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AUD/USD

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Well the lemmings have changed minds and it seems that what was good yesterday is bad today
Markets trashed..-5% and AUD vs USD down sharply -2%
What can i say.. I won't complain
 
Certainly good news for investor selling the AUD. it's been pushing with a bearish attitude this past month. As the weekly chart becomes ex-spendable. Expect the trend to ease with given pressure during the week. With the H4 tuning key, I look forward to a continuance of AUD/USD selling power. Same can be said for crypto market. I wonder what the connection is there? If any...

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AUD/USD hammered down this morning just after announcement of wage index up 8% I think. An unexpected outcome given the increase to wage index. What that means I don't know? But a do-able given after yesterdays highs, looking exhausted in a overbought AUD market. I'm certainly taking advantage of this as AUD continues to hold a bearish theme for me...

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Stockybailz said:
AUD/USD hammered down this morning just after announcement of wage index up 8% I think. An unexpected outcome given the increase to wage index. What that means I don't know? But a do-able given after yesterdays highs, looking exhausted in a overbought AUD market. I'm certainly taking advantage of this as AUD continues to hold a bearish theme for me...

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I assume that's on expectations the RBA won't go hard next Meeting.
A bigger IR rise expectation wouldn't done that.
 
Stockybailz said:
AUD/USD hammered down this morning just after announcement of wage index up 8% I think. An unexpected outcome given the increase to wage index. What that means I don't know? But a do-able given after yesterdays highs, looking exhausted in a overbought AUD market. I'm certainly taking advantage of this as AUD continues to hold a bearish theme for me...
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The Wage Index for Q1 rose 2.4% YoY and 0.7% QoQ, both of which narrowly missed estimates.

The reason for the sharp pullback in AUD/USD was likely due to the weak print causing traders to ease up on speculation for a larger rate hike by the RBA during their next meeting.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see what this means for the Aussie Dollar in the near-term.
 
CityIndex said:
The Wage Index for Q1 rose 2.4% YoY and 0.7% QoQ, both of which narrowly missed estimates.

The reason for the sharp pullback in AUD/USD was likely due to the weak print causing traders to ease up on speculation for a larger rate hike by the RBA during their next meeting.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see what this means for the Aussie Dollar in the near-term.
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Thanks. Translation: Market thinks .25% again?
 
CityIndex said:
The Wage Index for Q1 rose 2.4% YoY and 0.7% QoQ, both of which narrowly missed estimates.

The reason for the sharp pullback in AUD/USD was likely due to the weak print causing traders to ease up on speculation for a larger rate hike by the RBA during their next meeting.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see what this means for the Aussie Dollar in the near-term.
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Thanks for the heads up! That explains it. I'll have to keep an eye on that web site CityIndex News & Analysis:xyxthumbs
:2twocents
 
CityIndex said:
It seems like it, although it remains to be seen what the other economic data between now and the RBA's June meeting signals.
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Many thanks. And that Site is

www.cityindex.com

Markets - Trade CFDs - City Index Australia

Browse our extensive range of markets. Trade CFD indices, shares, forex, commodities and cryptocurrencies - all with competitive pricing.
www.cityindex.com www.cityindex.com

:p
 
since the RBA REALLY needs to at least catch up to 'official inflation' could i throw in an uninformed 0.4% into the ring ( to bring the official interest rate to 0.75% )

now members here will know 0.75% ( or less ) will actually do squat to tame inflation by itself , but the SHOCK might cause a ripple in investor sentiment and start some serious risk reduction .

after all jaw-boning and mind-games are all the RBA have really got to play with ( i doubt they have the courage of , say , Russia or Turkey with multiple percentage jumps when needed recently )
 
With all that been said? i would expect the AUD to decline for the rest of day and week for that matter! Thinking late into the week and early next week, when all the dust settles. The AUD will regain confidence in the short term and set its sites higher in the long term. Maybe, with the way things are going. But knowing my luck not likely?
 
Unemployment data to be released today. An expected decline of it current rate of 4%. This should in turn boost the confidence of the AUD. As it seemed to of started this morning on highs on a 30m basis. But despite these overheads, the AUD still looks bearish to me and as I've been saying, it should continue on that theme. Anyone else got over sight on the AUD/USD...
Stockybailz said:
With all that been said? i would expect the AUD to decline for the rest of day and week for that matter! Thinking late into the week and early next week, when all the dust settles. The AUD will regain confidence in the short term and set its sites higher in the long term. Maybe, with the way things are going. But knowing my luck not likely?
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As outlined in my previous post from the 29th May it appears we are moving in line with the Forecast indicating counter trend Top for the 7th June . If this turns out to be Top main trend should be down till the X June where main Low is indicated . A minor reversal is indicated on the X June so if we get a small rally into this point we can enter short and pyramid our position down into X if trend is moving in the projected direction . The previous Cycle ran down approx 4.79% so once the 7th June Top comes in we can project this percentage down which will give us a price measure to monitor .
The highlighted box measures 29 days up and the projected time period into the 7th June Top = 26 days. I have projected the two ranges up from the 12th May Low which may be handy reference points as we move into the first target date however the second extension is a bit far off for the 7th June but we will make note of it for future reference . There are two important price levels to watch which are 7342 or 180 Deg and 7372 or 90 Deg . These two points are quite close together and mark an important price zone . The second chart is a previous Forecast that was posted on my twitter account on the 30th March calling Top for the 6th April which was one day off the Top with trend down till the 29th April . Actual Top came in on the 5th April and main trend was down till the 2nd May one day past the 29th forecast date culminating in a large price spike before trending lower . The third Chart is a Curve indicating Top into the 7th June and from that point all of the dates are covered to avoid copying .
studentofgann.com.au
Student of Gann at twitter
 

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It will be extremely interesting to see how AUD/USD reacts to today’s RBA Meeting as the pair edges lower today after losing support at 0.7200 overnight.

Economic data since the last meeting has been mixed, creating a lot of uncertainty as to whether we will see another 25bps rate hike, or a more hawkish 40bps move as Q1 inflation figures came in above the RBA’s target band.

A 40bps hike would also take the cash rate back up to pre-COVID levels and realign it with the 25bp increment it has historically moved in. This could also help AUD/USD extend its recovery from the mid-May lows, although gains are still likely to be limited by the strong resistance at the 200-day MA.

All trading carries risk, but it will be worth keeping an eye of the Aussie Dollar with the RBA’s decision just a few hours away.
 
The RBA Interest Rate dicision has been made by rising up 0.5% to 0.85%. Watching the AUD/USD rise quite magnificently to 0.72449c. Interesting to see were it goes for here. Slowly decreasing in price. Will it fall back on its bearish trend or continue on with highs, if it has the confidence...

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Stockybailz said:
The RBA Interest Rate dicision has been made by rising up 0.5% to 0.85%. Watching the AUD/USD rise quite magnificently to 0.72449c. Interesting to see were it goes for here. Slowly decreasing in price. Will it fall back on its bearish trend or continue on with highs, if it has the confidence...

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I was asking myself the same question as it affects my Gold bar of which I bought many more recently and the strong AUD decreases the value in AUD which is what I buy my cigars, beluga, RN98 and Champagne in.

My guess is The Fed will have a similar rate rise. They meet again next week, so I'd imagine the AUD may take a hit then.

I've never traded Forex, so I'm no expert.

gg
 
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