Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AUD/USD

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Roller_1 said:
If we push down to the pink line I am going to look for a pop off of there

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Looking at further strengthening of the USD later in the evening, so its hard to call but an interesting prospect for the time being. I see a day range of high momentum to be followed by a calapse later in the evening. Interesting call, good to see how it all plays out?
 
Stockybailz said:
Looking at further strengthening of the USD later in the evening, so its hard to call but an interesting prospect for the time being. I see a day range of high momentum to be followed by a calapse later in the evening. Interesting call, good to see how it all plays out?
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This is an interesting analysis. What do you see fueling the USD strength today?

From a technical perspective, the greenbacks rally is showing signs of stalling as DXY continues to face selling pressure above 109, despite the Fed’s signals for a continuation of tighter monetary policy.

Of course, there is still key US jobs data due this week, so perhaps a stronger-than-expected print will be the catalyst to help DXY break to a new 20-year high.
 
Stockybailz said:
Looking at further strengthening of the USD later in the evening, so its hard to call but an interesting prospect for the time being. I see a day range of high momentum to be followed by a calapse later in the evening. Interesting call, good to see how it all plays out?
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Should see this push downward in 2-3 hours time lunch time at best. Couldn't see the AUD bouncing until late evening, looking forward to tomorrows highs...Have every confidence in this I really don't think the AUD has enough confidence to push up given today's economic range...
 
CityIndex said:
This is an interesting analysis. What do you see fueling the USD strength today?

From a technical perspective, the greenbacks rally is showing signs of stalling as DXY continues to face selling pressure above 109, despite the Fed’s signals for a continuation of tighter monetary policy.

Of course, there is still key US jobs data due this week, so perhaps a stronger-than-expected print will be the catalyst to help DXY break to a new 20-year high.
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Surprised to see the bounce towards resistance 0.6888. The USD should rally stronger from this point, looking for future lows. Although I must admit the AUD does appear exhausted at the time being. Can't quite put me finger on it but I can't see the AUD breaking out above resistance 0.6888...
 
Stockybailz said:
Surprised to see the bounce towards resistance 0.6888. The USD should rally stronger from this point, looking for future lows. Although I must admit the AUD does appear exhausted at the time being. Can't quite put me finger on it but I can't see the AUD breaking out above resistance 0.6888...
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Aussie miners like BHP and Rio Tinto converting USD into AUD for dividend payments could also be a factor helping the pair hold support around 0.6850. However, risk-off sentiment and the pullback in commodity prices does limit the potential upside for AUD/USD.
 
CityIndex said:
Aussie miners like BHP and Rio Tinto converting USD into AUD for dividend payments could also be a factor helping the pair hold support around 0.6850. However, risk-off sentiment and the pullback in commodity prices does limit the potential upside for AUD/USD.
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That's good to hear, its a bit difficult to be confident, looking in from the outside. Where as you would have the inside intel giving you more transparency into the situation. i must say thank-you @CityIndex for correspondence...
 
Stockybailz said:
Should see this push downward in 2-3 hours time lunch time at best. Couldn't see the AUD bouncing until late evening, looking forward to tomorrows highs...Have every confidence in this I really don't think the AUD has enough confidence to push up given today's economic range...
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More downward pressure on the AUD today, much like yesterdays mixed bag. I see a stale mate situation with the AUD/USD today with both USD and the AUD in the red on economic front. For me Analysis Suggests there could be a push down towards 0.677 but the AUD would have something to say about that. To be watching the AUD/USD virtually track sideways again today...
 
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Enjoying the analysis/discussion here as want AUD to capitulate leading up to 5th September (the lower the better) - in turn to boost dividend payout $$ on my BHP shares lol
 
Telamelo said:
Enjoying the analysis/discussion here as want AUD to capitulate leading up to 5th September (the lower the better) - in turn to boost dividend payout $$ on my BHP shares lol
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I think you might be in luck, looking at the economics if that's any thing to go bye. The AUD doesn't really gain any resistance, until the start of next week Monday 5th Sept as you said. Even then I think it still under a lot of pressure and may lack in confidence...
 
Here's a look at the AUD/USD in all it's glory since late NOV 21. Can only tell you one thing that things aren't promising. looking forward to next weeks forecast with the RBA Interest Rate Decision plus things looking a bit more positive. In the long run it looks doomed, since the ca-lapse of early April 22, lower highs, lower lows?...

1662008893345.png
 
Keeping an watch on the lower highs, lower lows situation, I'm not surprised to see the AUD forecast for further lows today, hopefully to improve on Monday but time will tell. Analysis suggests;
The RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6800 and 0.6816).
Preference:
The downside prevails as long as 0.6814 is resistance. Looking for 0.6719.
Alternative scenario:
Above 0.6814, look for 0.6848 and 0.6868.

1662071159670.png
 
A tough call for the AUD today. In what looks to be choppy conditions, economics looks positive for the AUD. But Analyst a calling for future downturn of pivot point 0.6836,,,
The RSI is below 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6818) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6802).
Could go either way?
Preference:
Target 0.6739.
Alternative scenario:
Above 0.6836, look for 0.6870 and 0.6891.

1662324746450.png
 
Stockybailz said:
A tough call for the AUD today. In what looks to be choppy conditions, economics looks positive for the AUD. But Analyst a calling for future downturn of pivot point 0.6836,,,
The RSI is below 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6818) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6802).
Could go either way?
Preference:
Target 0.6739.
Alternative scenario:
Above 0.6836, look for 0.6870 and 0.6891.

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I agree it will be tough for the AUD today.

More though from fundamentals although your TA seems reasonable on the face of it.

We will see 0.6700 or lower soon imo.

A v. strong USD. China still locked down. Russia going the full Nazi and looking at a v. poor Aftermath, and Europe as usual a bloodthirsty mob of self interest feeling the chill.

gg
 
Didn't see that coming the AUD falling to a new low of 0.6777 first thing this morning. i thought it would be choppy but not to that extent. Now on the rebound as the AUD has tough conditions ahead...

1662326606671.png
 

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