AUD/USD

[peter2]

OK I'll bite. AUDUSD Buy stop: 0.7715, SL 0.7688, target 0.7750 (set and forget)

 

[peter2]

@Cam019 Timely post on the AUDUSD. My trade hit it's target overnight. Price is going higher.

 

[Smurf1976]

My currency speculation efforts are in the "experimental" category at present so don't take my analysis too seriously but the AUD has dropped to .7325 at present. I'm thinking that's unsurprising given the broader picture of a drop in other markets over the past day or two and also the COVID lockdowns now affecting ~half the Australian population probably aren't adding too much to confidence.

Looking at a chart going back several years I'm thinking that we're headed to 70 cents or thereabouts. A nice round number which has at varying times over the past 2.5 years marked a temporary top or bottom.

At present holding the USD ETF although I'm trading it as though it were a stock not a currency pair.

Interested in the thoughts of others.....

 

[qldfrog]

I believe the USD is on a global decline but will still go much higher AUD wide.708sh looking reasonable in a crash situation.
if it reaches these levels, i would be keen to swap usd for russian or Chinese currencies which are more gold backed..
That the monthly/ yearly plan...
The wildd card is independent cryptos like btc eth..will they be suppressed or act like the new gold.

 

[Student of Gann]

I have prepared two Curves indicating the possible direction of the AUDUSD .
Curve No 1 : Indicates the possibility of price moving down into the 21st September for Low then up till 20th October for Main Top and down till 4th November for Low.
Curve No 2 : Indicates the same pattern of direction with trend up till 20th October where Main Top is indicated .
Out of the two potential Low dates the * 4th October looks like s stronger possibility due to the convergence of two Cycles into this date so my strategy would be to wait and see if we trade below the 21st September point and if that date can not hold as Low we should then continue to move down into the 4th October so I will be watching the next few sessions closely to see how it plays out . There is also another Minor swing point indicated for the 12th October which could either turn out to be Minor high or low but it appears the prevailing direction out from the projected Lows is up till the 20th October then we could be lower into the 4th November which should be another significant turning point

 

[CityIndex]

AUD/USD seems to be getting a boost from the recent rise in iron ore prices following China’s latest efforts to stimulate the economy by lowering their 1-year loan prime rate. This comes despite the RBA minutes showing the Aussie central bank is remaining dovish while the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy.

Following yesterday’s 0.83% rise, the pair now looks on course to test this month’s high at 0.7225. A strong break from this level could ignite an extended rally. However, given the latest report showed US consumer confidence improving, coupled with the newly hawkish Fed, USD bulls could very easily step in and limit upside potential for AUD.

All trading carries risk, but it should be very interesting to see what direction this currency pair takes in the final few days of 2021.

 

[qldfrog]

AUD/USD seems to be getting a boost from the recent rise in iron ore prices following China’s latest efforts to stimulate the economy by lowering their 1-year loan prime rate. This comes despite the RBA minutes showing the Aussie central bank is remaining dovish while the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy.

Following yesterday’s 0.83% rise, the pair now looks on course to test this month’s high at 0.7225. A strong break from this level could ignite an extended rally. However, given the latest report showed US consumer confidence improving, coupled with the newly hawkish Fed, USD bulls could very easily step in and limit upside potential for AUD.

All trading carries risk, but it should be very interesting to see what direction this currency pair takes in the final few days of 2021.

Had a good.lucky sale 2d ago on a substantial packet.moved more by logistic than market cunnings..but profit is in.

 

[CityIndex]

AUD/USD took a hit after Wednesday’s FOMC minutes showed a willingness by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates sooner and faster to deal with inflation.

Selling accelerated on Thursday as the currency pair fell below 0.7200, and with US Non-Farm Payroll out later tonight there could still be more downside on the cards. If employment keeps up its recent pace of recovery, it could all but confirm an earlier-than-expected rate hike, and expose AUD/USD to a retest of support near 0.7100.

Are we in for a deeper pullback, or can the pair bounce from here?

All trading carries risk, and it remains to be seen how the Fed reacts to tonight’s employment, but this definitely looks like one to add to the watchlist for the time being.

 

[investtrader]

I follow the AUD/USD mainly for my business, as I import a fair bit priced in USD. I have noticed huge volume lately on the Weekly chart on Trading View. Anyone have any idea why this is? Assuming the data in accurate I guess.

 

[frugal.rock]

From FXStreet,

• The AUD/USD technical momentum is positive after the breach of the previous year-to-date high (0.7441). Economists at OCBC do not rule out further extension towards the 0.7550 zone.

Buoyant aussie​

“The underlying environment – improving sentiment, stability in China, rising commodity prices, unwinding of AUD-shorts – is favourable for the AUD at this juncture.”
“The technical momentum for the AUD/USD could see the pair taken towards 0.7550.”

 

[Stockbailx]

From FXStreet,

• The AUD/USD technical momentum is positive after the breach of the previous year-to-date high (0.7441). Economists at OCBC do not rule out further extension towards the 0.7550 zone.

Buoyant aussie​

“The underlying environment – improving sentiment, stability in China, rising commodity prices, unwinding of AUD-shorts – is favourable for the AUD at this juncture.”
“The technical momentum for the AUD/USD could see the pair taken towards 0.7550.”

AUD/USD has I guess came close to reaching the 0.7550 mark. 5/4/22 Momentum changed, and it has since been traveling south. It looks to be following yesterdays lows today at around the 0.74 price. My take is that low momentum will continue into next week, price will moderate around the election...

1day chart

 

[Student of Gann]

Hello here is a Forecast for the AUDUSD which was posted on the 30th March calling Top for the 6th April currently down 411 points .

AUDUSD Curve :
Price will most likely follow Curve 1 but Curve 2 has been included for reference . Trade in the direction of the prevailing trend out of the timing dates.

 

[Stockbailx]

For me the AUD/USD on a weekly prospective looks to be trending south. In the coming days there will some upturn, but the correction is with the downside momentum...

 

[Stockbailx]

The AUD still looks in negative territory, further downturn predicted for the day. The daily chart appears oversold, as the weekly bearish momentum continues. Although on the other hand if tomorrows interest rate decision is to rise, you should see the AUD rise with it disrupting momentum and we could see a correction in play for the near term...

 

[Student of Gann]

Here is the AUDUSD Forecast issued 30th March calling Top for the 6th April with main trend down to 29th April where main Low is indicated.
studentofgann twitter

 

[qldfrog]

WTF,?
48h ago:
Australia bumps rate by 0.25% and the aussie $ stays more or less flat..ok i can understand that..small interest rise,not enough to make difference vs inflation. And US reserve bank to announce his decision soon
Today US bumps rate by 0.5%,highest one step jump, twice the aussie size
And the AUD jumps by nearly 2pc..no kidding

Ohhh thanks God i am not doing forex, i would be annihilated...but my gold silver and us denominated assets still get a heavy respective hit...
What am i missing?

 

[Cam019]

What am i missing?

Fundamentals or technicals Frog?

Fundamentals I would have no clue. Technicals however show that the hourly chart had switched to a bullish structure by 11am on the 03/05/2022. Then there were plenty of structure breaks on lower timeframes which left behind great demand zones for entries.

Longer term however - AUD/USD is bearish. Weekly shows the following.

Blue box is the overall structural leg we are in. Red box was the last unmitigated supply zone which was tested, but not broken through with displacement (candle close on this timeframe). Best analysis is that price is heading back up to test the white box and then continue heading lower. First to the liquidity point marked and then probabilities suggest even lower.

 

[qldfrog]

Was trying to put basic economics, sense etc.could not...
The only advantage i see currently in the AUD is its commodities link
Otherwise all negative: election cycle ,China ,oil price, inflation and RE crazy country

 

[Cam019]

Was trying to put basic economics, sense etc.could not...
The only advantage i see currently in the AUD is its commodities link
Otherwise all negative: election cycle ,China ,oil price, inflation and RE crazy country

I stopped trying to understand the fundamentals and economic factors quite a while ago. Did my head in. I’ll leave that fun endeavour for you to undertake. ??

 

[Stockbailx]

Fundamentally I think the rate hike, has changed the trend of the AUD. Technically the momentum has changed to bullish until the next USD rate rise when ever that might be. With that been said I'll still be buying the AUD/USD...