AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[rockhound308]

It is a good presentation.

Just the thing to show a sophisticated investor!

This may have been covered before but dose any one get exactly what the graphic on page 16 means, particular the Ipanema column. Is light blue representing wells to be drilled this year next year or what?

 

[AngusSmart]

It is a good presentation.

Just the thing to show a sophisticated investor!

This may have been covered before but dose any one get exactly what the graphic on page 16 means, particular the Ipanema column. Is light blue representing wells to be drilled this year next year or what?

Hey you mean page 15?? i'll attach. it looks to be that way. they hope to have 10 wells on ipanema this year if i read it correctly. it is a tad confusing with the muddled up quarters at the bottom

 

[5haretrader]

Not really sure why the SP of AUT has dropped off from its intraday high of 88cents. Things were looking quite good for a while there. Also I have noticed EKA has dropped back about 13% from its high of 23cents a few days back. On another share forum there seems to be a bit of a suggestion that someone is trying to offload their holding regardless of the share price. Doesn't make sense to me but could someone perhaps shed some light on this?

 

[Agentm]

tend to think aut needs some massive capital behind it to carry all this out.

those extra acreages would have had a huge drain on the cash also.

imho if your doing a presentation to brokers then your not just chatting about the company, but imho more about what the company needs.. and thats capital

my recent exit from aut was done on the basis that aut needs to secure further funding, and i think right now is the right time to do that.

when the whole funding issue is done and dusted and the share settles to its rightful place i will be considering a revisit.

yet to see cap raising done above the daily sp on an small cap oiler. so i expect some dilution and some retrace in the near term myself.

could be totally wrong on all this, but i am not putting a single dollar into this one until its clear to me they have the capital and the capacity and the ability to see through the next 6 - 12 months.

great presentation and agree with you rockhound on whom a presentation like that would be suited to

 

[Sdajii]

Not really sure why the SP of AUT has dropped off from its intraday high of 88cents. Things were looking quite good for a while there. Also I have noticed EKA has dropped back about 13% from its high of 23cents a few days back. On another share forum there seems to be a bit of a suggestion that someone is trying to offload their holding regardless of the share price. Doesn't make sense to me but could someone perhaps shed some light on this?

I've been puzzled by it too. Profit taking is all I can think of. At first I thought maybe people were jumping out of EKA and into AUT because they were impressed by AUT's announcement, including increase of acreage, but with AUT falling as well I'm a bit stumped. I had a little money put together though, so took the opportunity to stock up on EKA at 20c. If it turns out the EKA drop is due to someone selling out at any price, giddy up, and thank you to them!

 

[condog]

Agent i totally 110% disagree.

CR is imho not imminent at all, I hope im wrong.

Still got $6m in cash.

Only spent less then $2.5M in last 6 months.

Got less then $2M of expenses till cash flowing in.

Our share of 2010 forward drilling program is less then $4M and its not all due at once. Cash flow will cover if not prevent a CR altogether in 2010. So likely CR is late 2010 to mid 2011 if at all. It still may be a debt facility, rights issue, SPP or Performance oppies that fund any shortfall.

Anyhting else right now is offensive hyped upr pure speculation.

Certainly i wish they would CR $20M right now and drill drill drill, but from regular contact with the company, it appears thats not happening.

So settle pettle and dont speculate, do the sums.

There is no immediate or short term need for cash.

Im not saying it wont happen, but im saying its all pure 100% speculation.

Also any CR is likely to only make a 2-5c hit, this thing is stupidly underpriced as is, when thes Turnbulls flow lookout, anyone carrying on about a 2-5c dilution will get cought short imo and bad luck.

Jon Stewart is one switched on cookie imo, ive neen in his ear for months about the timing and style of CR. Hes professional and wont reveal anything, but im impressed with his attitude, that he wont be told how or when by any brokers with interests other then AUT holders.

 

[Agentm]

Agent i totally 110% disagree.

CR is imho not imminent at all, I hope im wrong.

Still got $6m in cash.

Only spent less then $2.5M in last 6 months.

Got less then $2M of expenses till cash flowing in.

Our share of 2010 forward drilling program is less then $4M and its not all due at once. Cash flow will cover if not prevent a CR altogether in 2010. So likely CR is late 2010 to mid 2011 if at all. It still may be a debt facility, rights issue, SPP or Performance oppies that fund any shortfall.

Anyhting else right now is offensive hyped upr pure speculation.

Certainly i wish they would CR $20M right now and drill drill drill, but from regular contact with the company, it appears thats not happening.

So settle pettle and dont speculate, do the sums.

There is no immediate or short term need for cash.

Im not saying it wont happen, but im saying its all pure 100% speculation.

Also any CR is likely to only make a 2-5c hit, this thing is stupidly underpriced as is, when thes Turnbulls flow lookout, anyone carrying on about a 2-5c dilution will get cought short imo and bad luck.

Jon Stewart is one switched on cookie imo, ive neen in his ear for months about the timing and style of CR. Hes professional and wont reveal anything, but im impressed with his attitude, that he wont be told how or when by any brokers with interests other then AUT holders.

lol

"offensive hyped up pure speculation"

condog

your post on the aut credit raising is complete rubbish.. your kidding yourself here condog. AUT would need about $20 - $30 mill right now, and just for an idea of how much would be needed in terms of the 23000 AMI acres.. about $200 mill for their share of the 2300 nett acreages to drill the wells there..

aut have over 10,000 nett acres.. the capital requirements to run the entire program are astronomical..

investing wisely and being very aware of the needs of AUT into the future is exactly why i sold out of the share. once AUT has the capital to run with the forward well program i may return but i would have to be pretty satisfied the company was in good shape and the ability to deal with most possibilities coming up in the following 6 -12 months.

its not "offensive hyped up pure speculation"..

as for "settle pettle.." ???? what are you on about condog? are you saying i am not allowed my own opinion, and not state that i am waiting for aut to cap raise before i consider buying the share again? listen condog.. your not going to intimidate me in any way here.. if i choose to have my opinion on aut i certainly can have it, your personal attack on me for having that opinion leaves you looking pretty weak imho..

condog i have done the sums, and i am sure aut have too, i think its you that has yet to understand and calculate the capital that is needed to roll out a massive drilling program into the acreages.

good luck with your calculations and try to calm down condog, i have invested my capital the way i wish to, into and out of aut.. and your calculations on aut and their immediate and long term capital spend is so far out its laughable..

when you say:

"Certainly i wish they would CR $20M right now and drill drill drill, but from regular contact with the company, it appears thats not happening."

are you saying that aut is keeping you well informed as to when it is happening? imho you best back that type of statement up with facts...

pretty bizarre statement condog.. be careful what you write when you disclose your conversations with aut..

 

[condog]

No with respect for your knowledge of the play which is extremely good, your wrong on this , very wrong imo.

How on earth do you possibly justify such a statement of $20-$30m right now. Give timelines and cash amounts as i have. What your saying defies all logic.

Granted i do not know exact lease dates and costs, although i have previously questioned mgmnt on this and they ahve stated they are extremely manageable within current cash and cash flow projections.

The aditional drilling is not due to start till this lot is finisehd, which are free carried, so there is actual no real need for cash. $6M in bank, no debt.

I am not privvey to any information other then you are, but given my large stake i keep regular contact and constantly ask any questions i feel i need to know the answer to.

They are extremely proffessional and like most good companies dont breach disclousre rules, but do answer questions of investors, they feel are within the rules.

Admin till cash flow starts is less then $2M. Cash flow starts not long adfter new drilling program commences, at best they will have 3 wells drilled by the time cash flow starts. 3 wells at say 10-20% is at most $2M form current cash at bank, still leaves over $2m when cash flow starts rolling in. That leaves another 3 wells for 2010 at cost of $1.8 - $2.5M to be funded from $2m cash plus cash flow from interests averaging 20% in 10 wells. Cant see 2010 presenting much of a cash problem.

2011 - yes undoubtably if the pace is fast will present very tight cash flow, but it really depends on the pace. Put it this way if AUT needs cash so will ADI and EKA on a bigger faster scale, yet i havent seen you posting this in the ADI thread??

Agent usualluy your posts are backed up by fabulous detail and facts / photos, but look at your 2.52pm post. No detail, pure speculation. Its not the normal you. Since you got out of AUt you havent stopped trying to bomb the price imo, but yet a few weeks ago at 77c you where saying it was a no brainer. Surely you acknowledge AUt is a fabulously better company with Rancho on board, the turnbulls about to be unleashed and the new leases, plus new program. I am regretably and reluctently questioning your current motives.

 

[condog]

Agent on the 6th june you said

"yes aut will be and is a no brainer, in a lot of ways, and i absolutely will be revisiting the share and have enjoyed the massive profits i have acquired with cashing in.. "

At that time AUT was around 78c-81c roughly.

Its now 82.5c with todays news and still $6M in bank.

?? Im not sure why its suddenly in your opinion no a no brainer any longer??

Is it becasue your out?? or is there a real reason, as imo cash and cash flow are not an issue any time now.

Id love it if youd give facts and numbers specific to AUT to demonstrate your view point.

 

[Slipperz]

I'm happy holding at this stage.

The news is all good, the drill program is on track with hillcorp to continue to derisk the acreages.

Funding options for 2010 are many and varied imho.

Every major in the world is drilling like crazy in the eagleford so what's to stop AUT and the jv partners from another farmout to hold the acreages while we continue with a secondary drill campaign from well revenue?

We seem to be in a pretty sweet spot for well results shouldn't be too hard to find someone who wants a piece our our action?

 

[condog]

I'm happy holding at this stage.

The news is all good, the drill program is on track with hillcorp to continue to derisk the acreages.

Funding options for 2010 are many and varied imho.

Every major in the world is drilling like crazy in the eagleford so what's to stop AUT and the jv partners from another farmout to hold the acreages while we continue with a secondary drill campaign from well revenue?

We seem to be in a pretty sweet spot for well results shouldn't be too hard to find someone who wants a piece our our action?

Couldnt agree more slipperz, thats it in a nutshell, nothing has chnaged for the worse except one mans opinion??

 

[Slipperz]

Well we all do what we feel is in our best interests.

No shortage of opinions on any market forum.

I certainly enjoy AgentM's insight, opinions and on the ground insides.

I'll leave you two to continue the battle


:jerry :jerry:jerry:jerry

 

[jancha]

Agent on the 6th june you said

"yes aut will be and is a no brainer, in a lot of ways, and i absolutely will be revisiting the share and have enjoyed the massive profits i have acquired with cashing in.. "

At that time AUT was around 78c-81c roughly.

Its now 82.5c with todays news and still $6M in bank.

?? Im not sure why its suddenly in your opinion no a no brainer any longer??

Is it becasue your out?? or is there a real reason, as imo cash and cash flow are not an issue any time now.

Id love it if youd give facts and numbers specific to AUT to demonstrate your view point.

Good point condog.
Hopefully Agentm can respond with a reasonable explaination with facts & figures otherwise he's just playing down AUT?

 

[condog]

I have modelled the new program and can easily adjust it to requiremnts. Its fully taxed at 40% $68net per boc and $4.25 gas, with $6M well cost.

We currently have $6M in the bank. Admin costs till cash flow starts is less then $2M, with lease costs lets allow $2.2M, leaves $3.8M

Once cash flow positive based on current projected declines and new wells operating at stable flows of just 500 and 2000, we will earn roughly $1.96M per month based on the 10 wells.

Kowalick will cost $600,000 or less, as will 3 SL wells.
Ipenema wells will cost approx $1.8M

Assuming current wells finish drilling and fraccing at lat July, thats 2 months + early. Cash flow we can presume will also be early, possibly up to two months, given results are becoming better then expected.

They will drill faster then one per month and will most likely start before we become cash flow positive. However having said that putting various scenarios its hard to find any logical drilling program where our cash flow becomes stressed to the point of a nececary CR. At Earliest id say October.

It defies any logic with the current drilling program to raise capital now, as capital in the bank is dead ROE and it attracts predators.

My new fully taxed valuation for endo of 2010 based on 500 and 2000 with $6M costs, $68net and $4.25net at 40% tax & royalties, plus 10% of the value of net 2011 wells = $1.78 unrisked. Or $1.60 with one dead well.

DYOR seek expert advice, do not rely on this or any other post for decisions.

 

[Agentm]

condog, perhaps take a valium and calm down.. your inability to deal with my decision to exit aut until they are funded is totally off the dial..



my decision to exit a share is totally my business. if you did the same i would not berate you, nor even question you, it would be totally your decision..

its almost as though your saying i cant make a decision on how i can trade based on market volatility and my views on the prudent capital requirements needed on a company i have invested in.. as i have stated b4 over and over. and today is the 10th june condog.. aut is certainly a no brainer.. it has huge upside (and equally downside risk), and it potentially has huge upside if circumstances permit, but i will perhaps buy aut in the future when things are as they need to be.. when the company has the ability to go further. lol even old john campbell managed to see that aut needs extensive capital months ago..

in light of the fact no obvious takeover of aut occurring, i envisage aut is planning to keep an interest in both its acreages and further wells, and that will require extensive capital.

i enjoyed the aut ride, and when re assessed the company in terms of its cash and its ability to fund any further acreages and any immediate well program as well as a potential forward well program, and along with market volatility, i can see no need to stay in aut unless aut has the capital in hand to go with the future wells for say 6 or more months.

your naive view on the cash requirements is your deal condog, and your maths and figures are as before, laughable..

adi has $9 mill and only 2300 nett acres.. i believe aut has 4 times that in acreages

adi has enough capital for about 9 months max ahead.. this from the awe compelling response..

"Adelphi has significant funding needs going forward: the Technical Expert notes that funding for over 200 wells will be required over time. Adelphi’s share is estimated by the Independent Expert at US$21 million for approximately 30 wells over the next 2-3 years, compared to Adelphi only having sufficient funds for the next 9 months;
“As the Sugarloaf asset is developed, Adelphi is likely to need to raise additional capital to supplement its existing cash balances. This would require additional investment by existing shareholders or dilution of their existing interests.” (Adelphi’s IER – page 31)"

condog , your desire to believe aut can survive long term on its capital is so far from reality.. please believe me when i say i will never believe your fantasy ever..


how i time my runs, how long i stay in or out of a share are decisions i make condog.. is totally my business, and i dont really appreciate your current disrespect for another investors opinion and your current ranting and raving over my decision to withdraw from aut until i feel like returning to it..


your aggressive behaviour towards me on my investment decisions, and your very condescending opinions on me regarding my investment decisions condog is remarkable.. and again, my view on your laughable maths on the capital requirements that aut will need in the near and long term is fantasy.. pure 100% fantasy.. and you assertions i am wrong and indeed very wrong on this is equally disturbing..

i would say i am pretty correct in my views condog, and that many would agree the maths you throw around are total fantasy..

gladly you do see the aut management is capable. imho when i see that those running aut are capable of going forward i will reconsider my position..

until then condog, despite your protests, i will remain in the wings waiting for a time when i feel comfortable investing further funds into these acreages..


post any cap raising..

good luck to you and all holders, as i say, i know plenty of aut holders and i want every one of them to make a killing on this share.. they deserve it..

 

[nunthewiser]

FWIW.

On a TECHNICAL basis from the chart i have in front of ME ........ AUT looking like one primo SHORT.

Provides a nice low % loss on stopout point if analysis is incorrect .

on MY technical viewpoint it should get a bit cheaper fairly soon.

last price 83.


I could always be wrong tho.

 

[estseon]

The joker in the pack is awe's laughable offer for adi.

Price dislocations between the partners have been closed by investors switching between them. ADI holders are looking at too much potential upside to switch at this stage.

There is also the likely CR hanging over the share. There is little sense in Hilcorp completing the farmout wells and then pulling out for 6 months. Each new drilling (advance commitment) will require at least US$1.75m from AUT. They've always said that they will raise additional capital. What has changed is the increased likelihood that there will be additional drilling this year. That's not negative - if that is right, it is because the acreage is just too attractive to leave fallow. AUT's AUD6m is almost certainly committed to S/L - look at the specific CRs of EME & ADI.

 

[pistol72]

im in agreeance with nun,momentum for this stock is slowing and possibly reversing in the S/T.triple divergance in the rsi suggests this.a corection back to the underlying trendline is a fair chance.P

 

[5haretrader]

For those with the technical charting know-how, where do you feel we have a good stable support to rest on while this 'correction' as you call it takes place?

 

[nioka]

FWIW.

On a TECHNICAL basis from the chart i have in front of ME ........ AUT looking like one primo SHORT.

Provides a nice low % loss on stopout point if analysis is incorrect .

on MY technical viewpoint it should get a bit cheaper fairly soon.

last price 83.


I could always be wrong tho.

How can you possibibly equate a technical chart based on past events with the current prospects for AUT is beyond me. The past echoes early failures and doubts about the potential. The future and the present should be based on the great results presently being obtained that show very little doubt about the future. A chart showing the drilling results would be a better chart to use to predict the SP in the future.