Hell!!
What shares have you owned that have halved in CR?
All the same i hope your right tho... i'd love to pick more at 40c!!!
AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
- Start date
Hell!!
What shares have you owned that have halved in CR?
All the same i hope your right tho... i'd love to pick more at 40c!!!
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i think the mid .70's or about .75 would be a place to start..
my view is that the capital needed is about $20 - $30 mill
so the dilution will be about 40,000,000 shares if thats the case
220 mill shares on issue atm
Don't forget that AWE might force ADI holders to look for a new avenue for investment in this project. Not all the money will necessarily be reinvested but not all will need to be to ensure a demand for the new issue. I doubt that EKA could absorb all of it without becoming over-priced. AWE has to show its hand by 2 July.
Agentm. As before with ADI and their CR....Do you think AUT will go with the sophisticated investors?
I'll take all I'm offered regardless of the price. I would expect the price to be around 75c. A few cents here or there at this stage matters little. What matterers is the results of the current drilling program. All I am hoping for is that the board do the right thing and offer the shareholders a bite of the cherry. Regardless of the issue price I doubt that it would have much long term effect on the SP. AUT shares should still be worth more than 2 ADI or 4 EKA. If they vary from that I'll continue to trade swaps with the three.
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Heard its 75c with a SPP too; not a terribly large raising. Management must be trying to cash in on the meteoric rise
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I am surprised at the timing of the cap raising.
By my calculations I thought it likely in Q4 2010 on the results of the drilling program and a stronger sp resulting in less dilution.
Whatever the reasons why, what for and for how much all will be revealed soon enough I guess
Currently I am out of AUT as I went in deep on NMS on Friday morning and sold off AUT which has turned out to be rather fortunate timing on my part.
Just watching the AUT price struggle late last week in a very positive market convinced me to take profit and move aside for a bit.
Probably after NMS has had it's little run I will reweight back into AUT post capraising
By my calculations I thought it likely in Q4 2010 on the results of the drilling program and a stronger sp resulting in less dilution.
Whatever the reasons why, what for and for how much all will be revealed soon enough I guess
Currently I am out of AUT as I went in deep on NMS on Friday morning and sold off AUT which has turned out to be rather fortunate timing on my part.
Just watching the AUT price struggle late last week in a very positive market convinced me to take profit and move aside for a bit.
Probably after NMS has had it's little run I will reweight back into AUT post capraising
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could well be a mix as skyquake is suggesting
but imho sophisticated would be primary..
if you look at the awe underpinning the cap raising price, to me it was illogical not to cap raise when hilcorp can go full field at any moment
if you noticed the recent turnbull wells were drilled in groups.. very much like the eog and murphy approach.. in that style of drilling large funds for many wells are needed and then similar for multiple fracs a month or two later.
4 mill would get you no where fast.. imho aut needs a larger cash account.
my view is that aut will need $20 - $30 mill and in todays climate the more the better..
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well
tomorrow is the 17th, so AUT should start trading again...
and there seems to be a lack of interest in buyers.
should be a very interesting day tomorrow,
and looking foreward to the announcement for the CP price
tomorrow is the 17th, so AUT should start trading again...
and there seems to be a lack of interest in buyers.
should be a very interesting day tomorrow,
and looking foreward to the announcement for the CP price
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well i hope you are right,
because imo it dosent look very good at the moment, only 19 buyers
for 200,000 shares, and 35 sellers for 750,000 shares,and indicative price is
at 0.80 so yeah
but hope you are right
because imo it dosent look very good at the moment, only 19 buyers
for 200,000 shares, and 35 sellers for 750,000 shares,and indicative price is
at 0.80 so yeah
but hope you are right
17/06/2010 asterix Suspension from Official Quotation
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100617/pdf/31qw62k4p7nr4v.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100617/pdf/31qw62k4p7nr4v.pdf
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Hell!!
What shares have you owned that have halved in CR?
All the same i hope your right tho... i'd love to pick more at 40c!!!
Nar it wasnt quiet half, but close enough and they wernt released to the average investor either
hopefully we can get a bit of the action here.
a bit of light reading to ease the boredom, worth a read they are very bullish on AUT & i like the bit about $2/sh.
this report is a few weeks old so an updated should be due shortly.
Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $0.86) Buy
Price Target: $1.18
Reason For Update: 30-day Production Data Morgan-1H & Easely-1H
What We Know:
The Sugarloaf AMI JV (AUT 10%) has released 30-day production results from their 2 most recent wells; Easely-1H and Morgan-1H.
Morgan-1H averaged 19.1mmscfe/day (vs. IP 31mmscfe/day), producing 38.5kkbls of condensate and 109mmscf of gas.
Easely-1H averaged 10.1mmscfe/day (vs. IP 17.9mmscfe/day), producing 12.2kkbls of condensate and 126mmscf of gas.
IP data from Rancho Grande-1H is expected shortly.
Turnbull-1H the first of the Longhorn AMI (AUT 25%) and we expect IP results within the next 3 weeks.
Turnbull-2H and 3H are cased and await fracture stimulation.
What We Think:
The 30-day results are excellent and continue to underscore the quality of the Sugarkane Field.
Furthermore, the Morgan well in particular, demonstrates both the proof of concept and optimization of well design are both paying dividends in terms of increased condensate yield and lower initial rates of decline.
The JV is of the view that condensate yield and (potentially) pressure regime increase further north in the Sugarloaf AMI (25%) and into the Longhorn AMI (AUT 25%): Morgan is the most northern to date in the Sugarloaf AMI.
Importantly, the well completion design (in terms of no. of frac stages, horizontal length and percentage of proppant) is being refined with each well and to date, the production data has shown benefit accordingly.
Using spot prices, the Morgan well produced gross revenues in the order of US$3m, whilst Easely grossed US$1.5m.
Noting well costs of between US$6.3-8m, payback forecasts of circa 6months appears achievable given the results to date.
This has tremendously positive implications in terms of time to free-cash-flow and thus generation of sustaining capital for field development.
Should the news from the Longhorn wells serve to further highlight the favourable characteristics of the trend, AUTs higher equity position in Longhorn improves leverage to the Sugarkane Field and thus attractiveness of the AUT investment proposition.
A maiden reserve and revised resource statement is expected in July we believe that this will serve to at the very least validate our current price target.
Our $1.18/sh price target reflects the valuation metrics provided for by the recent bid (and target statement) for ADI.
However, we believe that similar estimations of value may be applied to AUTs participating interests in the Ipanema and Longhorn AMIs with on-going drilling success.
This would serve to roughly double our valuation to circa $2/sh.
Further upside can be seen with continued and heightening corporate activity in the play most recently witnessed with Shells 250K acre foray into the liquids-prone part of the Eagle Ford play.
Investment Case:
These latest production results continue to firm the credentials of AUTs acreage within the Eagle Ford play. A distinct trend of improving yield, higher pressure and lower rates of decline is emerging as the drilling focus shifts further north towards the Longhorn AMI. Proof-of-concept can be further enhanced via forthcoming results from Rancho Grande-1H. These will be closely followed by IPs from the suite of Turnbull wells: positive results from the Longhorn AMI are a clear catalyst for the share price. In addition, with the revised resource and (potentially) maiden reserve in the Sep Q, we believe that AUT has all the elements required for a re-rating. We maintain our Buy recommendation with a revised price target of $1.18/sh.
this report is a few weeks old so an updated should be due shortly.
Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $0.86) Buy
Price Target: $1.18
Reason For Update: 30-day Production Data Morgan-1H & Easely-1H
What We Know:
The Sugarloaf AMI JV (AUT 10%) has released 30-day production results from their 2 most recent wells; Easely-1H and Morgan-1H.
Morgan-1H averaged 19.1mmscfe/day (vs. IP 31mmscfe/day), producing 38.5kkbls of condensate and 109mmscf of gas.
Easely-1H averaged 10.1mmscfe/day (vs. IP 17.9mmscfe/day), producing 12.2kkbls of condensate and 126mmscf of gas.
IP data from Rancho Grande-1H is expected shortly.
Turnbull-1H the first of the Longhorn AMI (AUT 25%) and we expect IP results within the next 3 weeks.
Turnbull-2H and 3H are cased and await fracture stimulation.
What We Think:
The 30-day results are excellent and continue to underscore the quality of the Sugarkane Field.
Furthermore, the Morgan well in particular, demonstrates both the proof of concept and optimization of well design are both paying dividends in terms of increased condensate yield and lower initial rates of decline.
The JV is of the view that condensate yield and (potentially) pressure regime increase further north in the Sugarloaf AMI (25%) and into the Longhorn AMI (AUT 25%): Morgan is the most northern to date in the Sugarloaf AMI.
Importantly, the well completion design (in terms of no. of frac stages, horizontal length and percentage of proppant) is being refined with each well and to date, the production data has shown benefit accordingly.
Using spot prices, the Morgan well produced gross revenues in the order of US$3m, whilst Easely grossed US$1.5m.
Noting well costs of between US$6.3-8m, payback forecasts of circa 6months appears achievable given the results to date.
This has tremendously positive implications in terms of time to free-cash-flow and thus generation of sustaining capital for field development.
Should the news from the Longhorn wells serve to further highlight the favourable characteristics of the trend, AUTs higher equity position in Longhorn improves leverage to the Sugarkane Field and thus attractiveness of the AUT investment proposition.
A maiden reserve and revised resource statement is expected in July we believe that this will serve to at the very least validate our current price target.
Our $1.18/sh price target reflects the valuation metrics provided for by the recent bid (and target statement) for ADI.
However, we believe that similar estimations of value may be applied to AUTs participating interests in the Ipanema and Longhorn AMIs with on-going drilling success.
This would serve to roughly double our valuation to circa $2/sh.
Further upside can be seen with continued and heightening corporate activity in the play most recently witnessed with Shells 250K acre foray into the liquids-prone part of the Eagle Ford play.
Investment Case:
These latest production results continue to firm the credentials of AUTs acreage within the Eagle Ford play. A distinct trend of improving yield, higher pressure and lower rates of decline is emerging as the drilling focus shifts further north towards the Longhorn AMI. Proof-of-concept can be further enhanced via forthcoming results from Rancho Grande-1H. These will be closely followed by IPs from the suite of Turnbull wells: positive results from the Longhorn AMI are a clear catalyst for the share price. In addition, with the revised resource and (potentially) maiden reserve in the Sep Q, we believe that AUT has all the elements required for a re-rating. We maintain our Buy recommendation with a revised price target of $1.18/sh.
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aut imho wont be chasing the completely staggeringly low amounts that AZZ just raised..
lol... $12 mill :horse: azz must be up for sale
back on topic.. there is little chance aut would be looking at anything under $30 - $40 mill
interest will be as to whether the share will kick back to the buy-in price
if it is as skyquake says, then the money from the sophisticated investors would pass in quick, and the average holder will gauge how to play it..
can the share run with the knowledge the SPP holders will sell into anything to pay for the cheap shares
you would bet against a rapid rise in the share from the issue price initially..
but will that be how the story unfolds??
lol... $12 mill :horse: azz must be up for sale
back on topic.. there is little chance aut would be looking at anything under $30 - $40 mill
interest will be as to whether the share will kick back to the buy-in price
if it is as skyquake says, then the money from the sophisticated investors would pass in quick, and the average holder will gauge how to play it..
can the share run with the knowledge the SPP holders will sell into anything to pay for the cheap shares
you would bet against a rapid rise in the share from the issue price initially..
but will that be how the story unfolds??
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do you think this valuation of AUT will remain the same
even though there will be a cap raising?
been a very slow day todayy
even though there will be a cap raising?
been a very slow day todayy
stefan_invester
imo they will raise the $1.18 target in the short term ,when this report was done they were aware of the need for a cap raising this report was done by the company that AUT presented to last week & i believe they were very impressed.plus after the cap raising there are results for turnbull 1,2,3 kowalik,ipanema , a reserves upgrade & plenty of money to drill .
imo they will raise the $1.18 target in the short term ,when this report was done they were aware of the need for a cap raising this report was done by the company that AUT presented to last week & i believe they were very impressed.plus after the cap raising there are results for turnbull 1,2,3 kowalik,ipanema , a reserves upgrade & plenty of money to drill .
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sounds wonderfull, and looks the same wayy
very much looking foreward to the next couple of weeks
and for AUT to continue trading once again
very much looking foreward to the next couple of weeks
and for AUT to continue trading once again
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That's pretty close to what's happened.
Nice to see the details include shareholders (as of 11 June) being able to buy up to $15k worth at 75c/share.
