AVZ - AVZ Minerals

[tech/a]

Think this has stopped its down move.
.078 is stop if hit to the down side.
If I was to buy this Id buy at the low 8s
and look for sell at 13 is hold over 13.5c
Right now its consolidating within that VC Bar
Range.

 

[galumay]

You would be a brave duck to buy this business! Given the events that have unfolded its looking quite possible that this will go to nothing, quickly. Its another company built on hype and pumping over at HC, same players, same story, different day.

 

[barney]

I know very little about AVZ but a quick look through recent announcements shows a fairly high cash burn rate ….

Close to $30 million in capital raised since last August ….. although they still had around $23 million as of the March Quarter …. so plenty of cash on hand.

Don't know a lot about Lithium but they are apparently drilling up some decent widths and grades …

JORC resource expected during July ….

The chart is showing signs of a potential reversal form an extended downtrend …..

Looks a reasonable punt from a Spec point of view but a punt is still a punt … and given their market Cap of $190 million … the punt needs to be backed with something concrete ….

Interested in your comment that it could go to nothing though @galumay ….. I note they have had some minor legal issues to deal with but they are now sorted?? …… Just curious. Cheers.

 

[galumay]

I note they have had some minor legal issues to deal with but they are now sorted?? …… Just curious. Cheers.

The risk is they are not sorted, that there is much more uncovered and/or ASIC or the ASX take some action against the market manipulation that has gone on. There is a small industry in ripping off retail investors in these speccy resource plays whith keywords like "lithium", "blockchain", "Cannabis" etc. A fair indicator is watching the pumpers and rampers on HC, often insiders in both the business and the site.

If you want to risk your hard earned in setups like this its worth trying to find out who is playing what game, there are some guys that post on twitter that work very hard to uncover these sort of rorts.

The regulators are pretty hopeless at policing the manipulation, I recently had an email conversation about some of this stuff with someone senior at ASX, the end result was he just claimed, "its not our problem, we just make sure companies comply with listing rules. What the directors do on social media to manipulate prices and defraud retail investors is not within our control." (paraphrased)

 

[barney]

OK thanks for that …. As I say, I don't know much about this operation …. for Spec plays in general, the quality of management is one of my top requirements before I put down a cent now days …… Even with due diligence we punters can never be sure if we are being fed truth or something slightly twisted. Will keep a lazy eye on this Stock for future reference.

 

[greggles]

AVZ has climbed back to 15c over the last month. The chart for June and July is starting to resemble a cup. Now we just need the handle.

Volume in the last month has been relatively low so there has been little supply for the buyers wishing to get on board. 15c does appear to be an area of resistance so it may struggle to get and stay above it.

There has been no news of note for the last couple of weeks so the move back up to 15c has been on the back of improving sentiment. I suspect that it will retreat from 15c a little or consolidate just below it until there is a catalyst that determines its direction one way or another.

 

[barney]

Not sure what to make of this one …. The Chart actually looks good to me in the short term but the abrupt reversal off the recent bottom adds a couple of question marks. On the fence at the moment.

 

[greggles]

Not sure what to make of this one …. The Chart actually looks good to me in the short term but the abrupt reversal off the recent bottom adds a couple of question marks. On the fence at the moment.

It's retreated from 15c today as I suspected it would. There just doesn't seem to be enough volume to push it through that resistance. Sellers have taken control this morning and it's dropped back to 14c.

I think AVZ is going to need a catalyst of some sort to push it through 15c and will most likely drift around and consolidate between 10c and 15c until we get a clear direction one way or the other.

 

[barney]

Management indicated they were to release a JORC resource in July …. That leaves Friday or next Monday. They have some pretty healthy Intervals on their drilling so far …
Wouldn't be surprised to see some end of month Speccing on that if the numbers are good.

A lot of recent volume traded around the 9-10 cent area so there would have to be some profit taking on any good news/spike you'd reckon … Its a punt but probably a fair punt for a short term trade

 

[greggles]

I have nothing to add on this particular Stock other than "the chart says it all" … and the old adage of "where there is smoke there is fire" rings true when trading the Spec end of the market.

Very true barney. Speccies are inherently risky and are not the kind of stocks to hold long term unless you are a high conviction investor with a well researched and in-depth understanding of the relevant business. However, all the research and analysis in the world cannot account for all contingencies. We're all still punters, irrespective of how certain we might be.

As for AVZ Minerals, all I can do is echo "the chart says it all" and in this case the chart is screaming "Sell!"

 

[galumay]

If you want to risk your hard earned in setups like this its worth trying to find out who is playing what game,

The Hot Copper rampers, pumpers and dumpers shook the poor old retail investors out of the tree again.
Investors need to look at management of companies and check their track records, this one has been in the making for quite a while. Hope no one here did their money.

 

[myrtie100]

I'm choosing this one for the June 19 tipping comp.
There seems to be quiet a bit of excitement at the moment, up 33% today!
The volume has been building over the past couple of weeks.
It's fallen from .36c, 18 months ago, and now appears to have found the bottom.

 

[SilverRanger]

This is my pick for the July tipping comp, I'm hoping to see a similar move in May. AVZ now holds 5% extra for their tenament, which will translate into even greater share of profit if this eventually takes off

 

[Trav.]

After making a couple of bucks on this I got sucked into going back for more and that was not a good move. That's what you get when you break your rules, so I thought that I should fess up and post my failure

Looking severely oversold at the moment and can move pretty quick, so I am left waiting on some catalyst to give it another run.

 

[Trav.]

I thought that I would delve in a little deeper and look at what AVZ has been up to.

Timeline from Scoping Study which gives a good indication on the next set of catalyst that is required to get the SP moving again. The Met work is underway and due Q4 but no progress updates so far which I am sure people are waiting for.

Also highlights the issue about funding which will be interesting as this resource is in the DRC and AVZ recently executed a Strategic Relationship Agreement with Huayou Cobalt Group( Chinese cobalt supplier ) which is non binding and non exclusive.

Some key recent announcements shown below and their effect on the SP

 

[Sean K]

I thought that I would delve in a little deeper and look at what AVZ has been up to.

I've had a look at this and while it's a massive resource and high grade, it's in the middle of Africa, in the DRC. Major geostrategic risk and the logistics look prohibitive. It's 1600km to Dar es Salam. eek! How big is the concentrate that needs to be further refined? Must be train loads. Such a shame it's not 50km from Perth.

 

[Sean K]

Looking at their last figures makes it seem economical though. Just have to believe in the transport costs and the long term assumed price of Li2O.

 

[Trav.]

View attachment 96035 Such a shame it's not 50km from Perth.

Then it definitely wouldn't get of the ground, too many do-gooders greenies over here.

 

[barney]

I doubt the chart troubles are directly related to AVZ in particular … A lot of lithium Stocks had a little spike a while back and looked like a resurgence was happening, then all have been unceremoniously dumped since ….. I bought some LPD a while back, probably with the same idea as you with AVZ @trav … it looked good for a second, then bit me on the rump …….. I sold half and am just about to dump the rest …. that's when it will take off again lol ……. I still love Specs for some reason

 

[Trav.]

View attachment 96035 I've had a look at this and while it's a massive resource and high grade, it's in the middle of Africa, in the DRC. Major geostrategic risk and the logistics look prohibitive. It's 1600km to Dar es Salam. eek! How big is the concentrate that needs to be further refined? Must be train loads. Such a shame it's not 50km from Perth.

Just scanned the scoping study again and the high transport costs got a mention, but what jumped out for me was the following

I think that the Chinese will not let this resource sit idle for to long as the EV revolution is getting closer.