AUD/USD

Frank D · 1 February 2011

AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD following my hunch of a text book pattern, and rising back towards the
January 50% level @ 1.0007 from Monday's support.

If the AUD is going to go higher, then my ideal pattern would be a retest of
Weekly 50% level and/or February 50% level, and then for the trend to
continue up towards the Weekly highs by Friday.

Based on Today levels, if above .9977 then the trend bias is to
continue towards Tuesday's highs, and matching January 50% level:- random
resistance.

Note:- 1.0007 resistance levels have now shifted and are trading below, giving
more reason for the AUD to push upwards, as long as it remains above the
February 50% level.

Frank D · 2 February 2011

AUD/USD

Breakout of Tuesday's highs, as the January resistance levels disappear, and now
the trend is moving towards the February highs.

My ideal pattern didn't play out as expected, but as pointed out yesterday, there
was an expectation that Tuesday would initially push upwards, whilst
above .9977, which then resulted in the breakout, and now the likely extension
up towards Wednesday's highs @ 1.018

Weekly highs now become support zones for this week, if there's any 12 hour
weakness.

IB12 · 2 February 2011

Frank D said:
AUD/USD

and now the likely extension up towards Wednesday's highs @ 1.018

Weekly highs now become support zones for this week, if there's any 12 hour
weakness.

are you sure?

Frank D · 3 February 2011

IB12 said:
are you sure?

I'm sure about, if there's any weakness during the 12 hours (if below 1.0108), that
the Weekly highs would support the trend this week.

And now the next trend will be determined by the following level from 11am...

And whether the AUD continues towards Thursday's highs, as part of my view of AUD moving higher in February, and then towards 1.06 in 2011

or it once again moves into another consolidation pattern on Thursday, drifting lower.

Frank D · 7 February 2011

AUD/USD (Dilernia model)

AUD remaining within text book patterns, and as long as it's above the weekly
level @ 1.0117,

The trend bias is to continue towards the Weekly and Monthly highs, as part of
the breakout from last Week's highs into this week's highs :- break & extend

Frank D · 9 February 2011

AUD/USD:- Dilernia model

AUD continues to be supported above 1.0117, but it can't rise higher than the
Primary range of 85 pips. (consolidation)

My view is still based on the break and extend pattern from last week's highs into
this week's highs:- continuation of the UP trend.

As long as it remains above Support

jonojpsg · 10 February 2011

Hey Frank, do you consider the drop below $1.0117 a break of support now and how does that change the outlook? Have been playing short AUD for a while and obviously am out of the money but have added more at current levels to bring my average back to high 99s - is that level in play in short term?

Frank D · 11 February 2011

jonojpsg said:
Hey Frank, do you consider the drop below $1.0117 a break of support now and how does that change the outlook?

It has changed the outlook in the short-term, but i'm not so sure in the medium
term, as we have a similar pattern as December.

So instead of going up this week, we have a Weekly pattern that's rotating back
into support & the 50% levels @ .9974/76

Therefore, you would need to see how Friday plays out, and see if support levels
are validated, and then re-evaluate next week:- does support hold and
continue upwards?

Frank D · 14 February 2011

AUD/USD

As noted in the previous post:- Friday helps validate higher timeframe support
levels @9974/76.

and whilst price remains this Week's 50% level @ 1.0016, my view is that
the AUD will try and swing back towards the Weekly highs.

if it remains choppy around these levels for the next 2-days, then there is always
the possibility that from Wednesday onwards the AUD moves back down
towards .9921

however, the latter isn't part of my overall view of AUD (bullish)

ShawnL · 14 February 2011

AUDUSD D

AUDUSD 4H

Took a long entry based on analysis in earlier post.

Entry: Long at 1.0028
Stop: 0.9932
Risk: 3%, due to the trend has not kick in yet, and we are still in a triangle consolidation in the daily.
Target 1: Previous high of B, 1.0179.
Target 2: 1.0286, confluence of 127.0% and AB=CD completion.

Frank D · 16 February 2011

AUD/USD

We have a similar pattern as last week, the AUD can't remain above the 85 pip
highs, and is now rotating down towards .9921 and Wednesday's lows.

The next leg upwards was based on 2nd support, and 2nd support failed
to hold on Tuesday.

Based on the daily range:- my view is that the AUD will continue down, and follow
the daily range towards Wednesday's lows and the monthly level @ .9921

ShawnL · 16 February 2011

Cut loss at 0.9974 when the 1.0000 support no longer holds. I should have respected the triple top in daily, especially when the top had been formed rather recent.

Am not looking to go short or long at the moment, and I will be sitting on my hands for more structures in the market.

ShawnL said:
AUDUSD D

Took a long entry based on analysis in earlier post.

Entry: Long at 1.0028

Stop: 0.9932

Risk: 3%, due to the trend has not kick in yet, and we are still in a triangle consolidation in the daily.

Target 1: Previous high of B, 1.0179.

Target 2: 1.0286, confluence of 127.0% and AB=CD completion.

Frank D · 16 February 2011

AUD/USD

My view was that the AUD would hit .9978/85 and continue down towards
Wednesday's lows.

Instead there is a 4-hour close above the intra-day level @ .9985 @ 3pm

This could see more upside during the first 12 hours, however it could also simply be
a retest of the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016.

not a high probability set-up to BUY & Hold, but .9985 is now the trend guide.

Frank D · 18 February 2011

AUD/USD

As per Weekly 'HOOK' patterns:- higher highs by Friday.

Random resistance Friday's highs.

Expectation that the AUD is following a double Weekly high pattern into
next week's highs

prawn_86 · 21 February 2011

So on a longer term fundamental front, are we seeing a shift away from the USD as a safe haven?

The USD 'safety' status has been a puzzling one in the last decade as it has ran up more debt, but with what is going on in the Middle East at the moment its interesting to see that the USD is not making any gains. 2 years ago if we had riots in the Middle East risk aversion would have kicked in and the AUD would have dropped, and hard. Now nothing...

Have we finally see the fundamental shift everyone has been waiting for?

Frank D · 21 February 2011

prawn_86 said:
So on a longer term fundamental front, are we seeing a shift away from the USD as a safe haven?

Have we finally see the fundamental shift everyone has been waiting for?

I'm not sure whether it's a change in fundamentals in the USD, or simply
based on technicals, and China's appetite for our resources.

AUD/USD

Looking for the AUD to continue towards this week's highs.

However, based on the short-term patterns, I'm looking for a 2-day reversal
pattern back down into the trailing support levels (Weekly 50% level).

If that plays out, then from Wednesday onwards looking for the trend to
continue towards the Weekly highs, and then the Monthy highs in the last week of
the month

sinner · 21 February 2011

prawn_86 said:
So on a longer term fundamental front, are we seeing a shift away from the USD as a safe haven?

Have we finally see the fundamental shift everyone has been waiting for?

Flat right now, but if I had to I'd put money on nope.

Things are worse than 2008, the difference between AU and rest of developed world is that when other economies started "stimulating" to slow down de-leveraging, same tactic here actually had the effect of causing us to re-leverage. Not sustainable, and has the added bonus effect of killing any international competetiveness for sectors which aren't tied to the great Bernankethon currently underway.

The AUD is strong on a short term relative economic basis (nice way of saying we don't have 20% unemployment like Spain). However take a look at the long term. Our productivity is lower and inflation is higher than pretty much everywhere else over the long term. People aren't paying us because we make things (Germany/China), value add (Japan/Korea) or provide useful services (Cayman Islands, Luxembourg). They are paying us because of the things in our ground.

All IMHO. You get paid a sweet carry rate by the AUDUSD to disagree with it.

Frank D · 22 February 2011

AUD/USD

Expectation of a 2-day reversal back down into the Weekly 50% level has played
out, however it has kept on going, and could continue to trend down into the daily
lows (random support).

Unless Tuesday closes back above the Weekly 50% level, and Wednesday provides
the pattern I was looking for (trend continuing towards this week's high from Wednesday onwards)....

you might be right, in regards to a flight to the USD, as the trouble coming out of the
Middle East looks to be getting worse in the short-term.

sinner · 22 February 2011

Frank D said:
you might be right, in regards to a flight to the USD, as the trouble coming out of the
Middle East looks to be getting worse in the short-term.

lol

It's definitely gotta be riots in Libya and Morrocco which is causing the Aussie dollar to drop like a hot knife through your buttery lines during Tokyo hours!

It couldn't possibly be the AUDJPY selling which stormed Tokyo today, or the huge 5+% crapout Zinc took during Shanghai session nor the massive earthquake in NZ being followed by correlation desks everywhere. Certainly it couldn't be that interbank providers are massively long and leveraged into AUDUSD and short EURAUD for months on end causing them to be temporarily squeezed on moves like an earthquake or crapout in Zinc.

Millions of market participants are looking at the news out of Bahrain and deciding to sell Aussie dollars...yep, that must be it.

Why do we even bother using charts? Just buy Aussie dollars when Bahrain isn't rioting, and sell them when they are.

I am just saying this with tongue in cheek, not serious.

P.S for the record, interbank players didn't even sneeze at todays action, happy to buy the shorts offered by retail money and hedge funds all day long (as measured by SWFX). I am not expecting a carry trade unwind until these guys are net short.

Frank D · 25 February 2011

AUD/USD

Tuesday found support on the daily lows, matched with the February 50% level
@ .9974

It took until Thursday 11pm for the trend to get back above the Weekly 50%
level @ 1.0053

Whilst AUD remains above certain key levels in the daily and weekly range, the
trend bias is up towards the highs once again.

AUD/USD

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