AUD/USD

[RogueTrader273]

Thanks fraa, sounds like a promising idea Googled some etfs, how does this one sound? XBJJ - TFS Long AUD Short EUR. Apparently IB will convert USD back into AUD so that doesn't appear to be a problem.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Divergence of price and Macd histogram on the hourly leading into the RBA interest rate announcement in 15 minutes. I am guessing 0.7385 or less as the top. Possible outcomes from past experience is a blow off above the recent high and then fall away or a fall on the confirmation of no cut this month but maybe next at 2.30 p.m.

 

[pixel]

Divergence of price and Macd histogram on the hourly leading into the RBA interest rate announcement in 15 minutes. I am guessing 0.7385 or less as the top. Possible outcomes from past experience is a blow off above the recent high and then fall away or a fall on the confirmation of no cut this month but maybe next at 2.30 p.m.

View attachment 67014

Surprise! Market may have expected what you said, but the RBA sounds somewhat different.

“Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May meeting, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and inflation returning to target over time,” said the RBA.

... and the AUD jumps above 74.2c

 

[Wysiwyg]

Surprise! Market may have expected what you said, but the RBA sounds somewhat different.

... and the AUD jumps above 74.2c

Yes that is what happened yet the price continues to diverge from the Macd. The defiance is fantastic.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Finally gave up the run after tipping the 75 cent milestone. Gotta admire the play makers. They love a good squeeze.

 

[T0BY]

Anyone else short?
Risk off sentiment surrounding Brexit.
Although last NFP number from the US was off the mark, Yellen still leaning towards hawkish with regards to rate hike in coming months.
Although last Australian GDP number was better than expected, Stevens still leaning towards dovish with regards to rate cut in coming months.

 

[cogs]

I am warily short. We have employment figures coming out tomorrow and depending on how they cherry pick the survey as to the size of the move. NFP and Brexit have been moving the AUD more than anything, so depending on how they interpret the Brexit outcome, will determine how they want to market to move tomorrow.

Think we potentially have some upside movements to balance out Londons move down from .74 yesterday, I will be adding shorts there.

Brexit moves will be factored in this week, for sure.

Declining algo wedge on NZDUSD has room to move up soon which usually plays along with AUD. Will wait and see, but it looks like they are throwing mud against the wall now to see if it will stick.

 

[ukulele]

Will you guys be leaving your positions open during FOMC? I suppose the risk is not as big as say a 50% expectation to hike.

 

[cogs]

Looks like .74 going, next stop .747.

 

[cogs]

I will be very interested to see this employment data. They are pumping the AUD up like they expect bad figures, but employment data is well known to be unpredictable because of the method and survey technique, and there is always talk to pump up (jawbone) the economy and employment figures.

I see this as an opportunity to drop the AUD, will wait and see. After all if it doesn't go up it will go down right!

 

[cogs]

No figure fudging today. It appears they realise Brexit news is king.

 

[notting]

Feds just waiting for Bexit not to happen before the raise.
We need to see some headline making market meltdowns to swing the fear of brexit into gear so they vote no. The fear mongers have managed to get the idiot populous wanting to sing, 'God save the queen.' BS
I didn't see the fed talk as dovish other than they didn't this month just in case.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

I see this as an opportunity to drop the AUD, will wait and see. After all if it doesn't go up it will go down right!

There's your drop

 

[cogs]

Yep, a nice one and got a few more on, but very obvious and watching it closely.

The better position has been XAUAUD with all the Brexit scare and AUD counter move. No brainer.

 

[cogs]

Game to make a rate call for Tuesday anyone?

I am cumfortable believe a 'hold on rates' for now and continue to trade the fades back up to pre brexit 0.76, but always ready for the dump after the pump.

If however the want to surprise with another cut so soon, I stand ready to short down to 0.73ish. I am sure they will pump the Aussie up to satisfy the fade by Tuesday release time so they can move either way after the event. Like always news doesn't always mean much, it is only catalyst for order fills and moving money around.

 

[cogs]

Looks like they want to get the fade over and done with prior to the rate release tomorrow.

Also looks like I need to put spell check on.

 

[cogs]

Any expectations from the employment survey?

Strange play prior to release. They are pushing the price down I think to then spike up to 0.765, calling a top, then followed by a push down.
IMO because this survey is used for manipulation, and as it is not actual factual data, I think they will bring out a low number to try and put a lid on 0.765, now that 0.76 has been faded and especially prior to Carny's potential rate release later. 0.746 to 0.738 in mind after release.

Anyone else making a call?

Technically there is room to see 0.80, 0.86, 0.93, but fundamentally this doesn't work. Will wait and see I spose.

 

[CanOz]

Any expectations from the employment survey?

Strange play prior to release. They are pushing the price down I think to then spike up to 0.765, calling a top, then followed by a push down.
IMO because this survey is used for manipulation, and as it is not actual factual data, I think they will bring out a low number to try and put a lid on 0.765, now that 0.76 has been faded and especially prior to Carny's potential rate release later. 0.746 to 0.738 in mind after release.

Anyone else making a call?

Technically there is room to see 0.80, 0.86, 0.93, but fundamentally this doesn't work. Will wait and see I spose.

Cogs, the fx market is one of the largest most liquid markets in the world....are you sure it's manipulation?

 

[cogs]

are you sure it's manipulation?

Without doubt during the Asian session, and doesn't mean it cannot be 'manipulated'.

I have heard that 5 trillion dollar expression sooo many times, but if you do the numbers hedge funds, banks, leverage etc. then what is available at a given moment in the Asian session and the players can certainly try, after all, that is how the currency moves anyway, supply demand. London does it on nearly every open after the Asian session.

I recently posted a study about 'the cascade effect in fx markets' and it was quite interesting.

Call movements at news release what you like, that is simply the wording I used at the time, some view the word 'manipulation' in a fraudulent sense, I actually intended it as a market mover for the release.

 

[cogs]

Well there's the spike, which didn't even reach half the daily range, let's see if they can keep a cap on 0.765.

I seem to be the only one making calls on these movements, but lonely here, time to move on maybe.