AUD/USD

[T0BY]

short 75 pip r:r swing trade..

 

[BeanJumbler]

What do people think - does the AUD have further to fall?

I am no forex trader, but I bought some USD a while back when the AUD was a lot higher. Sitting on a nice paper profit, but deciding when exactly to sell is (as usual) the hard part!

 

[T0BY]

What do people think - does the AUD have further to fall?

I am no forex trader, but I bought some USD a while back when the AUD was a lot higher. Sitting on a nice paper profit, but deciding when exactly to sell is (as usual) the hard part!

I think it may have a bit further to go. I have an initial target of 0.745.

 

[PipSafe]

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD dated 09.04.2015

AUD/USD on 02.04.2015 by creating the ideal bottom price (formation of hammer candlestick with candle confirmation) has started to ascend and could record the top price of 0.77378.Right now in daily time frame price is above 5-day moving average and warns the potential of ascending of price during the next days(Long term time) .Price has formed a top price (Evening star pattern) with reaching to the specified resistance levels in the picture below and it has stopped from more ascend and has started a little descend with shows exit of some buyers from their trades.

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the bottom price of 0.75327 and top price of 0.77378 , there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with none-ideal ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that with completion of the D point , there is a warning for stopping of uptrend and changing price direction.RSI indicator is in saturation buy area and in divergence mode with the price chart confirms the mentioned top price and warns about changing price direction.The first important warning for ascending of price is breaking of the 0.77378 resistance level(R1 of Pivot Point or D point).

 

[notting]

Let this run a bit then get set for the next jawbone comment from the RBA taking it back down again with the reality that it needs to be there for our economy!

Me thinks.

 

[Ann]

Let this run a bit then get set for the next jawbone comment from the RBA taking it back down again with the reality that it needs to be there for our economy!

Me thinks.

I doubt the RBA have a whole lot to do with the overall direction of the $A. We measure it against the $US and the $US is in turn measured by the Euro. Currently the Euro seems to be making an upward move from the low trending support line of the falling channel in which it is running. As the Euro rises the $US falls as the $US falls the $A rises. It ain't really rocket science!

...and a chart to show what the Euro is up to at the moment.....will it keep rising?

 

[graexx]

I doubt the RBA have a whole lot to do with the overall direction of the $A. We measure it against the $US and the $US is in turn measured by the Euro. Currently the Euro seems to be making an upward move from the low trending support line of the falling channel in which it is running. As the Euro rises the $US falls as the $US falls the $A rises. It ain't really rocket science!

...and a chart to show what the Euro is up to at the moment.....will it keep rising?

Ann

Agreed, but for traders the news/data (including RBA news) is tradable because:

1. The correlation between the two pairs is obviously way less than 1. So traders can focus solely on the AUD.USD data very successfully. Adding the euro relationships can lead to paralysis by analysis.

2. For pip traders, each important economic announcement, by the US and Aus governments, offers many sub-100 pip trades.

Graeme

 

[Boggo]

Is the AUD finally approaching its low ??

Weekly chart below (click to expand).

 

[gartley]

Is the AUD finally approaching its low ??

Weekly chart below (click to expand).

Hello Boggo. I think it has further to fall on this leg down to around 0.708-0.71 and coupled with a 5 wave decline you show we should get a rally. But IMO it's not the final low. If I take the cycles work I do at face value the initial value for the final low would be around 0.66 and that is where I would look. But there is also the possibility of a bigger cycle in play and if that takes hold we could see 0.56. But I doubt it.

Interestingly, the low from 2008 to the high in 2011 was 34 months. IF it continues down into Dec/Jan it will be 55 fibonacci months from the 2011 high, a squaring in time and expectations would be for a major trend change. In the same way we had 89 fibonacci months from the peak in 2007 to the peak in 2015 in the All Ords and you can see the trend change result.

 

[Boggo]

Hello Boggo. I think it has further to fall on this leg down to around 0.708-0.71 and coupled with a 5 wave decline you show we should get a rally. But IMO it's not the final low. If I take the cycles work I do at face value the initial value for the final low would be around 0.66 and that is where I would look. But there is also the possibility of a bigger cycle in play and if that takes hold we could see 0.56. But I doubt it.

Interestingly, the low from 2008 to the high in 2011 was 34 months. IF it continues down into Dec/Jan it will be 55 fibonacci months from the 2011 high, a squaring in time and expectations would be for a major trend change. In the same way we had 89 fibonacci months from the peak in 2007 to the peak in 2015 in the All Ords and you can see the trend change result.

That's interesting gartley.

The max for W.5 based on the chart above would be about 59.5, anything seems possible at the moment !

 

[Cazzarazza]

Hi,
New to trading but very interested in trading the U.S./Aus and have been doing OK.
Just wondering if anyone can advise me on plus 500 and their settlement abilities at present?

 

[Boggo]

Hello Boggo. I think it has further to fall on this leg down to around 0.708-0.71 and coupled with a 5 wave decline you show we should get a rally. But IMO it's not the final low. .

Turning close to that level gartley and playing by the rules for now.
What next is the question ?

(click to expand)

 

[sinner]

Turning close to that level gartley and playing by the rules for now.
What next is the question ?

(click to expand)

It's possible to build models of the drivers of forex pricing. Some input examples might be:

* Interest rate differentials/swap rates
* Current account differentials
* Stock market index spread (e.g. AUD/USD ~= NYSE/ASX)
* 6A futures positioning

and so on.

Which of these inputs is the marginal (i.e. major, current) driver of the pricing often changes.

But right now, the marginal driver is definitely rate differentials and the expectations thereof. Most of the decline in AUDUSD is down to USD strength, driven by expectations of a USD rate hike.

Based on an assumption that rate differentials continue to act as the marginal driver:
* USD rate hike 0.25% - no major move, already priced in
* USD rate hike >0.25% - could see further declines in the AUDUSD rate and intervention by the RBA as we did at levels stretched beyond their "fair value" indication (I think currently sitting around ~0.75) in 2008.
* USD rate cut 0.25%, or USD no hike - probably see an AUDUSD spike back towards RBA fair value.
* USD rate cut >0.25% - probably see an AUDUSD spike back to anywhere close to 0.9-1.

I think the first outcome "no major move" is the most likely, we will be "chopping wood" around here for a while just like we did in the 0.9-1.1 bracket, a pricing which was achieved thanks to the large rate differential at the time.

 

[Stratanu]

The pair confirmed a strong closing last night well above the tops of the previous few sessions suggesting further upside potential toward the 100 days line at 0,7289!!
The indicators of the daily chart are now well positive as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further strength. Bearish divergences in the hourly chart since this morning support further upside potential, postponing the negative reversal situation for now.
In case of a return toward the 200 hour s line at 0,7170 I suggest buy the Aussie for a move higher!!

 

[cogs]

The pair confirmed a strong closing last night well above the tops of the previous few sessions suggesting further upside potential toward the 100 days line at 0,7289!!
The indicators of the daily chart are now well positive as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further strength. Bearish divergences in the hourly chart since this morning support further upside potential, postponing the negative reversal situation for now.
In case of a return toward the 200 hour s line at 0,7170 I suggest buy the Aussie for a move higher!!

Are you buying it?

 

[cogs]

Now you could take a small long, for the fade only.

IMO the best of AUDUSD are going to be shorts for a while to come.

 

[RogueTrader273]

I'm thinking about converting a bunch of AUD to USD - considering using Interactive Brokers, does anyone know if there's an Aussie service with a similar or better rate? Thanks in advance.

 

[fraa]

I'm thinking about converting a bunch of AUD to USD - considering using Interactive Brokers, does anyone know if there's an Aussie service with a similar or better rate? Thanks in advance.

No service will beat IB AFAIK, assuming you have IB setup to allow you to do FX.

 

[RogueTrader273]

No service will beat IB AFAIK, assuming you have IB setup to allow you to do FX.

Sadly IB inform me there's new reg's disallowing conversion of AUD to USD This is very annoying.

 

[fraa]

Sadly IB inform me there's new reg's disallowing conversion of AUD to USD This is very annoying.

Tell me about it. Technically there is a trick around it, but I am not sure you can wire the money out as USD.

i.e. what you do is buy a USD money market ETF (or something that doesnt move much) with a high price per unit to minimize commisions.

IB will buy the etf, leaving you with a negative USD balance. The system then automatically converts AUD to USD to cover this negative balance. The rate used is the same as before.

You can then sell the etf to leave you with a positive usd balance.

Not sure then whether you could wire the USD out though