AUD/USD

[Ann]

economics
Aussie's Crazy Day Shows Why It's Most Volatile Major Currency

The Australian dollar is showing why it has been the most volatile Group-of-10 currency in the past month, swinging about 1.7 percent just in one day.

jobs data, forcing traders to close short positions. Less than an hour later, it sank when an influential economist at Westpac Banking Corp. said the central bank may cut rates twice. The Aussie got a reprieve on reports that the U.S. and China are nearing a trade deal, only to plunge more than 1 percent when Reuters reported that a Chinese port customs has banned its coal shipments indefinitely.

More....

 

[Fxortrader]

AUSSIE DISAPPEARED AFTER MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES DECREASED

AUDUSD weakened after the Australian flash manufacturing PMI in March fell to 52.0 vs 52.9 the previous month. The return of safe-haven sentiments related to North Korea also weighed on the Aussie.

At writing, AUDUSD is trading at 0.7104, down 5 pips from the close of the New York session last night.

A new wave of risk aversion is gripping the Asian market amid the latest US-North Korea problems. The US tightened sanctions to North Korea after the failed Trump-Kim Jong un agreement in Vietnam. Two Chinese companies are penalized for doing business with North Korea.

While other news that boosted safe-haven sentiment was China reportedly wearing an anti-dumping policy on several products from the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, causing higher yields on US Treasury.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/audusd-outlook/188016-aud-usd-weekly-outlook-112/
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

 

[cogs]

Looks like just another 'pump n dump' with their sell orders placed close of market friday.



Outcome. Now obvious which direction they want.

Now waiting for Lond/US to hold the decline, or up to consolidate at the gap before further decline. Bit of a nasty gap.

 

[cogs]

And we're in. Bit of a gift horse after the last few days setup.

 

[cogs]

Wage price index m/m is due out shortly and supposed to way heavily on rate decision, sooner or later.
Could see 0.68 today??
Eventually I expect to see ~0.66 as forecast some time ago, AUDNZD is close to its forecast 0.64, AUD just needs to catch up. Hmm great shorts in AUDNZD?

 

[cogs]

I'll just answer myself on this one. Not quite reaching the 0.68.
If we see a pop spike up today on employment data it is going to be a great opportunity to put on the new shorts.

 

[sasch]

I'll just answer myself on this one. Not quite reaching the 0.68.
If we see a pop spike up today on employment data it is going to be a great opportunity to put on the new shorts.

View attachment 94663

Hi Cogs,

This downtrend is reminding me of the flash clash which happened earlier in the year. A lot of negative market sentiment relating to AUD, yet retail traders are heavily long (87% on my broker so far, creeping up quickly), but the price is not budging upwards. Poor souls...

I agree, one nice pop would create a very nice short setup

 

[cogs]

Hey Sasch,
I had my suspicions whether they would spike up, as it would have been too obvious, instead they did the opposite, spike down then slight pop. Goes to show never trade the obvious. I didn't get in on this just a small short on AUDNZD being a safer bet in my eyes at the time.

Yes i try and source as much 'heard positioning' info as possible so I can mostly do the opposite.
Seems inexperienced retailers still enter too early so as to not miss out.

Blue labs has an app for brokers that can source ALL MT4 positions across Metaquotes which would be priceless, unfortunately not available to retailers.

 

[cogs]

A piece of gold for readers/retail traders.

Linear equation algo turned off (no fx on weekends so they have no choice). Price opens (jumps/gaps) to closest pool of liquidity, because the algo is no longer controlling it.
Now new algos take over along with MM's and big players. They have achieved their short term goal. They always used for squeezing weak positions out.

The linear equation algo's are gold and they haven't tried to hide them, yet. They nearly always end with a aggressive snap back in the opposite direction. The market is full of them and if you drill down through time frame you can spot them, and when they switch them off.

This one is AUDUSD I thought I would share.
Now you can guarantee there will be numerous news articles explaining (or attempting) this as good news post election and all other kinds of bunk.

 

[cogs]

And another gap fill.


Looking for an attempt at PumpnDump over the next 13 days prior to rate announcement.
Although to an extent rate cut has partially been factored in. Tricky when it is already sold down so much. Sometimes best top sit on the side and wait for good setups, other AUD pairs over extended may show better promise.

And another gap filled.

 

[cogs]

Dipped into a pool of liquidity before continuing on its way. I am sure EURUSD will do similar, although tonight may squeeze more shorts first. Either way I'm averaging in.
On with the shorts.

 

[cogs]

Got in, got out.
Seems since the announcement of 3 x rate cuts coming, some large players are forcing a obvious short squeeze, pumpndump and discount entry prior to potential announcement next week. Might see 0.702 ish then back on with the shorts. maybe some confident longs before then.

 

[cogs]

Adding a little of context from sentiment interpretation.

Most of the chart below is self explanatory, but why I have posted this is because it is a little unusual for a 'major' pair to give profits like this to retail traders. ie - the dark red line rising slightly above the orange line, which is retail short slightly entering into profit.

What you should also find interesting the amount of retail longs trapped near the recent top, now at 82% long and holding. This is showing 76% of the total 82% long positions are at a loss. Usually I find these go to a maximum of ~2% difference max. before a price turn.

Another point is never, ever is any profit percent above total positions for very long, if at all. Crosses however are different.

 

[cogs]

This is the NZDUSD version. You can see why price slows when moving toward a intended target. In this case too many retail shorts are making small profits, which is not allowed, small false bottoms are made to entice dumb money buying, knife catching, bottom picking pheeeewie, never good.

 

[cogs]

And here is the cross pair. AUDNZD

Overall you can see there is more potential for retail traders to be profitable from cross pairs. In this case 60% are long with price going up, ie - less longs trapped. Longs tapering off and shorts building.
The price controllers have time and money on their side, so can hold price where they want as long as they want, retailers have less patience. Time may well generate more income for them than price movement.

Using the legend in the previous post, you can see longs accumulating at bottoms and shorts at tops etc. but still lagging. The same goes for predictability of ranging market prices.

 

[greggles]

AUD plunges through support at 67.5c and momentarily sinks below 67c after New Zealand's central bank cuts interest rates by half a percent. Sounds like ours will be cut again next month.

AUDUSD almost back to GFC lows now. Good for exporters, not so much for importers.

How low can the AUD go?

 

[jbocker]

AUDUSD almost back to GFC lows now. Good for exporters, not so much for importers.

Not so good if you are overseas on holiday.
But gotta look on the bright side..
Good for Dividends paid in USD.
Looking a bit further...
AUD keeps going down we may soon start up our own sweat shops. Anyone got any tshirt patterns and a bunch of old singers (sewing machines). This could stitch up Newstart problems.

 

[cogs]

AUDUSD and NZDUSD are approaching long term (projected) lows of 0.66 and 0.64 respectively. Having said that we are in uncharted territory with our 'debt based financial system', so (personally) I am expecting a 'financial reset' in my lifetime which could give little meaning to any current pricing and charts shown.
I will be trading a range of sorts in the current months with AUD which will be a relief from this constant race to the bottom.

 

[greggles]

Aussie dollar taking a hammering.