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I hope so.
If there is an upside move, I think 0.76 would have to be the short term limit. If there is a down side, well I hope it can break the trend support down to 0.73ish.
I find it a questionable news release, seeing it has been known by data sources for 1 month already anyway, being a delayed release, but can be so impactfull.
If there is an upside move, I think 0.76 would have to be the short term limit. If there is a down side, well I hope it can break the trend support down to 0.73ish.
I find it a questionable news release, seeing it has been known by data sources for 1 month already anyway, being a delayed release, but can be so impactfull.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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IT was moving well before the release...by 'well before' i mean seconds not milli seconds...
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Soft side is up, (path of least resistance), it's a matter now of what the Australian central, and Aussie banks want to do. They can certainly show us during the Asian session, but cannot have a say after that.
The short squeeze from yesterday seems to be running out of steam, but we need to see if London wants to get out of AUD, if so they will push up to 0.76 to fill orders. AUDNZD has to touch 1.08 yet so it will be NZD weakness or a shunt up from the AUD.
The short squeeze from yesterday seems to be running out of steam, but we need to see if London wants to get out of AUD, if so they will push up to 0.76 to fill orders. AUDNZD has to touch 1.08 yet so it will be NZD weakness or a shunt up from the AUD.
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Ok, it appears they have shown they want down, so away we go! Testing the trend now.
Anyone else on the USDJPY rocket ship? My Indicator showed buy all round prior to release.
Anyone else on the USDJPY rocket ship? My Indicator showed buy all round prior to release.
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USDJPY turned out to be a big old fake out, I lost a couple, but by the way they are forcing it back down it may have some up side tonight yet.
very confusing with Japan stimulus having less and less effect each round.
very confusing with Japan stimulus having less and less effect each round.
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Interesting call parity (again): http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-27/australian-dollar-back-to-parity-on-trump-win/7663928
I can see it happening. Australian policy has very little effect on the AUD when it comes to market moves, mighty USD controls all. Reduction in interest rate should help reduce bond buying, but counter USD moves largely influence the AUD.
I can see it happening. Australian policy has very little effect on the AUD when it comes to market moves, mighty USD controls all. Reduction in interest rate should help reduce bond buying, but counter USD moves largely influence the AUD.
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I was going to ask if anyone cares to make a call on the interest rate decision Tuesday, but it appears more and more likely (to me) that the AUD is set to climb longer term, even if a rate cut is implimented.
It looks like the USD is set for further falls which can only push the Aussie higher. There is growing expectation that a cut will happen, but seriously I do not know if it will have much impact medium to long term, unless the USD settles or US conditions do not roll over, or a larger than 0.25 cut happens.
The way I see it, it will take some special effort to stop this nice bottom from inviting more bulls and interest, especially the way the aussie economy and employment is always jaw boned up so much. The aussie certainly popped during US session friday.
I think they will cut Tuesday, if not Sept for sure.
It looks like the USD is set for further falls which can only push the Aussie higher. There is growing expectation that a cut will happen, but seriously I do not know if it will have much impact medium to long term, unless the USD settles or US conditions do not roll over, or a larger than 0.25 cut happens.
The way I see it, it will take some special effort to stop this nice bottom from inviting more bulls and interest, especially the way the aussie economy and employment is always jaw boned up so much. The aussie certainly popped during US session friday.
I think they will cut Tuesday, if not Sept for sure.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Hiya folks, happy Monday morning!!
A potential short play on the AUD is shaping up. Looking to jump onto a third drive lower here towards a target of 75.60. If we can bounce into the .7600 -.76.05 area we could have a great entry. Look for sellers here. Good risk to reward at over 1:4
These levels are the CME 6A FX Futures and are not the same as the cash.
A potential short play on the AUD is shaping up. Looking to jump onto a third drive lower here towards a target of 75.60. If we can bounce into the .7600 -.76.05 area we could have a great entry. Look for sellers here. Good risk to reward at over 1:4
These levels are the CME 6A FX Futures and are not the same as the cash.
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Call me crazy but this is my game plan right now while typing.
Imagine.
AUDUSD hitting 0.82
GBPUSD hitting 1.0
GBPAUD hitting 1.20 ? ? <- 5,000 pips away.
If GU hits 1.0 and AU hits 0.82 the math on that is fairly epic for GA dropping thousands of pips.
I have been holding long AU for a few months now, just waiting for the breakout. Gain positive swap for holding AUD$.
What do you guys think ?
Imagine.
AUDUSD hitting 0.82
GBPUSD hitting 1.0
GBPAUD hitting 1.20 ? ? <- 5,000 pips away.
If GU hits 1.0 and AU hits 0.82 the math on that is fairly epic for GA dropping thousands of pips.
I have been holding long AU for a few months now, just waiting for the breakout. Gain positive swap for holding AUD$.
What do you guys think ?
personally don't think aud/usd will hit that high. The divergence of central bank policy is just too strong a headwind. But if I was a good trader I'd be a multi millionaire... So take everything I say with a grain of salt.
Did anyone trade the announcement? A small win here, considering basically everyone predicted the outcome.
Did anyone trade the announcement? A small win here, considering basically everyone predicted the outcome.
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I agree it's going to head back down on the daily but I'll be just scalping to after the US elections now
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You guys been looking at monthly/weekly charts?
Interesting the efforts trying to keep a lid on it. You could also say there is room for some upward movement.
Make or break, US the 'Trump factor' would do it. Crazy all the hype and market movement over the possibility of him getting in. The world continues anyway, idiots.
Interesting the efforts trying to keep a lid on it. You could also say there is room for some upward movement.
Make or break, US the 'Trump factor' would do it. Crazy all the hype and market movement over the possibility of him getting in. The world continues anyway, idiots.
This article offers an explanation for Aussie dollar's plunge overnight. It is due to the price fall of commodities that are exported by Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...ar-taken-to-the-cleaners-20170503-gvyf4y.html
The Australian dollar dropped overnight, falling near a four-month low, as copper paced base metals sharply lower in London and iron ore futures in China tumbled.
The local currency "has been taken to the cleaners", said IG Markets's institutional dealer Chris West. The Aussie fell 1.5 per cent to US74.21¢, its lowest since January 11.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...ar-taken-to-the-cleaners-20170503-gvyf4y.html
The Australian dollar dropped overnight, falling near a four-month low, as copper paced base metals sharply lower in London and iron ore futures in China tumbled.
The local currency "has been taken to the cleaners", said IG Markets's institutional dealer Chris West. The Aussie fell 1.5 per cent to US74.21¢, its lowest since January 11.
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In my opinion there is no point finding out what caused a movement after the fact. The news will always find a explanation to satisfy (or lead) the curious.
Look at daily or weekly charts, this has been rolling over since week ending 19.03 and is heading for 0.72 then 0.70 then below that. Before that though there will be upticks to frighten out the small money and fill more orders.
Look at daily or weekly charts, this has been rolling over since week ending 19.03 and is heading for 0.72 then 0.70 then below that. Before that though there will be upticks to frighten out the small money and fill more orders.
The Aussie dollar has been under the extreme level of bearish pressure in the global market from the very beginning of the year 2016 and things went to the extreme level after the U.S dollar index secured a 14-year record high in the global market. Most of the leading investors were in doubt regarding the next bearish target of the AUDUSD pair but things settled down nicely after the green bucks lost its bullish momentum in the global market after the U.S consumer sentiment turned extremely negative in the global market.
From the above figure, you can see that the price of the AUDUSD pair has been trading in a triangular region in the trading platform. The professional Aussie traders made a decent income by selling the triangle resistance level in the higher time frame. The trade setups were extremely good as it was executed in favor of the long-term existing trend with price action confirmation signal. But over the period of time trading the triangle support and resistance level is getting much risk as the price is verging near the breakout region of the triangle chart pattern. Though the long-term trend in the AUSUSD pair is bearish we can see a nice bullish morning start formation in the triangle support region in the trading platform. This gives us a clear clue that the price is not ready to break the critical support level at 0.7320 in the global market rather it might surge upward in the upcoming days. However, a clear break of the tail of the bullish morning start pattern will initiate a sharp fall in the AUDUSD pair in near term future. The bullish target still remains intact on the weekly chart and the aggressive long traders are aiming for the triangle resistance level as their profit-taking zone.
In the above figure, you can clearly see that the price has broken the bearish trend line resistance on the daily chart and this clearly suggest that the pair has scope to move upwards in the upcoming days. However, the bullish movement of the pair is still capped unless the price break the critical resistance level at 0.7514 level in the global market. A clear break of the price above that level will bring a significant amount of buying pressure in the AUDUSD pair which will ultimately drive the price to up towards the shaded region at 0.7595 in the global market.
Fundamental analysis: The Aussie is most likely to go upward when we consider the fundamental factors in the global market. The recent performance of the U.S economy is significantly week in the global market and all the investors are now eyeing on the upcoming FED meeting. If the FED hike their interest rate then we will see a bearish movement in the AUDUSD pair in favor of the long-term prevailing trend in the market. On the contrary, a dovish statement from Chairperson will fuel of the Aussie buyers and drive the price up in the market.
Summary: Considering the technical factors the AUDUSD pair remains strongly bullish in the global market but things will get much clear after the FED interest rate hike decision in the FOMC meeting minute. Most of the leading investors are currently waiting on the sideline and waiting for a clear clue to trade the pair with price action confirmation signal. However, when you execute any orders make sure that you use the proper risk management factors to reduce the risk exposure in trading.
Let’s do the weekly chart analysis in the AUDUSD pair
Figure: Price trading in triangular range in weekly chart
Figure: Price trading in triangular range in weekly chart
From the above figure, you can see that the price of the AUDUSD pair has been trading in a triangular region in the trading platform. The professional Aussie traders made a decent income by selling the triangle resistance level in the higher time frame. The trade setups were extremely good as it was executed in favor of the long-term existing trend with price action confirmation signal. But over the period of time trading the triangle support and resistance level is getting much risk as the price is verging near the breakout region of the triangle chart pattern. Though the long-term trend in the AUSUSD pair is bearish we can see a nice bullish morning start formation in the triangle support region in the trading platform. This gives us a clear clue that the price is not ready to break the critical support level at 0.7320 in the global market rather it might surge upward in the upcoming days. However, a clear break of the tail of the bullish morning start pattern will initiate a sharp fall in the AUDUSD pair in near term future. The bullish target still remains intact on the weekly chart and the aggressive long traders are aiming for the triangle resistance level as their profit-taking zone.
Let’s do the daily chart analysis in the AUDUSD pair
Figure: Broken trend line suggest further bullish movement
Figure: Broken trend line suggest further bullish movement
In the above figure, you can clearly see that the price has broken the bearish trend line resistance on the daily chart and this clearly suggest that the pair has scope to move upwards in the upcoming days. However, the bullish movement of the pair is still capped unless the price break the critical resistance level at 0.7514 level in the global market. A clear break of the price above that level will bring a significant amount of buying pressure in the AUDUSD pair which will ultimately drive the price to up towards the shaded region at 0.7595 in the global market.
Fundamental analysis: The Aussie is most likely to go upward when we consider the fundamental factors in the global market. The recent performance of the U.S economy is significantly week in the global market and all the investors are now eyeing on the upcoming FED meeting. If the FED hike their interest rate then we will see a bearish movement in the AUDUSD pair in favor of the long-term prevailing trend in the market. On the contrary, a dovish statement from Chairperson will fuel of the Aussie buyers and drive the price up in the market.
Summary: Considering the technical factors the AUDUSD pair remains strongly bullish in the global market but things will get much clear after the FED interest rate hike decision in the FOMC meeting minute. Most of the leading investors are currently waiting on the sideline and waiting for a clear clue to trade the pair with price action confirmation signal. However, when you execute any orders make sure that you use the proper risk management factors to reduce the risk exposure in trading.
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Like I said up ticks to takeout small stuff and fill orders. Now on with business.
Very interesting watching the banks come in here after the announcement of positive retail. I say retail therapy due to financial stress and low employment.
Very interesting watching the banks come in here after the announcement of positive retail. I say retail therapy due to financial stress and low employment.
