AWC - Alumina Limited

[pavilion103]

Love hearing your thoughts.

One of the reasons I post in these stock threads is because I can pick up a fundamental perspective (whether or not it influences me I'm not sure).

 

[galumay]

Love hearing your thoughts.

One of the reasons I post in these stock threads is because I can pick up a fundamental perspective (whether or not it influences me I'm not sure).

vice versa, no better way to test ones ideas and assumptions than to explain them to someone who has a different world view! Also not sure how much it influences me, but I hope it at least informs me.

Of course the other thing is that two TA's or two FA's will often come to a different conclusion with the same information - I am sure some will see the problems with all the other players in the industry as a potential strength for AWC!

 

[sptrawler]

Aluminium inventories are low, smelters closing, wondering if it may be time to have a flutter on Alumina?
Alcoa's profits rising and demand in the auto sector is up 200% in the last 12 months.

What the heck, I've jumped in $1.47. lol

 

[notting]

Did beautifully from July 2012 up to the start of this year then just lost it's mojo, for no obvious reason.
Although apparantly German car sales have gone south in China over the last quarter or so.
This is one indicator we can trust, cause it's recorded by Germans not filthy lying Chinese.
So China is week despite its stock market running up over that six month period, government was trying to fudge the weakness by ramping the share market in local media.
I bought a little AWC today although it needs to get through 1.50 with conviction to be looking like making another run.

 

[sptrawler]

Well they usually go ex dividend mid August, so hopefully there will be a little joy there. But I can't see demand for aluminium in the car industry reducing.
Especially if electric vehicle popularity increases, minimal weight is paramount for battery powered vehicles. Anyway just a small speculative flutter in the super, have to get income from somewhere.

 

[joeno]

The financials look weak for Alumina. Not sure why anyone would buy in at the moment. I'll wait until it goes down to $1.2 before i'd even think about it

 

[notting]

The financials look weak for Alumina. Not sure why anyone would buy in at the moment. I'll wait until it goes down to $1.2 before i'd even think about it

Technically it has some support around this area.

 

[sptrawler]

Well big profit jump, and a fully franked dividend U.S 4.5c.
Shame I didn't hold off a couple of weeks before jumping in, still IMO the fundamentals for aluminium and AWC haven't changed.
My guess is still strong growth over the next 12 - 18 months, on the back of strong demand for aluminium.

http://www.fool.com.au/2015/08/19/alumina-limited-swings-to-a-big-profit-is-it-a-buy/

 

[Porper]

Well big profit jump, and a fully franked dividend U.S 4.5c.
Shame I didn't hold off a couple of weeks before jumping in, still IMO the fundamentals for aluminium and AWC haven't changed.
My guess is still strong growth over the next 12 - 18 months, on the back of strong demand for aluminium.

http://www.fool.com.au/2015/08/19/alumina-limited-swings-to-a-big-profit-is-it-a-buy/

I have been tempted to jump on but the bottom line is that alumina prices are struggling with the Chinese holding all the cards.

Price has hit the 50% - 61.8% zone but too quickly compared to the prior leg higher. More likely that a larger consolidation pattern is underway...maybe a Triangle or flat pattern. Both offer higher prices but not liking today's selling into better than anticipated results. Weak close. Also now sitting beneath resistance.

 

[sptrawler]

Good points Porper, lucky it isn't a precise science.

I'm not a trader though, so I'm more looking for something that will give a dividend and possible medium term price growth. The problem with SMSF's IMO, you have to try and stay in front of your drawdown.
So medium term dividend or flip for cg, and long term sit and hold, always play a part in my portfolio.
I don't have the skill or knowledge to play the trading game.

 

[sptrawler]

Picked another parcel at $1.16, while on holidays, don't you hate coming home to a spec turning up.

 

[Wyatt]

AWC is a stock with both medium and longer term momentum, current chart may be topping or just having a breather. Aluminium/Alumina demand seems to be growing along with prices and supply looks to be tighter than it has been for quite a while, although some input costs are also rising. There is a reasonable divvy in there for good measure and operations are tier 1, apparently.
Price action on 2/3/17 was bullish, but lacklustre since. Anyone else interested atm?
Oh Yeah i think i read there is a truckload of franking credits as well

 

[Boggo]

... Anyone else interested atm?

Got some in my SMSF, giving it room to move at the moment.

Weekly chart

 

[Cam019]

Price action on 2/3/17 was bullish, but lacklustre since. Anyone else interested atm?

AWC currently in a trading range. 02/03/17 saw a gap up bar, but floating supply entered the market and as a result the price was unable to push through the previous resistance at $2.04. There is also resistance at $2.10 which can be seen on Boggos weekly chart. The bar on the 13/01/2017 caught my interest. We have an extremely high volume down bar with a narrow spread closing on the low. I find it interesting that I previously would have thought that this was bearish sign but take a look 8 days later, a gap up on increased volume closing on the high. When I look at the down bar, I now see a bullish signal. I see supply being bought up by demand due to the bars narrow spread. If there was no demand and that kind of volume, we would have seen a huge wide spread down bar. There must be a significant amount of buyers buying up the supply entering the market.

I personally wouldn't be trading AWC until I saw a breakout and a close above $2.10.

Daily chart:

 

[Boggo]

Got some in my SMSF, giving it room to move at the moment

Follow up from post #53 above.
AWC came down and turned at W4 close to my stop at $1.64 and then turned up but not as far as I would have liked. I expected it to break through $2 and into the Min W5 area but it hit that resistance and is on its on the way down again.

Lets see what happens from here, back up I hope !

 

[sptrawler]

I held AWC until the dispute with Alcoa, then off loaded them, as their dividend may suffer.
I'm still not convinced their dividend is sustainable, I'm tending to think that S32, may be a better bet.
Reason being S32 is more diverse and as far as I know, hasn't exported raw bauxite yet.

I do hold S32.

 

[Boggo]

I held AWC until the dispute with Alcoa, then off loaded them, as their dividend may suffer.
I'm still not convinced their dividend is sustainable, I'm tending to think that S32, may be a better bet.
Reason being S32 is more diverse and as far as I know, hasn't exported raw bauxite yet.

I do hold S32.

I hold AWC in my SMSF based on my weekly system. I did have S32 in a watchlist for a while but it ran out of time for a response, the system will pick it up again if it turns up.
Will keep an eye on the dividend prospect on AWC sptrawler, that could change market sentiment.

As an aside exercise I am tracking about a dozen stocks behaviour with EW (yeah, I know). I am currently looking at the current position on AWC being in a Wave.5. The Wave.4 turnaround was just above my Amibroker weekly trailing stop (now at 1.65).

Based on the current exercise I am expecting it to get close to $2.30 in a few months.

Chart of EW dynamics (click to enlarge).

 

[sptrawler]

I will keep an eye on your chart, I've got to increase my exposure to aluminium, LME levels are getting down to historic lows.
IMO the price of aluminium could really take off, demand is ever increasing and supply seems to be dwindling, due to the cost of electricity. It should end up in a huge shortfall.

 

[Boggo]

I will keep an eye on your chart, I've got to increase my exposure to aluminium, LME levels are getting down to historic lows.
IMO the price of aluminium could really take off, demand is ever increasing and supply seems to be dwindling, due to the cost of electricity. It should end up in a huge shortfall.

Still going in the right direction sptrawler.

Nice little kick along today.

Yesterday's daily chart.

 

[sptrawler]

Still going in the right direction sptrawler.

Nice little kick along today.

Yesterday's daily chart.
View attachment 72369

All looking good, I'm looking for a top up opportunity on S32, pre divi.