AUD

[Wysiwyg]

Just off the top of my head I had 75'ish in the not to distant future too by EW .

I'm thinking the sooner it gets to there the sooner our stocks will pick up.

Well I have gone long with the rest at the moment so any lower `ishes` will have to wait.In a bit late but that is only through hindsight.

 

[BentRod]

Skip seems rather weak Today given the strength of other pairs and Gold??

 

[Kauri]

Will the Japanese go for the deleveraging game... or will the rumours et al... win out???

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Have added to shorts.. a tad early for the break... butt I am feeling adventurous...

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

The AUD is being broadly punished by a sharp rise in investor risk aversion, as fears over the state of the US and global financial sector are reaching extreme levels. Funds and banks are unwinding risk at a furious pace with some doing it voluntarily while others are forced to do so. The VIX index has soared to 31.70 from 25.66 on Friday.
Support for the AUD/USD is found at Friday"s 0.8007 low and a break below 0.8000 will put major support around 0.7900 back into focus. Hourly resistance has formed around 0.8090 and a break above that level is needed to relieve the downward pressure.
The RBA Minutes from the September meeting will be released today. The RBA Statement after the meeting and the appearance before Parliament by RBA Governor Stevens indicated that the RBA is not set to aggressively ease rates, but is still likely to ease again before the end of the year. There should be no surprises from the Minutes, but even if there were, the FX market is clearly focused on external events in determining the fate of the AUD/USD.

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

and for the bright fella who just sent me an email suggesting I was calling easy imaginary trades after the fall... however I would expect everyone to post their trade tickets alongside their ubiquitious ""' glad I went short "xyz" last week.. or not...

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[BentRod]

and for the bright fella who just sent me an email suggesting I was calling easy imaginary trades after the fall...

What the?

Your one of the only ones that posts real time trades on this forum?

 

[caribean]

and for the bright fella who just sent me an email suggesting I was calling easy imaginary trades after the fall... however I would expect everyone to post their trade tickets alongside their ubiquitious ""' glad I went short "xyz" last week.. or not...

Cheers
............Kauri

Seriously Kauri??

 

[Kauri]

Flat out in a new business that was run down (no.. not a bottle shop)... so ducking in and out... but patterns... you gotta lovem... anyone else trade them??

Cheers
........Kauri

 

[Wysiwyg]

Nice pick up on the shorts there.I can`t use patterns on the gaming tables, they`re all 50/50 to me so I don`t focus on them.Darts are same odds.Plus i`m still a novice or worse at times.

 

[Kauri]

U.S funds were big sellers of AUD/USD and AUD/JPY overnight. AUD/USD dipped to a 0.7865 tripping stops below 0.7900 and the cross tested 82.15 lows. Into London and downside pressures return after some brief consolidation. 0.7855 and 81.45 are now the lows respectively. The market more or less ignored a less dovish than expected RBA statement as the focus remains on the U.S banking sector woes. The fall in the Aussie has been contributed to an unwinding of long trades as opposed to fresh shorts being established. Another drop in crude oil prices to $91.85/barrel aided the Aussie decline.
there is a 0.7875 expiry due to roll today at the N.Y cut could help stem further weakness into the North American open

Cheers
.............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

The price swings in the AUD/USD over the past six hours have been breath-taking to say the least. The AUD/USD plummeted to 0.7800 when Wall Street went deep into the red and the risk-aversion theme sent the AUD/JPY to 81.60 from the 84.00 level. The AUD/USD then staged a vicious recovery when the mood turned decidedly USD-negative and investors sold USD and bought gold and oil as safe-have hedges, much as they did during the first half of 2008. The AUD was also getting from support from the recovery of the Dow from over 300 down to "just" 150 down. Wall Street collapsed again in the last hour of trading and the risk-aversion theme took the AUD/USD down to 0.7915 into the close and the selling continued to 0.784o in very early Asia.
The AUD/USD has recovered to 0.7900 in early Asia and traders say that market liquidity is wafer thin. The US credit markets are barely operating and investor fear is at extreme levels. The market is now torn between selling the AUD due to the extremely high risk-aversion and buying the AUD/USD due to the likelihood of a broad USD sell off/gold, oil rise due to expectations that the Fed will print money like there is no tomorrow. ....Expect the volatility to continue, maybe.

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[noirua]

Rate was 0.7909 to the US$1 a few minutes ago.

 

[Kauri]

as stated elsewhere, my trade book is empty currently, butt, is the skip starting to enjoy risks again??
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

as stated elsewhere, my trade book is empty currently, butt, is the skip starting to enjoy risks again??
Cheers
..........Kauri

well what do you know...

and "Foreign central banks are going to rethink about whether they will reinvest in the US. They already got burned with MBS and now buying the Treasury debt that is backing MBS, no thank you."
The US dollar gained in Asia on Friday when reports started to surface late Thursday that such a plan was about to be unveiled. Analysts say that the knee-jerk reaction to buy US dollars was due to the market being short as a hedge against the deepening crisis in the US financial sector. Once the market started to contemplate the inflationary costs of the plan, the US dollar sold off (USD/JPY the exception) and the US dollar index lost close to 2% from the highs seen in Asia earlier on Friday

Cheers
.............Kauri

 

[Trembling Hand]

Skippy is not having a good morning. Must be all the nasty evil foreign hedge funds taking their money back home after their manipulation game has been closed down over the weekend.

Be gone evil shorters :sword:

 

[Kauri]

looks interesting butt nott for me... personally expect a bit of toing and froing until the proposed bailouts affects become clearer...

CXheers
.........Kauri

 

[refined silver]

looks interesting butt nott for me... personally expect a bit of toing and froing until the proposed bailouts affects become clearer...

CXheers
.........Kauri

The bailout is $700b. Thats bigger than the entire health, defence and education budget of the US. So you can see what it'll do to the USD.

The problem is though the OTC derivs mkt unwind thats happening is over one quadrillion dollars. That's 1300 times bigger than the bailout. Thats like trying to stop a locomotive heading down a very steep embankment with a couple of logs. You can only get out the way as fast as possible.

Now how that relates to what the AUD does in the next 24hrs not sure. Sorry

 

[Kauri]

Haven't seen a better time for patterns in FX... one of the ones I have used to add to posies in the Skip.. (another good flag in the USDJPY last night too)... Investor risk aversion has morphed into investor terror after the US Congress failed to pass the Treasury bail out package and heightened the possibility of systemic collapse. The factors that influence the AUD have all turned decidedly AUD-bearish. The VIX index rose to levels not seen since 2002, the Dow had its biggest one-day points fall in history and the CRB index had it biggest one day fall in history. The investor fright is bound to lead to massive repatriation flows by US and Japanese investors and heightening fears over the global growth picture is goi8ng to deter fresh buyers in the AUD as stale longs capitulate.

Cheers
............Kauri

secong grab is the Yen..

 

[Kauri]

The AUD/USD is under heavy pressure this morning and some analysts feel that there is the potential of a much deeper fall. Investor fear is on the rise and given the moves in the credit and equity markets, the FX fear indicators such as the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are holding up reasonably well. The AUD/JPY is still above the mid-September lows despite the heavy fall yesterday. Analysts feel that if investor fear and uncertainty isn"t alleviated by a circuit-breaker very soon we could see some of the carry-trade strategies suffer a similar capitulation event that US equities experienced. Asian equity markets are expected to suffer huge falls today and should keep up the pressure on the AUD/JPY with all eyes on Japanese investors as they head into month and quarter- end.

Cheers
............Kauri