AUD

[Kauri]

The AUD/USD was slugged lower during the Lon/US sessions due to a broadly higher USD, a big fall in commodity prices and talk of forced selling of JPY- funded carry trades by hedge funds facing huge redemptions. The AUD does not fare well when global growth concerns are in focus and that is most definitely the case at present. Wall Street saw commodity and transport stocks hit particularly hard, which reflects investor fears that both the US and global economy is heading for a cold winter. The data out of the US lately is only enhancing that view and even the normally uber-hawkish Trichet hinted after the ECB meeting that growth concerns have taken over from inflation concerns, as the main ECB focus.
My AUD crosses (short) are :band


Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[noirua]

US$1 = AU$1.29414, inverse 0.77271. The Aussie is racing backwards at high speed. Commodity exporters must be relieved.

 

[Kauri]

US$1 = AU$1.29414, inverse 0.77271. The Aussie is racing backwards at high speed. Commodity exporters must be relieved.

I guess so... so long as thier export markets are still there in strength ???

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[jaithomson]

I would have thought our (AUS) dollar would rise, as the US is crumbling around itself... any thoughts..?

 

[Nyden]

I would have thought our (AUS) dollar would rise, as the US is crumbling around itself... any thoughts..?

Commodities are collapsing, and it's all Australia has
Not to mention the fact that our interest rates are almost guaranteed to fall next week, as well as the hefty rises in the USD lately.

 

[CanOz]

Commodities are collapsing, and it's all Australia has
Not to mention the fact that our interest rates are almost guaranteed to fall next week, as well as the hefty rises in the USD lately.

Definatly commodity related. If we see a pull back in the dollar we may get a bounce in commodities and the AUD. Honestly i can't fathom whats holding the buck up right now....whatever it is it must be under some pressure.

CanOz

 

[mayk]

D Honestly i can't fathom whats holding the buck up right now....whatever it is it must be under some pressure.

CanOz

I thought it was obvious, the crunch in US dollar, simple supply and demand. The supply has dropped considerably and demand is still there, hence the price rise. Of course add myriads of other factors in too (interest rates, commodities, recession etc.etc.)

700B is not a lot of money in a global context. Almost more than that is wiped off because of the collapse of some financial giants.

CBA in their infinite wisdom, in may (when AUD was hovering around .95) said that AUD will be around 75c near Christmas, how accurate. I thought they were crazy at that time...

 

[Kauri]

bit late in posting... buttt.. where my mornings short stands..

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[noirua]

The Aussie$ seems to be dropping every five minutes now: AU$1.3167 ( inverse 0.7594) to US$1.

 

[Kauri]

bit late in posting... buttt.. where my mornings short stands..

Cheers
............Kauri

and moving along sedately..

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

and moving along sedately..

Cheers
...........Kauri

and still sedately plunging..

Cheers
.............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

and still sedately plunging..

Cheers
.............Kauri

On the S+P the chances for full blown panic, a meltdown of around 10%+ are in the cards this week (or next) - but I'll be ready to buy into what will be the seeds for a Q4 recovery rally - though in the more intermediate term into 2009 there are further lows to come. A near-term bottom will be made by globally coordinated interest rate cuts -- with the ECB the most important factor, as they may slash rates by 100+ bps. and on that note I'm out and off to the scratcher...

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[mayk]

Kauri, why is AUD getting killed. In plain English please...

 

[skyQuake]

Holy crap that was quick!

 

[kitehigh]

Wow,, what a sell off of the AUD, its under 71 cents to the US and also way down on the GBP. Congrats on your shorts Kauri, you must be very happy.
I'm stoked as well as I get paid in GBP.

Does anyone have a guess as to why the big sell down on the AUD?

 

[chops_a_must]

Wow,, what a sell off of the AUD, its under 71 cents to the US and also way down on the GBP. Congrats on your shorts Kauri, you must be very happy.
I'm stoked as well as I get paid in GBP.

Does anyone have a guess as to why the big sell down on the AUD?

My immediate thought is "who is in trouble?"...

 

[Kauri]

Kauri, why is AUD getting killed. In plain English please...

dow/S+P are melting... carry and commodity currencies, in fact most currencies, are following as money moves to safety.... the world realises that because some leaders say there is no recession/depression ( when did a depression get relabelled a recession?? I guess the spinners reckon it doesn't sound as desperate) doesn't necessarily mean it is true... I thunk.
The big 4 FX trading banks globally report that asset managers had been predominantly selling AUD last week, with corporates, being the big buyers, followed by private clients and hedge funds, all in good amounts. Over the Asian and European session it was real money accounts dumping Oz, and the specs getting squeezed out after reinstituting some carry trades on expectations that the bail out package would help confidence.

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Holy crap that was quick!

now you sound like an ex-girlfriend of mine... ..

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

There is no doubt now that the decoupling theory is far off in the distance with money poring back into the US assets and US treasuries. It is becoming quite clear that the regulatory bodies and government"s will need to be addressing these developments once again with a major coordinated effort to stabilize the markets. (co-ordinated cuts?? )..

Cheers ...and goodnight
............Kauri

 

[noirua]

The AUD closed in London at AU$2.4385 to UK£1 and AU$1.4011 to US$1. Probably the biggest reversal by the Aus ever, but the euro faired even worse.

Surprising how the worm turns. I put 25% of my portfolio in US bonds at AU$1.18 and felt sick as the Aussie rose to AU$1.05 to US$1. What now?