AUDJPY

[Indie]

G7 have said Japan is on their own re Yen intervention. No way they can change the course of this on their own. As the Japanese economy contracts expect more carries to unwind and Yen to be repatriated. I'm still bullish Yen for now.

 

[Kauri]

decision time... or more meandering???

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[CanOz]

Watch for the retest soon. I always find these little breaks from consolidation retest the break. This could happen at the session changeover.

Worth noting that the DX has reached its target of 88 (87.98). Could this be the pullback?

Cheers,


COz

 

[Indie]

Interesting times. The bounce is gaining some momentum....I'm holding.

 

[Kauri]

decision time... or more meandering???

Cheers
............Kauri

who nose??

Cheers
............Kauri

P.S
There is no talk of BoJ intervention with the moves up in the JPY crosses solely attributed to the stock market surge this afternoon. That said, there are rumors making the rounds that the surge in the Nikkei this afternoon may have been the result of PKO operations by the Japanese government via government- controlled investment entities.

 

[CanOz]

I really think there has been some interevention in the US markets, theres a small of some action propping things up a bit, don't ya reckon?

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Kauri]

I think the Fx is following the equities... surprise surprise...Japan may have started using the pension funded PKO as well as todays short selling ban to bring about the dramatic turn-around in the Nikkei.... and good ole Aussie is in there buying up supporting the Skip... rumours that the US is getting close to a bank-type bailout of the auto industry... and Iceland has lifted its rates by 6% to 18% but still... for some odd reason... can't attract investors... apart from that no other solid rumours that I can think of to start... yet...
Fx markets are very thin and normal orders seem to be able to move the market amazing amounts... a large GBPJPY sell apparently went through a couple of hours back, spread between a few banks, and she dropped 2.75... and skittled a few other crosses on the way...
for mine todays rally is a minor abberation... the mayhem will fire up again soon as Japan,it seems to me, is reluctant to intervene for the Yen... just a lot of jawboning going on.. I thunk...

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Indie]

Moving shorts ban a week forward is a sign of desperation. But basically agree with you K, fx following equities very closely so if DOW is down tonight Yen should strengthen. Futures forging ahead, not that that's much of a guide nowdays. We shall see.

 

[BentRod]

This could be medium term bottom or a launching pad lower.

If the latter, then the fifties seems like an obvious area in the longer term.

Looks like a touch on the bottom of the channel might be a target after all, even with the current strength of the Aussie Today.

I can't imagine the BOJ not intervening sub 50 though.

After all, a weaker Yen might help to turn equities around and I'm sure AUD and USD central banks wouldn't mind helping out.

Just thoughts, still short here.(bit of pain Today though...:eek3

 

[Indie]

Huge move. I'm staying long.

 

[BentRod]

Your staying long??

Thought you were still short for sub fifty???????

Feeling pretty good about this right now. I'm riding this to the bottom. Sub 50 here we come.

 

[Kauri]

Your staying long??

Thought you were still short for sub fifty???????

Love it bent...
anyways... the old range trade I was playing a whiles back seems to have come back into play.. albeit as resistance.. currently...
Japan short selling ban.. rumours of a Japanese rate cut... hints ECB may cut 50.... stock/bond rebalancing for month end...
Dexia booked a loss of EUR82mn on "excessive" SKK (Slovak) FX positions demonstrates just how exposed Europe is to the meltdown in European EM.

Is the S+P following the Nikkei... or will the Nikkei today follow the S+P..
chicken or egg?? So long as the coilies keep coiling,who cares... I guess

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Indie]

yeah, holding yen that is.

 

[BentRod]

yeah, holding yen that is.

Ah so still short AUDJPY then.

Good to know someone else is feeling the pain too

 

[Kauri]

big sell orders just shy of 100 on the Yen are stalling the crosses currently in thin markets... if they get taken...

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Indie]

No pain yet, just mild concern....over 70 = pain.

Still short Aud/Usd too.

 

[arco]

Morning All

Good entry achieved from lower time-frames.

4H time frame chart shows possible forward Kumo resistance zone in grey.

If this area breaks and the green Chikou passes through the plot then there could be a move higher to test the Kumo. (Circa blue box area)

Between these points we look for bearish rejection. (Kumo is still currently bearish).

rgds - arco

 

[michael_selway]

Ah so still short AUDJPY then.

Good to know someone else is feeling the pain too

Yeah interestign times ahead, although it appears we have been thrugh thsi scenarrio over the last few decade or two

thx

mS

 

[Kauri]

trying out a touch of voodoo..

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[arco]

Morning All

Good entry achieved from lower time-frames.

4H time frame chart shows possible forward Kumo resistance zone in grey.

If this area breaks and the green Chikou passes through the plot then there could be a move higher to test the Kumo. (Circa blue box area)

Between these points we look for bearish rejection. (Kumo is still currently bearish).

rgds - arco

Update

The grey zone caused some initial resistance as expected - at the 2nd attempt a break through was achieved. Green Chikou is almost through the plot, and Kumo (cloud) base looms ahead - it appears AY will visit this area for sure (blue box).

Ichi signal has given circa 560 pips from original entry point so far

arco