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A bit of a tough call is the AUD/USD today. Ranging around 0.703 & 0.699 mark. Economics looks positive with the Wage Price Index, concensus sounds positive, could go either way today. I'll be looking for a bull breakout today from that range yesterday...
Analysis suggest;

Preference:
The upside prevails as long as 0.6990 is support. Looking for 0.7079.

Alternative scenario:
The downside breakout of 0.6990 would call for 0.6957 and 0.6938.

Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.7012 and 0.7015).

1660688907764.png
 
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AUD/USD breakout yesterday, with analysis suggesting a fall from 0.6990 to 0.6938. Morning price ranging on that mark. I took that position and made sum gains, hoping for further declines today, looking for the 0.6850 price. Should the AUD breakdown further, by passing pivot point 0.6901.
Analysis also suggest a bounce from 0.6901 calling for 0.6991...

1660780794679.png
 
Where to, now for the AUD. It looks to be continuing south today, with a bit of a pattern brewing throughout the week, where you will have a day/night of declines, to be followed by a day of a sideways range, consolidating another day/night of declines. I called a week and a half ago that the AUD when it was at 0.70 range, will soon be sitting in the 0.67 range by the end of the month.
Analysis has reconciled this and called for resistance to be @ 0.6951 pivot point looking for @ 0.6862 if not further south...

1660860341173.png
 
Stockybailz said:
Where to, now for the AUD. It looks to be continuing south today, with a bit of a pattern brewing throughout the week, where you will have a day/night of declines, to be followed by a day of a sideways range, consolidating another day/night of declines. I called a week and a half ago that the AUD when it was at 0.70 range, will soon be sitting in the 0.67 range by the end of the month.
Analysis has reconciled this and called for resistance to be @ 0.6951 pivot point looking for @ 0.6862 if not further south...

View attachment 145634
Click to expand...
Btw, thanks @Stockybailz for your posts.much interested/interesting
 
Stockybailz said:
I called a week and a half ago that the AUD when it was at 0.70 range, will soon be sitting in the 0.67 range by the end of the month.
Analysis has reconciled this and called for resistance to be @ 0.6951 pivot point looking for @ 0.6862 if not further south...
Click to expand...
Comments from Fed officials, and the latest FOMC Minutes, appear to be the catalyst behind the US Dollar's overnight gains.

Yesterday's 48-year low AU unemployment print, combined with local wages and inflation data, could support the Aussie Dollar on expectations for another 50bps rate hike at the RBA's next meeting. However, the Fed's willingness to continue tightening aggressively if needed may result in sustained selling pressure on AUD/USD, and potentially spark a retest of the cluster of lows around 0.6970/50, as you highlighted.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how this pair trades building up to the next RBA and Fed meetings.
 
Still looking at price 0.6901 as a place of support, should the AUD retrace to my earlier suggestion of pivot point 0.6951 where it could go either way but I'm still hoping for the AUD to fall further to 0.6852...?:2twocents
 
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Stockybailz said:
Still looking at price 0.6901 as a place of support, should the AUD retrace to my earlier suggestion of pivot point 0.6951 where it could go either way but I'm still hoping for the AUD to fall further to 0.6852...?:2twocents
Click to expand...

Downside momentum seems to be slowing, if we can hold this level into the weekend may be a push-up to the redline next week.

0.7022 could be a issue though

\1660893108163.png
 
Roller_1 said:
Downside momentum seems to be slowing, if we can hold this level into the weekend may be a push-up to the redline next week.

0.7022 could be a issue though

\View attachment 145666
Click to expand...
I think you might be right, AUD appears well exhausted for further downturn? At the rate its going be lucky to see any significant movement until late in evening if any. I too say the AUD will bounce from here, Monday as you suggested to 0.7022...With the slow momentum, it makes it harder for analysis...
 
Stockybailz said:
I think you might be right, AUD appears well exhausted for further downturn? At the rate its going be lucky to see any significant movement until late in evening if any. I too say the AUD will bounce from here, Monday as you suggested to 0.7022...With the slow momentum, it makes it harder for analysis...
Click to expand...
Well I'll be mistaken AUD still had more in tank to decline some more falling to 0.68725 yesterday after a strenuous day of slow momentum. I encourage it, but a little surprised, thinking the AUD is exhausted after 3 weeks of continues downturn from usual highs of 0.70 range. I don't know whats in store for the AU economic calendar, but nothing can save the AUD now. Looking at the 4h chart the AUD appears locked in for even more downturn. One would expect a bounce from here into the week, meeting FIB support, but who knows. To be honest looking at the daily chart, I would only imagine further downturn, looking for 0.666 range. Symbolic number, definitely looking for 0.675 range.

1660971837704.png
1660971934708.png
 
Stockybailz said:
Well I'll be mistaken AUD still had more in tank to decline some more falling to 0.68725 yesterday after a strenuous day of slow momentum. I encourage it, but a little surprised, thinking the AUD is exhausted after 3 weeks of continues downturn from usual highs of 0.70 range. I don't know whats in store for the AU economic calendar, but nothing can save the AUD now. Looking at the 4h chart the AUD appears locked in for even more downturn. One would expect a bounce from here into the week, meeting FIB support, but who knows. To be honest looking at the daily chart, I would only imagine further downturn, looking for 0.666 range. Symbolic number, definitely looking for 0.675 range.

View attachment 145708
View attachment 145709
Click to expand...
Unfortunately for the AUD/USD it is tied in the Gold/USD battle and the USD seems to be winning out as the most stable currency in a very unstable world, even against Gold.

I only watch the AUD/USD in relation to gold price so I may be biased.

Americans see the ASX as a quarry and imo the AUD will only strengthen convincingly beyond 0.07000 if commodities increase substantially in value AND the USD falls due to other factors.

gg
 
Interesting day for the AUD today?! Could go either way if any. Analyst are saying a rebound towards 0.6931 suggesting 0.6842 as pivot point. I concur but think if the AUD breaks below pivot point there's no stopping it, looking for 0.6793 based on a stronger USD.
For clarity I've put in a pending order @ 0.68806 Thinking that the AUD is exhausted from all the downturn and over due for rise?...

1661122171977.png
 
Tough call for the AUD today? Expectations are for the AUD to rebound following recent downturn these past weeks, is a tough call. Analyst calling for further downturn from resistance @0.6902 looking for @6812. This appears the most probable senario. But personally I fell the USD is getting weaker, accessing the way forward for some upturn above 0.6902 looking for 0.6953. Only time will tell, interesting to see how it pans out?

1661203441880.png
 
Changing my position on the AUD forcast...After siting price testing nearest term resistance of 0.68850 and retracing back down from there, has got me thinking with the slow momentum still in play, I would suggest the AUD to break support 0.68630 for further downturn if not range there and about that area as Analysis would suggest, looking for breakout either way...Imo:2twocents
 
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Stockybailz said:
Changing my position on the AUD forcast...After siting price testing nearest term resistance of 0.68850 and retracing back down from there, has got me thinking with the slow momentum still in play, I would suggest the AUD to break support 0.68630 for further downturn if not range there and about that area as Analysis would suggest, looking for breakout either way...Imo:2twocents
Click to expand...
The pair closed flat yesterday, holding the cluster of support around 0.6870/50 during the last couple of sessions.

From a technical standpoint, this looks to be a nice pivot point, and it will be interesting to see if AUD/USD bounces from here, or breaks lower over the coming days.
 
Having a real rally with the AUD today...Notice price is testing Analyst suggestion of 0.6902. So were to from here will the AUD retrace south from there as suggested looking for 0.6812 or current momentum carry on through looking for 0.6953. Interesting!
 

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