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Australian Job Losses

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This is only the beginning.

As a prediction, this time next year the unemployement rate in Australia will be the highest in recorded history, even greater than the 1929-1939 depression years.
 
Auslad said:
This is only the beginning.

As a prediction, this time next year the unemployement rate in Australia will be the highest in recorded history, even greater than the 1929-1939 depression years.
Click to expand...
Quite possible.
Auslad, to what do you attribute the current and impending increasing unemployment rate?
 
Employment figures out. 27k jobs lost last month.

We all know that the unemployment rate is also skewed as anyone working >3hrs a week is calssified as employed
 
joea said:
Some stats. from Roy Morgan.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4803/

joea
Click to expand...
That's interesting. Extract:
Within the Australian workforce (12,178,000 people either employed or looking for work) ”” 2.12 million or 17.4% are unemployed or underemployed in April ”” June 2012.

Combing the three months (April ”” June 2012) shows the following:

Analysis by State shows:

* Tasmania (12.2%) clearly has the highest unemployment of any State, followed by New South Wales (9.7%); Victoria (9.0%); South Australia (8.9%) while the large mining States of Queensland (8.6%) and Western Australia (7.8%) have the lowest.

* The highest underemployment by State is Queensland (8.7%) ahead of Victoria & Tasmania (both 8.6%); New South Wales (8.1%); Western Australia (8.0%) and South Australia (7.9%).

* Overall unemployment & underemployment is clearly highest in Tasmania (20.8%) followed by New South Wales (17.8%); Victoria (17.6%); Queensland (17.3%); South Australia (16.8%) while WA (15.8%) has the lowest.
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So how does the government get its frequently quoted unemployment figure of 5 point something percent?
What am I missing?
 
Julia said:
That's interesting. Extract:

So how does the government get its frequently quoted unemployment figure of 5 point something percent?
What am I missing?
Click to expand...

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘underemployed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews covering April ”” June 2012 with 13,308 Australians aged 14 and over.

*The ‘underemployed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)
Click to expand...

Most probably just different definition of the terms, plus difference in the survey methods.

E.g. With face to face interviews you need to have candidates who are readily available to be interviewed - does that skew the employment rate because those who are busy working are more likely to decline an interview?

E.g. Underemployment = consultants looking for more work. Unless the said consultant is fully flatout, I'd say most would say they'd prefer more work!
 
Julia said:
That's interesting. Extract:


So how does the government get its frequently quoted unemployment figure of 5 point something percent?
What am I missing?
Click to expand...

Julia.
If a person is unemployed but not currently actively looking for a job, then the ABS
does not put you on the unemployment list.
The ABS also equate a part time job to a full time job.
So if 10,000 full time jobs go and 10,000 part time jobs appear, then there is no
change.
It just a lovely word of statistics we live in.

joea
 
joea said:
Julia.
If a person is unemployed but not currently actively looking for a job, then the ABS
does not put you on the unemployment list.
The ABS also equate a part time job to a full time job.
So if 10,000 full time jobs go and 10,000 part time jobs appear, then there is no
change.
It just a lovely word of statistics we live in.

joea
Click to expand...

Abs came out the other week stting they had missed the mark on unemployment by quite a large amount in 2010/11 I think it was. The methods used to calculate it appear to be rather flawed, and quite a few seem to be aware of the fact. So why exactly do they do it? There must be some reason they do things the way they do? Or is it simply because they are intentionally trying to make the figures look better? If they know it's not working, and the methods of calculating are absurd then why not change it so it's practical, and is a true reflection of economy?

I just don't get it.
 
young-gun said:
Abs came out the other week stting they had missed the mark on unemployment by quite a large amount in 2010/11 I think it was. The methods used to calculate it appear to be rather flawed, and quite a few seem to be aware of the fact. So why exactly do they do it? There must be some reason they do things the way they do? Or is it simply because they are intentionally trying to make the figures look better? If they know it's not working, and the methods of calculating are absurd then why not change it so it's practical, and is a true reflection of economy?

I just don't get it.
Click to expand...

young-gun
I do not get it either.
I chased up the local MP to suggest the coalition should be saying the figures are
not correct.
I am just about sure his coffee was getting cold.
He said "statistics can be made to do what you want".
I contacted the media to "jump on it". No response.
I get Liberal newsletters. I keep sending back a message "what are you telling me for! Take control. roll the labor
no hopers".
I have told then I will contribute when they start listening to the voter.
Well it has not "pi**ed" them off much, because I am still on the list.

joea
 
joea said:
young-gun
I do not get it either.
I chased up the local MP to suggest the coalition should be saying the figures are
not correct.
I am just about sure his coffee was getting cold.
He said "statistics can be made to do what you want".
I contacted the media to "jump on it". No response.
I get Liberal newsletters. I keep sending back a message "what are you telling me for! Take control. roll the labor
no hopers".
I have told then I will contribute when they start listening to the voter.
Well it has not "pi**ed" them off much, because I am still on the list.

joea
Click to expand...

Decades ago, friends of ours worked in the unemployment benefit office in WA. There would be periodic requests to convert as many unemployed to sickness benefit etc as they could. Then the WA Govt would state how unemployment had dropped. I have been suspicious of the umbers spouted ever since.
 
Both parties new to falsify any figure as they can't do any thing about them.
That's why voting won't Liberal, The New Beaut Green and gold party won't change any thing.
 
So far as statistics (for anything) are concerned, I apply the "sanity test" prior to believing them.

Nothing I see around me leads me to believe that unemployment is at 5% or anything close to that. 15% I could believe, maybe even 10% at a stretch, but not the "official" figures.

If unemployment were as low as government likes to claim then we wouldn't have apprentices being laid off prior to completion and there wouldn't be large numbers of people applying for entry level jobs in factories or outdoor labouring jobs etc.:2twocents
 
When they start to publish the employment figure you will know times are hard.
 
I saw an add for Philippine welders $42K PA, good money for here, job was location drive along Nullabor to Perth for 6 hrs turn right drive for another 5 hrs... looks like right in Gina's back yard.
 
johenmo said:
Decades ago, friends of ours worked in the unemployment benefit office in WA. There would be periodic requests to convert as many unemployed to sickness benefit etc as they could. Then the WA Govt would state how unemployment had dropped. I have been suspicious of the umbers spouted ever since.
Click to expand...
Yes. The same principle led to the blow out of people on Disability Support Pensions. Essentially anyone over a particular age who had been unemployed for more than six or twelve months, was encouraged to apply for the DSP.

The whole set up seems lacking in transparency and integrity.
How unsurprising.:(
 
IFocus said:
Abbott will sort that out when he culls conditions and creates uncertainty in employment.
Click to expand...

You must be referring to when he is going to give employers SOME of their rights back.

Nothing worse than seeing employers afraid to hire because IR laws are so heavily skewed against them
 
Klogg said:
You must be referring to when he is going to give employers SOME of their rights back.

Nothing worse than seeing employers afraid to hire because IR laws are so heavily skewed against them
Click to expand...

+1
joea
 
Any further political posts will be removed, we have enough threads about politics for policies to be discussed there.

Back on topic:
MYER announced yesterday they are cutting 100 jobs
 

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