Bit early I think. @this moment CME Futs trading .9873. SPOT FX .9910
Short AUD CME Futs @.9930/40. Spot equivalent .9960/70.
Then 350 pip drop............. well that's my plan. Not to be taken as trading advice.
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AUD/USD - 15 NOV 2010:
As it s been mentioned on 29 sept 2010
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=583169&postcount=52
the long term resistance line has been passed up, this is very important for this pair and we could be witnessed stronger AUD against USD in long term. now after AUD/USD became more than 1 , we can see that the pair reaches the important 1.618 Fibo (pic 2)
also negative divergence between MACD Histogram and Pair and touch the upper line (resistance) of the upward channel. we could expect correction until it touches uper line (support) of this channel. If this line wont be able to (I guess it will) hold it we might see AUD/USD near 0.91 again (pic 1)
As it s been mentioned on 29 sept 2010
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=583169&postcount=52
the long term resistance line has been passed up, this is very important for this pair and we could be witnessed stronger AUD against USD in long term. now after AUD/USD became more than 1 , we can see that the pair reaches the important 1.618 Fibo (pic 2)
also negative divergence between MACD Histogram and Pair and touch the upper line (resistance) of the upward channel. we could expect correction until it touches uper line (support) of this channel. If this line wont be able to (I guess it will) hold it we might see AUD/USD near 0.91 again (pic 1)
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Nice analysis there Iced Earth. I like the fact that you have looked at Multiple time-frames.
With the Weekly Trend still quite bullish and the Daily and Hourly still looking range bound (at the moment), I think its a bit premature to be going short on the AUD/USD (at least with my trading system anyways).
With the Weekly Trend still quite bullish and the Daily and Hourly still looking range bound (at the moment), I think its a bit premature to be going short on the AUD/USD (at least with my trading system anyways).
HHHmmmnnnn - not so sure, just cracked down below .9800, looking rather bearish on my chart
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Thanks Trend Hunter;
I believe in mid & long term the possibility of bullish is higher than bearish. in short term we might see down till the support line ( lower line of the channel) any further low and it might go down to 0.91 ...
Cheers...
AUD/USD
AUD continues the rotation down from the November highs into the
lower weekly levels.
We have a similar pattern in October, but the market dynamics
has changed and I don't think November is going to find support at
this Weekly level @ .9763 and continue higher for the rest of the month.
What I want to see is how the Weekly timeframe (Friday) closes in
relation to .9641, as this is my support level for November.
Bearish pattern in the USD index has changed, with Monday moving above
the November 50% level and continuing higher, which may continue in
the short-term into higher highs by Friday.
AUD continues the rotation down from the November highs into the
lower weekly levels.
We have a similar pattern in October, but the market dynamics
has changed and I don't think November is going to find support at
this Weekly level @ .9763 and continue higher for the rest of the month.
What I want to see is how the Weekly timeframe (Friday) closes in
relation to .9641, as this is my support level for November.
Bearish pattern in the USD index has changed, with Monday moving above
the November 50% level and continuing higher, which may continue in
the short-term into higher highs by Friday.
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AUD/USD
I was looking for the trend to continue down into the Weekly lows @
9629, however a shift in intra-day dynamics on Wednesday during the
US timezone changed that, resulting in the Weekly level @ 9763
and matching filter push the AUD into a higher daily close.
Thursday’s resistance @ the 50% level failed during European trading
hours and now the AUD looks to be moving back towards the Weekly
50% level and Friday’s highs.
I would look at Friday’s highs as resistance during the Asian timezone,
but that can change 12 hours later.
I was looking for the trend to continue down into the Weekly lows @
9629, however a shift in intra-day dynamics on Wednesday during the
US timezone changed that, resulting in the Weekly level @ 9763
and matching filter push the AUD into a higher daily close.
Thursday’s resistance @ the 50% level failed during European trading
hours and now the AUD looks to be moving back towards the Weekly
50% level and Friday’s highs.
I would look at Friday’s highs as resistance during the Asian timezone,
but that can change 12 hours later.
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Whiskers
It's a small world
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Importand juncture here I think.
Bounced off the shoulder for the moment, but the weekly chart suggests it must go soon... probably shake .93 around for awhile.
Thought I'd colour up a gloomy day with some of the main indicators on the weekly chart as to why I didn't initially expect it to break parity. The signs were heavily bearish.
Just goes to show what a bit of push and shove with a bit of extra cash can do.
If this comes off quicker than the price of commodities, which it may do with a bit of help from North Korea, we should get a bit of a bounce back on our share market.
I really, really hope so now, cos my first long (share) order just got hit as I was posting.
Bounced off the shoulder for the moment, but the weekly chart suggests it must go soon... probably shake .93 around for awhile.
Thought I'd colour up a gloomy day with some of the main indicators on the weekly chart as to why I didn't initially expect it to break parity. The signs were heavily bearish.
Just goes to show what a bit of push and shove with a bit of extra cash can do.
If this comes off quicker than the price of commodities, which it may do with a bit of help from North Korea, we should get a bit of a bounce back on our share market.
I really, really hope so now, cos my first long (share) order just got hit as I was posting.
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Whiskers
It's a small world
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hi all - some major divergence on long term view too fwiw
(Not sure what degree this count fits within, but it looks pretty clear that we're in a final leg - which may have topped already)
Yep, that agrees with my count.
targeting the w4 low could be interesting Whiskers
Yeah, I'll have a little wager on it reacking the start of w4... but the bottom of w4 may be a bit optomistic, (or is that pessimistic
) in the short term, but it would be one hell of a boost for our commodity exporters... oh, and my currently acquiring share portfolio. AUD/USD
November's highs completed the 2 month wave pattern extension in the
4th Quarter resulting in a reversal down into the December 50% level...
If AUD is going to continue towards higher highs in 2011 and
follow an orderly pattern upwards...
then any further gains will depend on next week's 50% level.
November's highs completed the 2 month wave pattern extension in the
4th Quarter resulting in a reversal down into the December 50% level...
If AUD is going to continue towards higher highs in 2011 and
follow an orderly pattern upwards...
then any further gains will depend on next week's 50% level.
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AUD Weekly and Daily range
AUD trying to follow the December highs @ 1.02 by next week.
Continuation of the upward trend after finding support @ the
November 50% levels has remained within orderly weekly patterns…
With the Weekly 50% level providing support 3-weeks ago, as per
previous post.
Trend guide over the next 12 hours is defined by .9991
AUD trying to follow the December highs @ 1.02 by next week.
Continuation of the upward trend after finding support @ the
November 50% levels has remained within orderly weekly patterns…
With the Weekly 50% level providing support 3-weeks ago, as per
previous post.
Trend guide over the next 12 hours is defined by .9991
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AUD/USD :- Dilernia Model
AUD has risen 41 pips from the previous 12 hour lows (partial exit)
Target remains Wednesday's highs (trailing support has risen to 1.0119
confirmed @ 11pm)
Overall target remains December highs @ 1.02, and then with a possible continuation
towards January highs
AUD has risen 41 pips from the previous 12 hour lows (partial exit)
Target remains Wednesday's highs (trailing support has risen to 1.0119
confirmed @ 11pm)
Overall target remains December highs @ 1.02, and then with a possible continuation
towards January highs
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Could hit 1.02-1.03 by the looks of things.
Not sure, since the market is quite thin atm.
But certainly 1.02+ doesn't seem implausible, since most other currencies are doing poorly in comparison. AUD is the new 'safe haven'.
Not sure, since the market is quite thin atm.
But certainly 1.02+ doesn't seem implausible, since most other currencies are doing poorly in comparison. AUD is the new 'safe haven'.
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Just dropped a nice short on the little aussie on the 1 minute chart from 1.01335 down to 1.01115 for 220 pips. for around $960 profit. I'm long now ATM up about $200 on the 1 minute chart. Plenty of action on the little aussie battler today
Plenty of action on the little aussie battler today
