AUDJPY

[disarray]

the AUD is looking pretty weak. the 93 range has some serious support so if it falls through there its a very long drop.

 

[Kauri]

Taken a long posi on AUDJPY... PestPac has just tabled 3 Uradashis worth 70 odd bill. and there are more players bringing some out soon, it may help underpin her... or not..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Taken a long posi on AUDJPY... PestPac has just tabled 3 Uradashis worth 70 odd bill. and there are more players bringing some out soon, it may help underpin her... or not..
Cheers
..........Kauri

and slipped the stop up to B/E .... just in case our northern cousins play silly baggers like they did yesterday...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

looking interesting...
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

looking interesting...
Cheers
..........Kauri

a tri. became a ledge.. but she still went as expected..
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[BentRod]

Seems like AUDJPY is at a critical level on the Dailies.

Nice place for Buy with position reverse stops actually.

 

[BentRod]

seems like some strong resistance around that trendline.

All other JPY crossed getting creamed and this one just hangs in there?

looks like it has broken through again- see if I can get stopped out for a third time

Short from 89.37

 

[BentRod]

5th time lucky.

 

[BentRod]

fhsdkjfhlkhsdfks

Stopped out of this one at breakeven this morning.:

Is proving quite hard to get set for a longer term position.

 

[disarray]

what time frame do you mean by "longer term position"?

 

[Kauri]

As of yesterday, net currency longs held by these players fell precipitously from the week prior, and dealers suggest more sales to come if judging by the price action today and anecdotal evidence of sales from this bloc. Medium to longer-term players look to be paring down positions, and more shorter-term players look to be preferring to trade JPY from the long side, a departure from past experience.
As of yesterday, net long USD/JPY positions were unchanged at 72.1% over the week but EUR/JPY was down to 67.1% from 83.9%. GBP/JPY longs fell to 70.3% from 83.3%, AUD/JPY to 78.3% from 92.4% and NZD/JPY to 87.3% from 90.3%. The relative lack of downside in NZD/JPY is attributed to NZD/JPY having already fallen quite a bit and much of the negative news on NZ already discounted. The market is also more illiquid than other JPY pairs, and some players seem content still to ride out the storm. More AUD/JPY position paring is eyed however and sentiment towards EUR and GBP continue to drop.

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[BentRod]

what time frame do you mean by "longer term position"?

Good question.
I don't really know, I guess I'm thinking months but then again, I would never close out a winning position.

If you have a look on the Dailies from 97-2000, that is the sort of move I want to capture.

Work out the return on that with a 20 pip stop

If the carry unwinds then maybe there is potential for this type of move?

The hard part is getting a position that sticks.

 

[Kauri]

a touch slow adding here... trying to do too much at once... was ideally looking to get on on the break of the recent low...

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[BentRod]

Nice one Kauri.

 

[BentRod]

Counter trend for a quickie.

 

[BentRod]

stop to BE.

 

[BentRod]

I've left this one open after that reversal in US Stocks last night.

Will see how this goes tonight.
Must admit, I'm tempted to close it out since it is fluffing around a bit....seems to have formed a head and shoulder type formation on 5min chart.

 

[Kauri]

Just an idle thought... not a call...

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[disarray]

yeah looks to be building a base at 81. the chart says sideways then down again to me but its been a dramatic fall so i've setup for a long bounce to 83ish and stacks on shorts on a break down through 81.

i read from a poster here (can't remember the name) about the 4 hour cycles he sees in the forex market and i'm noticing a similar thing, so maybe base building until around 2pm before a move.

i love this game

 

[Kauri]

may not yet form a coily... or a ledge... or a double bottom.... butt.. worriesome though that these apparent desc. coilies I find often become a reversal potteen... I'm keeping the stop wide and taking a punt on a continuation,,, I tink..
Cheers
..........Kauri