AUDJPY

[arco]

On another matter, have you ever seen the price cross the kumo so many times recently Arco? No time to post, but suffice to say we are seeing some serious coiling action here.

Cheers,


CanOz

Hi CanOz

Yes lower time-frames are seeing the plot+Chikou moving back and forth through Kumo with no distinct signal.

4hr is slightly more stable, with the action still trapped under the Kumo (bearish for now until all elements signal opposite)

rgds - arco

 

[Whiskers]

Have fun with the practice account buddy.I was looking at various forex brokers and platforms and found this line highlighted in the extract below.Anonymous trading allays any doubt about stop hunters.Though the big hitters would be more likely targets than minor league players.



no stop hunters ... gotta love their honesty.

Yeah, no fun. But I'll sort it out before I go to real cash.

Hi Whiskers.

Nice start on trading.

I'm not the worlds best wave counter but as I remember

Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, except in diagonal triangles and sometimes in wave 1 or A waves, but never in a third wave.

rgds - arco

Absolutely right arco... the 1 and 2 had gone off the screen and me gettin a bit weary just kept on counting 3, 4 ... but when my profit started gettin eaten up at a rate of knots I closed out and went to bed.

Realised later it wasn't right, shoulda stopped at three... but I'm damned if I know what to make of the minor and intermediate counts now.

 

[arco]

Hi Whiskers

Can be frustrating at times.....but as I mentioned yesterday.........

................action still trapped under the Kumo (bearish for now until all elements signal opposite)

Large fall of circa 250 pips since then.

I post a chart later when I have a moment

rgds - arco

 

[Whiskers]

Hi Whiskers

Can be frustrating at times.....but as I mentioned yesterday.........

................action still trapped under the Kumo (bearish for now until all elements signal opposite)

Large fall of circa 250 pips since then.

I post a chart later when I have a moment

rgds - arco

Yeah, I have to agree for now... although the 5, 15 and 60 min (this chart is the 60min) seem to be showing a possible bottoming out and turn in momentum short of taking out my yellow 2 on the daily.

Was doing much better workin the 5 min, taking cues from the 15 and 60 min and clipping the swings... every minute or few, pretty much by feel, like 'driving buy the seat of yer pants' as good drivers say.

 

[arco]

.
Heres the 4H chart......

rgds - arco

 

[CanOz]

The Ichimoku is at it again throwing out some signals on pullbacks....and i'm buying them once confirmed!

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[arco]

.
Heres the 4H chart......

rgds - arco

The reaction off the Kumo gave a nice southern ride with a max of circa 570 pips (see previous chart).

PA back to test the Kumo again which needs to be broken to give the full IKH signal on H4. So its possible we could see some rejection coming in here.

GTA - arco

 

[arco]

.

............................ its possible we could see some rejection coming in here.

GTA - arco

Bearish Engulf off Kumo sealed the deal.........+115 pips

GTA - arco

 

[Indie]

I'm shorting the YEN against AUD/CAD/CHF. Looks like this might have some legs after intervention threats by the BOJ.

 

[BentRod]

after intervention threats by the BOJ.

Is that what it was?

Big impulsive moves on all the Yen pairs.

4h chart.

 

[Indie]

Is that what it was?

Big impulsive moves on all the Yen pairs.

4h chart.

I guess so. Apparently BOJ will join in once a bit of momentum has set in against the YEN, so if that's how it plays this should have some legs. We'll see.

 

[sinner]

Japanese economist on the squawk box today saying he expects JPY to appreciate to 70!

Remember, Bloomberg predicted BoJ powerless to stop the slide from 100s to 90 as the carry trade unwinds and we are already at 87!

 

[doctorj]

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan warned currency markets on Thursday of possible intervention to stem the yen's rise after it hit a 13-year high against the dollar, adding to pressure on the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates to protect an export-dependent economy already in recession.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4BH3ON20081218

 

[BentRod]

Clear rejection with AUDJPY

USDJPY seems to be holding up better.

 

[fapturbo]

Potential Inverted H&S on daily chart. Neckline could be breaking and making a run up.

 

[Ato]

Am I allowed to ask what people think is likely to happen with the AUD <-> JPY? I want the AUD to get stronger and have the exchange rate go back to 100 yen to the dollar (or more), as I have money I want to bring back to Japan. Is that likely to happen in the near future?

 

[Tradesurfer]

For any of the carry trades, generally they tend to mirror the overall markets. For the aussie dollar to continue trending higher, a lot of traders are wanting the central bank to raise interest rates. Since JPY has had essentially zero rates and not much sign of raising, traders will want to see that interest rate differential get larger making it more of an incentive to buy aud and sell jpy.

For now though the trend is up on a shorter to intermediate basis. Since I am a trend trader I don't make predictions though- just read and react.

Overall markets good, Aud central banks start to raise rates--could keep the trend going.

 

[Ato]

Cheers TS. Fingers crossed for a rate rise in Oz then >_>

 

[LRG]

all,

start to watch this one again now. commodities are up aud up jpy heading down.

broke 80 on fri - maybe heading bacl towards 100 now?

the trend is breaking out possibly???

 

[Ato]

I dont pretend to know much about forex, but rates up and more on the way apparently; commodities up; strong job growth; generally strong economy - all in Oz.

Japan is going down with the US dollar, but more because they want to kind of peg their currency to it for export purposes. Not necessarily because it is weakening against the Oz dollar. I guess it depends how long they want to let it fall with the US. Plus the new government keeps making contradictory noises to let it weaken and let it strengthen.

Because of the above, I dunno if it's going to get to 100+ again for a while, but I expect the AUD will rise against the yen beyond the 80 it's been sitting at.

As I stated initially though, I dunno much about this, and my comments are based more on fundamentals than actually looking at charts, and these days the direction my study into trading is going makes me put more faith in charts then fundamentals.