Australia (199 Mt).

Would I buy alumina shares? As @IFocus would say "ye Nah", we have a long way to go yet IMO.

 

[divs4ever]

well not far from my current residence is a large solar farm ( several acres of panels ) and some sheep are keeping the grass down

but that is in Southern Queensland , am not sure where the power goes , looks too big to big running the local diary ( which is rather big , feedlot affair )

i don't see any heavy industry nearby ( not even a shopping town )

 

[finicky]

You seem to be groping in the dark. You don't need much power to run a diary.

 

[divs4ever]

You seem to be groping in the dark. You don't need much power to run a diary.

View attachment 165663

well there are a lot of panels on that solar farm , a lot of cattle on that diary , compared to the surrounding beef farms and not much else within 10 kms

so since the whole thing isn't that far from coal country ( Acland/New Hope Coal ) .... i doubt the solar farm is running the local train service

maybe some elite has turned an abandoned mine into a DUMB ( or some secret annex for Amberley Air Base )

 

[eskys]

Some unintentional comedy, poor old divs....he needs to unscramble

 

[divs4ever]

would prefer AWC to drop below 70 cents today , but that seems unlikely today

 

[Smurf1976]

One of my picks for the 2024 trading competition.

It's a purely speculative pick based on the share price being close to a level that has historically been significant as either resistance or support going back as far as the 1960's and on a number of occasions since.

Long term, I've serious concerns about the viability of the company's business due to the energy situation but in the shorter term I'm speculating on a price bounce over the next year.

 

[sptrawler]

One of my picks for the 2024 trading competition.

It's a purely speculative pick based on the share price being close to a level that has historically been significant as either resistance or support going back as far as the 1960's and on a number of occasions since.

Long term, I've serious concerns about the viability of the company's business due to the energy situation but in the shorter term I'm speculating on a price bounce over the next year.

It is hard to see how energy intensive industries are going to compete in the near future, long term possibly, but it will take huge Govt subsidies IMO.
Short term?

 

[divs4ever]

It is hard to see how energy intensive industries are going to compete in the near future, long term possibly, but it will take huge Govt subsidies IMO.
Short term?

but on the other hand the world needs aluminium because it is light and now essential for much manufacturing and construction ( albeit fittings and cladding )

would the Aluminum smelters start installing small nuke power stations to get around the carbon emission taxes

 

[sptrawler]

but on the other hand the world needs aluminium because it is light and now essential for much manufacturing and construction ( albeit fittings and cladding )

would the Aluminum smelters start installing small nuke power stations to get around the carbon emission taxes

In Australia, no, we have a moratorium on nuclear that doesn't look like being lifted in the short term.
The world needs aluminium for light weight fabrication, on a World scale we fabricate very little and we have four smelters producing 1.6m tonnes.
China manufactures 37m tonnes, and manufactures most components, at the end of the day we have to be competitive, if it is a lot cheaper to import the product from China how do we keep our smelters open? I would like to think the world will want to buy our our 'clean' aluminium, no matter what the cost, but history doesn't support that dream.
History shows, that it is cheaper to export the raw material for processing offshore, when processing costs become prohibitive here.
maybe this time it will be different, but I won't be gambling on it and I do hope I'm proven wrong.

 

[frugal.rock]

Chart update.

 

[divs4ever]

Chart update.

View attachment 168625

i was half-expecting the move to be in the other direction , but here we are , and i am further away from being lured to buy ( back in )

 

[Smurf1976]

i was half-expecting the move to be in the other direction , but here we are , and i am further away from being lured to buy ( back in )

On one hand I really don't like to see the demise of another industry, workers out of a job and so on.

On the other hand I bought AWC shares on the 12th of December 2023 and so far it's been an excellent trade, up 50.6% in just under a month.

That's a short term trade however not a long term investment. The buy decision being based purely on price action during the period 27-11 to 7-12 inclusive. Exit will be on the stop, the level of which is reviewed weekly based strictly on a formula.

 

[divs4ever]

On one hand I really don't like to see the demise of another industry, workers out of a job and so on.

On the other hand I bought AWC shares on the 12th of December 2023 and so far it's been an excellent trade, up 50.6% in just under a month.

That's a short term trade however not a long term investment. The buy decision being based purely on price action during the period 27-11 to 7-12 inclusive. Exit will be on the stop, the level of which is reviewed weekly based strictly on a formula.

i held AWC between June 2012 ( @ 75 cents ) and finally exited February 2015 ( @ $2.06 )

but there were times i worried i had made an error

good luck , i usually hold a stock for years

 

[sptrawler]

On one hand I really don't like to see the demise of another industry, workers out of a job and so on.

On the other hand I bought AWC shares on the 12th of December 2023 and so far it's been an excellent trade, up 50.6% in just under a month.

That's a short term trade however not a long term investment. The buy decision being based purely on price action during the period 27-11 to 7-12 inclusive. Exit will be on the stop, the level of which is reviewed weekly based strictly on a formula.

Very courageous. Lol