AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[gerkin02]

I moved my aut stock into adi at 2.5 to 1 during the cap raising,

only time will tell if that was a good move.

Aut is an excellent stock in my opinion,

All the best,you definately have the right address here.

 

[condog]

I moved my aut stock into adi at 2.5 to 1 during the cap raising,

only time will tell if that was a good move.

Aut is an excellent stock in my opinion,

All the best,you definately have the right address here.

And whilst that has probably been not a super move, it was a derisking in a worrying time for some investors.

A far better move for most would have been to have done it last week while ADI was at 41c and AUT was roughly 67c. Then yesterday, today ot this week, next month when AUt gets enough over that ratio , eg 87c or so and ADI is 41 c swap back. Even to have swapped back yesterday youd have a 20%+ holding increase in ADI from a buy sell on spreads.

Each to thier own. I always keep big exposure to AUT, because imo its far better. But the parcel i move between them is doing better on a % basis, a lot better. Even after CGT and brokerage.

The TO premium has locked things up a bit. and the Turnbulls may make it more difficult for a little while. But when things stabilise, im sure ther will be opportunities on EKA / AUT spreads. Or other stock.

right now with AUt performanc , i think most are just happy to lock in exposure and see it green when the rest of thier portfolio is down 20+%. It gives you a possible 40%+ gain if you pick the bottom and trade, and a damn great gain if you just stay locked in.

For those that have been in AUt since Jan they are easily sitting on 140+% right now. Not too many stocks are doing that right now.

Even those that bought in last week are up 20%+, so so enjoy the ride folks, imo and its only an opinion, better times are just ahead for AUt.

Oil and gas is risky. But eaglefor somewhat de-risks that now. Things can still go wrong eg Kowalick.

DYOR and seek expert advice.

 

[stefan_invester]

its been a pretty slow day today, not much action
seems as though the market is waiting for something...

anyone know when any news is due out about or concerning AUT?
thanks

 

[5haretrader]

Well today has shown that a bit of resistance has developed at the 80cent mark. Whether this is a psychological barrier or technical figure I am not sure, could someone shed some light on this?

 

[Agentm]

Well today has shown that a bit of resistance has developed at the 80cent mark. Whether this is a psychological barrier or technical figure I am not sure, could someone shed some light on this?

not sure myself..

i took a view the very positive broker announcements claiming $2 prices had no impact, and it seems to have reached a plateau

i have taken profit in aut and maybe moved early or maybe not. hard to call but i think that capital is now resting in the adi share with the expectation the .60 valuation may one day deliver a higher bid by awe. which means fully pocketing the cash should that happen.. so i have a guarantee of a total return..


anyone think the jvp partners could get real jittery if the awe directors do not announce any reply other than keep the current bid on to the end and simply allow the bid go? will the likes of aut and eka just keep on rising and defy the market trends? might be good to buy in later on if awe run this thing out..

many futures on the horizon imho


will this global volatility keep on happening for weeks or months more and have zero impact on aut ?

how far can these small caps move when you see the likes of awe with pretty good assets get smashed week in week out..

interesting days ahead.. will the jvp remain immune from the market jitters?

too fickle for me with aut not even coming close to running hard..

but who knows, if it lights up i can easily move back in a heart beat..

 

[condog]

Agent some sensible points

imo irrespective of global jitters at current scales AUt is adding value daily in substantial amounts. Cant see it slipping to far for too long for any reason imo.

Cap raising at some point in late 2010 or 2011 in your opinion, i dont see a problem. I really dont care if they grab $5 or $30 million as i know itw likely to be only a 5-8c discount and it will be quickly recouped.

To sell out worrying at this stage with the shares most of us have with good gains would give too much to the tax man, more in mst instances then the insignificant effect of a possible??? Cr.

Go for it if its gunna hasten development, bring it on i say. As at $2+ whos gunna care about a few cents dilution or a few cents loss from jitters.

short termers are worried about a CR. Well stuff em i say, focus on the massive unlocked value in this thing and develop it as fast as you can, before some predator makes a low ball offer, and distracts managment from its real job.

Just keep devleoping. whilever its economical and looks like staying economical drill drill drill and frac frac frac.

 

[condog]

In my opinion AUt holders need not be concerned at a CR

Our AMI activity is more limited by ADI, who are spending there cash defending thier company.

A $10M CR at 10c discount dilutes by 7% or 5c post CR

A more likely $5M dilutes by just 3.5% or 2.5c Post CR

A $5M debt structure doesnt dilute at all. The interest at 10% for 2 years Diminishes our return by less then 1% or 0.5c.

So CR is the absolute least of anyones concersn imo. IMO it would be significanlty advantageous at those rates to do so, becaues the benefits of accellerated cash flows and dvelopment would be quickly recovered

Any concerns about 2.5c dilution or 5c dilution on this stock are either very short sighted or traders. And Managment should never consider either in thier plans. Managment should always be focused on holders of 6-9 months or more.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Nice to see AUT close above 80c/share. I hope that 80c/share turns into a solid level of support in the near future.

I'll actually be in the States next week! Perhaps I should duck out to Texas and have a look!

 

[The Brown Bear]

Nice to see AUT close above 80c/share. I hope that 80c/share turns into a solid level of support in the near future.

I'll actually be in the States next week! Perhaps I should duck out to Texas and have a look!

It has had a good run, I would take profits and look for investments elsewhere.

Instead of going to Texas, you should make an investment in vegas instead!!! :

 

[condog]

It has had a good run, I would take profits and look for investments elsewhere.

Instead of going to Texas, you should make an investment in vegas instead!!! :

Brown bear, sorry to rain on your first post. But you cant give blatant unjustified advice. Feel free to express your opinion, but dont word it as advice. And if you want to be listned to state facts or produce some form of evidence for your reasoning.

I will counter that in my opinion. Its had a good run, becasue its got a 10 well programm currently being drilled in one of the best onshore shale plays in the world. Its got an 80% success rate with some very very economic results. In coming days and weeks 5 more wells will start producing.
The last well had IP's over 2000 bocpd. The next 4 are expected to be good. Its expecting a reserves upgrade in July and Kowalick should be fixed in june / july.

its JVP ADI is subject to t takeover offer, which indicated AUT is at very attractive pricing as well.

So yes ther ehas been a very good run for very good reasons. imo the run has just begun. there will be periods of concolidation like the one we have been through and 80c is a point of resistance, this is our 2nd time at 80c, we may just blast through it this time, who knows.

Pattersons have an outdated valuation at 93c, Euroz at $1.02 and Stock analysis have $2upside on it.

Perhaps that justifies my belief. and my contempt for statements as that posted above.

 

[rock86]

It has had a good run, I would take profits and look for investments elsewhere.

Instead of going to Texas, you should make an investment in vegas instead!!! :

Brown bear, sorry to rain on your first post. But you cant give blatant unjustified advice. Feel free to express your opinion, but dont word it as advice. And if you want to be listned to state facts or produce some form of evidence for your reasoning.

Condog, don't think he was giving advice. He's just expressing what he would do. If he said "I think you should take profits..." then that's a different story. However I don't think it's against the rules to express what you would do.

Cheers

 

[condog]

Great announcment out this morning showing Morgan with stable flows over 1300bocpd, easely great to.

Ranch is unloading and connected

Kowalick to be fixed in july as the first of a number of wells in the AMI to be completed in 2010

T2 ready to frac

Bring forward those valuations fokes, we have an accellerated drilling program.

 

[Agentm]

cant understand the aut announcement??

firstly on turnbull 3, from my database

API Number: 42-255-31668
Location: Karnes , Texas
Current Well Type: Active Permit
Status: drilling in progress
Current Lease Name: TURNBULL

Event: Other
Event Date: 05/29/2010 08:00
Event Depth :

Operator (ph): HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY
Well Number: 3

QUESTION ABOUT SETTING CASING. WODERING HOW DEEP HE CAN DRILL BELOW THE BASE OF THE FRESH WATER WITHOUT FILING A RULE 13.

5-28-2010 07:15 DRILLED TO 5850 AND RUNNING WIPER AND CLEANING OUT THE HOLE CASING CREW ON LOCATION AND WAITING ANTICIPATING RUNNING CASING @ 1800 AND SETTING CEMENT @ 2030 OR 2100HR.

the well was at 5850 on the 28th may.. last friday??


aut announcement says this..

With the completion of the Turnbull #2H well operations the rig has now skidded to an adjacent well location on the same drilling pad and is presently preparing to spud the Turnbull #3H well.
Turnbull #3H is the third of three new wells required to be drilled and stimulated under the Hilcorp farmin arrangements at the Longhorn AMI.

i was expecting at least new that the well was somewhere from 5850 feet and beyond

that aside.

turnbull 1 was fraccing as far as i am told by eyewitnesses.. from over a week ago.. but with turnbull 1 i am going by eye witnesses so its not verified.. iwas told rancho frac was all quiet and on a sunday, but ready to flow.. and turnbull 1 was pretty much at full tilt..

maybe what was seen has been misinterpreted..

but the turnbull 3 " is presently preparing to spud the Turnbull #3H well." is very odd indeed


trying to understand the AUT reasoning for not being anywhere close on turnbull 3 and imho if the locals in texas are wrong on what a frac operation looks like then so be it, but i wonder if they are wrong on things..

 

[Sdajii]

Wow, check out the depth on AUT right now! We've hit a record high of 87c, almost a million shares traded, and only 236,000 on offer, with no real resistance point. The resistance at around 80c is gone... we could be in for a bit of a run as the end of the day, and week arrives in a few hours.

 

[estseon]

The AUT announcement was on 26th, which was 25th Texas time. To drill a mile in 3/4 days is going it some but the total drilling times that we've seen include casing and the drilling into the lateral. It looks as though it could tie in.

 

[Ramblin Round]

Who's drilling for them esteon ? Petrohawk has a bit to production and sales turnaround of 20-30 days. I don't know how the hell they do it so quickly, but that is what was reported. It was 40-60 days (which was impressive enough) and then they even dropped that timeframe down.

 

[condog]

Looking at those graphs for drill and frac times in the AUT presentation, they just keep getting quicker with every well.

They are running like a "well oiled" machine.

Agent I trust AUT very much, there has been no recent precedent to doubt them at all. Perhaps your source made a few mistakes.

Looking forward very much to Ranch IP's next week and T1 flow announcment id imagine would accompaniy it.

One has to be extatic with Morgan flow rates at 1300ish bocpd. $2.5M per mth towards well repayments, got to love that. a little over 2 motnhs and its paying other wells off. That compound payment will massively accellerate hilcorp repayments imho.

Hartleys came out with a look through valuation on AUT of $1 when comparing it to the T/O price for ADI.

87c is a nice overdue close, but im thinking next week will see many new highs imo. The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo. Combine that with Rancho Ip's, Turnbull flow and possibly two turnbulls flowing, we could se a big week or two for AUt.

 

[Agentm]

Looking at those graphs for drill and frac times in the AUT presentation, they just keep getting quicker with every well.

They are running like a "well oiled" machine.

Agent I trust AUT very much, there has been no recent precedent to doubt them at all. Perhaps your source made a few mistakes.

Looking forward very much to Ranch IP's next week and T1 flow announcment id imagine would accompaniy it.

One has to be extatic with Morgan flow rates at 1300ish bocpd. $2.5M per mth towards well repayments, got to love that. a little over 2 motnhs and its paying other wells off. That compound payment will massively accellerate hilcorp repayments imho.

Hartleys came out with a look through valuation on AUT of $1 when comparing it to the T/O price for ADI.

87c is a nice overdue close, but im thinking next week will see many new highs imo. The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo. Combine that with Rancho Ip's, Turnbull flow and possibly two turnbulls flowing, we could se a big week or two for AUt.

hey condog.. up early and asking for a chat with me i see..

happy to reply

i sorta gotup early b4 a huge ride this cold morning.. but have to say i basically chocked on my wheetbix..

lets begin with a replay to this post of yours..

well completion times..

yes they have improved significantly, although some recent ones were a tad longer than i expected. but by an large its evident hilcorp have it nailed..

re your trust of aut.. your trust makes for me being very disconcerted.. i check every announcement made by the jvp, and critically i discount them as being accurate and correct until it matches up with my data which is 100% accurate. and thus far there is grave concern by me solely for the accuracy of the last aut longhorn announcement..

when it gets down to it, if your comments on how accurate the sources are and whether what they see is what is going down.. that aspect i have already addressed in my post.. does someone who has seen frac after frac occur around their ranch really know what a frac looks like? time will tell.


with regard to the well event on turnbull 3.. 100% accurate and beyond doubt that the well was at 5850 feet last friday the 28th may.. given it takes some 19 days to drill a well for hilcorp.. imho the well would be drilling a lateral atm, and not waiting to spud as the announcement clearly states.

who do i trust? generally my research over anything. and i invest accordingly. so if things are not correct, and they clearly are not.. then thats the right signal to withdraw in a volatile market..

re the comments on morgan.. yes the well is brilliant, i am eager as anything to see how the 90 day flow rates translates. but thus far the well is as i said b4, one of the biggest producing wells in texas for a number of days..

yes hartleys have put that price target down in the absence of any dilution..

ok this is the where you really lost it for me. the weetbix choking section perhaps... i have to question this comment.. and where your data and graphs are coming from..

"87c is a nice overdue close, but im thinking next week will see many new highs imo. The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo. "

.87 was extraordinary.. i sure never expected it..

next week will see many new highs.. hmmmm .. that one was a beauty.. you and i are at opposite poles on this, i think aut was on a plateau at about .70 - .80 the run yesterday was for me an indication of some pretty remarkable buying.. i was not able to understand what the catalyst was (and i am being sacrastic ) my view is that the current market is extremely volatile.. infact its beyond belief how volatile it is atm..

RE "The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve, "

OK condog.. have to ask what graphs your using and whether you can post one up for me?

RE : "and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo"

can you post up some graphs on that and again, i really thing you need to check what data your looking and whether these comment you made are indeed accurate in any way.. and how you weigh the risk in these markets..

just as an indication, my data tells me the this, and keep in mind this was by and large done and dusted after your comment..

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks plunged, sending benchmark U.S. indexes to four-month lows, commodities slid and Treasuries rallied as lower-than-forecast American job growth and a widening government debt crisis fueled concern the global economic recovery will slow. Hungary’s currency, equities and bonds plummeted.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 3.4 percent to 1,064.88 at 4 p.m. in New York, with only three stocks in the gauge rising. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 10,000 and both measures closed at the lowest levels since Feb. 8. Oil fell 4.2 percent to near $71.51 a barrel, while tin sank 9.5 percent to lead losses in metals. Ten-year Treasury yields decreased 17 basis points to 3.2 percent. The euro slid below $1.20 for the first time since March 2006 and the yen climbed against 16 major counterparts. The forint tumbled to an almost 15-month low against the dollar on concern Hungary may default.


TIA

 

[condog]

Thanks Agent for a detailed response and happy do differ. Good to seee your having a healthy breakfast.

My post wa prior to US employment figures coming out. But none the less. imo EU is still a big mess, but temporarily being dealt with. The US is / was recovering , although employment data following my post does not sit well.

China is my concern with a huge drop in electricity dmenad, which is a direct measure of industrial production. So far we have seen the corresponding drop in the AUD but not in commodity prices yet.

The world has not yet found on an appropriate scale a replacement for light sweet crude and as a result of the BP spill 2015 and 2018 crude futers have doubled in price from $7 to $15+ per gallon. Whilst higher then targeted production form OPEC has protected the short term oil prices from rising, the legislative risks and responses from the Obama govt indicate a risk to offshore drilling. Also world all demand is exceeding production from traditional sources. As a result the windo of time we are heading into looks very bullish on oil. The costs of recovering from tar sands are significnatly above $75bo andaprt form short term lows from short term factors we will see in my opion oil at very good prices going forward. In the immediate term we could see it slip to $60 but this will be short lived and temporary in my opinion as all oil futers have risen dramatically since the BP spill.

Its not htat BP spill is big in terms of influence on price, its the legislative risk to off shore rigs in the gulf of mexico that is huge , and in the view of oil traders will cause significantly increased safety and emergency response costs. Time will tell.

That combination in my opinion combined with a softer aUD bodes well for us earning USD in Aust.

My graph deliberately left small, for undisclosed reason, but you can clearly see early, but certainly no certain signs of a change. The averages are converging and if the trend continues it will bescome a strong buy signal. Its not a buy signal yet, but as you see its improving as the averages are separting.


Please dont choke on your morning tea agent.
Feel free to disagree, its a forum for discussion after all and discussion by definition has two opposing views. After all i thought your move out of AUT was bizarre, ive been proven right "so far". Which i guess proves your not right all the time.

On the issue of your sources, they have been fantasticlly reliable and i am not questioning thier integrity, but i also have no reason to question AUT. Imo whilst some announcments have proved slightly delayed, etc they have been encouragingly credible since Dec 09.

Certainly ive got no concerns over AUT, but given your currently not holding , i do question your sudden turn from "AUT " as a no brainer to what ever your stance is right now? Im a little confused and stunned by your recent changes in sentiment.

 

[condog]

No sign of Agent perhaps he did choke on his morning tea in response to the above post after all. RIP Agent.