Australian Petrol Prices

I've always wanted to do a comparison of Australian Petrol prices against the Exchange rate and Crude Oil prices as I had always believed we weren't getting a fair deal. I had some spare time today so here it is.

With a substantial increase in the AUD v's US of the last several years - I had perceived that Petrol prices should have been relatively flat and that the oil companies were profiting from the changes in the exchange rate and the increasing cost of crude oil.

First point to note is this analysis does not investigate why the price of crude oil has been increasing since 2002 (although it's now down to under US$40 a barrel), this analysis simply looks at what we are paying at the pump and compares it with changes in Exchange rate and crude oil prices.

The key data series on the chart below is the Crude Oil price in AUD (which takes into account the Exchange Rate) and the Petrol Price (Perth Monthly Average). I was surprised when all the data was assembled. The red arrows show that the petrol prices and the Crude Oil price (in AUD) were nearly the same at the start of 2001 and 2004 whilst there was almost US$10 increase in crude oil (from US$25.77 to US$34.25).

The data appears to correlate quite well with the prevailing AUD Exchange rate and this has satisfied my curiosity on whether the petrol consumers were getting a good deal.

In addition, the % price change in Petrol v's crude oil was quite interesting - whilst Crude oil increased in price by 206% between Jan 01 to Jun 08, Petrol only increased by 85%.

% Change In Price Jan-01 Jun-08 % change
Petrol (AU cents) 84.97 157.75 85.65%
Crude Oil (AUD) 46.425 142.082 206.05%

So after looking at the facts, I'm a little more satisfied that the Australian prices are reasonably fair.

The 'smart' petrol money still buys on the Tuesday when prices seem to be the lowest

What the! Is it just me or did the petrol price just jump over 15c a litre. I was paying 106 but last Thursday jumped to 122!

Looks like the hedge funds have pre-empted the second half recovery by pre-empting a renewed demand for oil which is pre-empting the second half global recovery which is pre-empting things getting better, which is pre-empting US banks becoming un-insolvent and people starting to consume again!

The recovery snuffed out before it even begins because of commodity price inflation?

Phew, a lot of things hanging by assumptions and hope?

Uncle Festivus said:

What the! Is it just me or did the petrol price just jump over 15c a litre. I was paying 106 but last Thursday jumped to 122!

Looks like the hedge funds have pre-empted the second half recovery by pre-empting a renewed demand for oil which is pre-empting the second half global recovery which is pre-empting things getting better, which is pre-empting US banks becoming un-insolvent and people starting to consume again!

The recovery snuffed out before it even begins because of commodity price inflation?

Phew, a lot of things hanging by assumptions and hope?

Click to expand...

Yup.

In Wodonga standard unleaded at my local robber-baron BP went from 117.9 last Wed to 132.9 on Thu!

2 days later it was back to 122.9....

Cop that, future interest rates....

Aussiejeff said:

Yup.

In Wodonga standard unleaded at my local robber-baron BP went from 117.9 last Wed to 132.9 on Thu!

2 days later it was back to 122.9....

Cop that, future interest rates....

Click to expand...

has the price of crude fluctuated that much recently?

jono1887 said:

has the price of crude fluctuated that much recently?

Click to expand...

No, but supply and demand for petrol has - you know the factors that actually determine price.

freddy2 said:

No, but supply and demand for petrol has - you know the factors that actually determine price.

Click to expand...

LOL - speculators determine prices these days? There is an oil glut for supply and falling consumption for demand? They are pricing in a global recovery before the fact?

Let's see how we're doing on the petrol prices since the AUD has been stronger than the USD....

Want to make an extra $225M a month?

The chart below compares monthly OIL in AUD v's Syd Metro Petrol prices. The 'Y' axis are stretched so to allow an overlay of both prices.

Whilst the petrol price follows the OIL price reasonably closely you will notice that the syd petrol price spikes at a greater gradient v's the oil price on a number of occasions.

What does this mean?

Well, if you assume a 1600 Mega litre consumption per month for all of Australia, then in Feb 2009, petrol prices jumped ahead by 14 cents whilst the AUD oil price remained flat. This extra 14 cents is roughly calculated to be $225M per month in additional company profits.

Whenever the petrol price line sits above the oil price, each 1c of petrol is roughly equivalent to $16M of profits per month. Hence the petrol companies prices tends to always be ahead of the AUD oil price.

Whilst the price of singapore crude does affect our petrol prices, it is controlled by woolworths and coles who own the market and can move prices to where they want or need and substitute income from other sources. if you have an independant site near you dont blame him for prices, he has little or no control and will often be paying more than the majors sell for.

Price of ULP in Wodonga has rocketed from 144.9 on Fri (diesel 153.9) to 155.9 today (diesel 153.9) - a leap of +11c. Note how diesel has not changed.

Erm... massive market manipulation happening again?

I thought it was just a local thing, since today is a public holiday down here (the typical "let's put prices up on a long weekend" trick), but apparently not.

One thing that does come to mind however, is that petrol / diesel prices today aren't much different from what they were 5 years ago. We're probably due for a decent price hike sooner or later I'd think.

It was great news the other week, where Mercedes, Ford and Nissan are getting together. They are going to have a viable fuel cell vehicle on the market in 5 years.
Now that will be a giant step forward.

https://www.daimler.com/technology-and-innovation/drive-technologies/fuel-cell

If or I should say when, this technology matures, the middle east is in a lot of trouble.

Aussiejeff said:

Price of ULP in Wodonga has rocketed from 144.9 on Fri (diesel 153.9) to 155.9 today (diesel 153.9) - a leap of +11c. Note how diesel has not changed.

Erm... massive market manipulation happening again?

Click to expand...

Just drove back from Queensland to the Central Coast NSW. One thing I can never work out is the massive price variations from one town to another. Today I bought E10 in the United servo in Grafton for 131.9c. In Coffs Harbour about 70 kms down the road it ranged up to 154.9c for E10. How is it certain towns can sell for 1.31c and in others 1.54? There's got to be manipulation going on somewhere. How the hell can there be so much difference in neighbouring towns? The price I paid today in Grafton was cheaper than the Coles Express price even if I deduct a voucher worth 18c off a litre. Those Coles vouchers seem to be a bit of con, what's going on.

I bought E10 petrol today on the Central Coast for 94c a liter, further up the coast about 20 kms away the price from the same chain was 1.21c, how can it be so different?

Which app are you nice people using? I tried "Fuel Map' but it is not updated sometimes for 10 or 12 days so it's pretty much out of date. The "Petrol Spy" App is the same, out of date.

I thought the public were going to get real time petrol price comparisons, similar to what petrol companies get.

Any good Apps out there?

At last the new app is going live. You will be able to check which petrol station is the cheapest before you head off to fill your tank and potentially save several $$$$$$ by doing so.

The Fuel Check website is now live: https://www.fuelcheck.nsw.gov.au/app

---
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-19/fuel-check-website-goes-live-for-nsw-drivers/7766224

Motorists are now able to check fuel prices at every service station in New South Wales, in real-time.

"For the very first time you'll be able to access information about fuel prices for service stations near you and get the very best bargain for your dollar."

Service stations are now required by law to notify the government every time they change their price.
---

I've never really understood the weekly price cycle that seems to occur in many parts of Australia. Price jumps up and down practically every day.

At least down here in Tas it's pretty constant. Price goes up or down and stays there for however long (weeks) until the next change. None of this "fill up on day x and save a fortune" stuff seems to happen around here.

That said, prices are pretty damn high on this island compared to the other side of Bass Strait anyway so we're not actually gaining anything but at least it's straightforward.

Price at the moment is about 119.9 cents for ULP 91 (no ethanol) without any discounts and about the same for diesel. E10 (95 RON) is about 118.9. Not sure of the exact price for PULP 95 but it's 12x.9 and for 98 it's 13x.9. But since most people would have either a Coles / Woolies docket or an RACT card (6 cents discount at United) the real price for most will be a bit lower in practice.

One thing I've noticed is that LPG seems to be disappearing. A few servos seem to have taken it out recently and I noticed that a recently redeveloped site doesn't have it. With the price over 80 cents these days and taxis moving to hybrids (petrol) or to diesel vehicles the market for automotive LPG would be declining I assume.