Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ATN - Ashburton Minerals

Even if an ASX query is on the way its an opportunity to re-iterate what ATN has got that others only can wish they had:
1. A proven artisanal goldfield;
2. Confirmed drilling results by BHP of significant large intercepts of high grade gold;
3. Surface exposures confirming continuation of similar structures and lithologies extending way beyond the area mined to date;
4. A drill rig about to commence a diamond drilling program testing the artisanal area.

What have I left out? Oh, yeah - a screaming share price with a solid base formed already, but thats why the ASX would be asking the questions, if it indeed its going to.

Just imagine the sharetrading when the drilling begins, surely the rumours that might fly, whether true or false, could send this ballistic! (Ok I am excited again, but its possibly the beginning of company transformation for ATN).
 
What an amazing end of the week for ATN, with it today moving up 0.06 cents up 9.37%, to close at 7.0 cents after very briefly touching 7.1 cents. I feel vindicated in my watching closely over it the last couple of weeks, and I have no doubt that we are due to get more fireworks from it in the coming weeks, as the drilling proceeds.

What has impressed me is the level of demand for the stock by some (one, group?) that seems to be aggressively picking at it in a manner that does not suggest its just the normal daytrader activity - I would like to hear of anyone else's views on the subject.

ATN has made my week, and I hope all the viewers to the ATN thread are also in the stock - I wish you all a good Easter.
 
What an amazing end of the week for ATN, with it today moving up 0.06 cents up 9.37%, to close at 7.0 cents after very briefly touching 7.1 cents. I feel vindicated in my watching closely over it the last couple of weeks, and I have no doubt that we are due to get more fireworks from it in the coming weeks, as the drilling proceeds.

What has impressed me is the level of demand for the stock by some (one, group?) that seems to be aggressively picking at it in a manner that does not suggest its just the normal daytrader activity - I would like to hear of anyone else's views on the subject.

ATN has made my week, and I hope all the viewers to the ATN thread are also in the stock - I wish you all a good Easter.

Thanks mate, and you too. I am holder of this stock and happy with the run thus far, however I was tempted today to sell, I may hold and see what happens
 
I was looking back over the 18/11 ann and looking at volumes prior to the ann to buy Obi. There doesn't seem to be any lift in volume, no leaks and no mention in the previosu qtrly (Sept) report. Good sign.

I was wondering how long it would have taken them to get the samples to an assay lab and wait for results - they had them 18/11. How far back would they have got them and sent off to the lab??
 
Hi SpongeBob and great to get your post. I understand your dilemma with regard to an exit, and of course its always a very personal decision based on your own situation and motivation. Having been investing in spec shares for more than 40 years now I am not immune from the same decision, and often I make the wrong decision, but as long as you make it with the knowledge you are happy with the outcome then just don't look back. ATN has risen well in the past few months, and I take comfort from the ever-rising upward trend, and knowing that the best is probably still to come I certainly have no intention of exiting at this time - ATN is a situation stock, and its just entering its situation IMO, and with my confidence of the particular project fundamentals I believe its got very reason to increase with price.
At the same time, I am surprised with the last couple of days performance, and I have wondered if there is an announcement, possibly even unrelated to Obi, that is being prepared. But thats just a speculation of mine to try to rationalise the trading activity, and since ATN is a pure spec we sure are allowed to speculate on what might be happening!

Mgm1a, I agree with you that the timing of the Obi acquisition seems to have been watertight, regardless of when those samples were analysed, and if you look closely at it, the volume and price really only started its upward ascent the day after the announcement of Obi. And since then its been on an ever uphill run! A few chances for a breather, but certainly an impressive looking chart for an amateur like me. As to your direct question of the timing of samples, we can only speculate since the trip was not known about at the time, and since the trading followed the announcement, its all in order IMO.

I would add one other element to the tightness of the company, which I am sure you are probably well aware of - the Chairman, Rick Crabb, is certainly a man of high integrity, and a very well respected commercial lawyer and company director, and Chairman of the $2.85 billion Paladin!!! He has a reputation to protect and certainly would not be one to push trading leaks - in fact I have known Rick for many years and believe he is actually quite conservative but confident in his manner, so he certainly is someone I personally trust and have supreme confidence in - I wonder if his involvement is part of the reason that ATN has such a strong investor following at present - success breeds success, and that makes money!

One final thought, as recent as June 2010 ATN made it known in the Qtrly report: " ...The Company continues to investigate new opportunities in Australia and overseas, whether in its own right or in joint venture, targeting gold and copper mineralisation. Specifically, the Company is seeking a major gold project that meets its strategic criteria, namely, demonstrated gold mineralisation, under explored and of a large size.” ATN made that statement and it has delivered a gold project that could become a huge company maker, and I value a company that makes a statement then delivers within a reasonable timeframe!

We have many things going for us at ATN, the general market is buoyed, commodities are at or close to record levels (gold is at record levels, silver is close to an all-time high, copper also is up), the drill rig is almost ready to commence, and the share price has continued to trend higher ....
 
happy easter all. golden eggs all round..
beatle thanks for insight re Rick Crabb - checked him out - the directors have been supporting co. raisings last 3 years, not much buying outside those. The value of his ATN holding in order of $5M-ish, which is probably going to give his $14m-ish a run.
He is director of PDN since 1994. As I may have said before I like businesses that have long termers to deliver on the vision.

Yes his credence and the stability of the SP will inevitably be great value with next big cap.raise, and will be major point for getting insto support.
Still my concern is knowing if its run too far too fast......
 
Hi Mgm1a, and agree with your points about Rick Crabb and the directors long term involvement with ATN. I know that they are all committed to make this work, and the MD is actually very confident that the project will come up trumps, and I believe that the decision to set up the MD with a large option package is their belief that this project will really fly with resulting increase in the share price.

As for capital raisings, at the moment ATN has got $3.5 million cash in bank and they are budgetting for around $1 million in the coming months for exploration at Obi and clearly this exploration is a pre-cursor to lots more activities on the Island if the project has the goods. Assuming that potential is delivered then clearly the share price will be a lot higher than it is now, so dilution is unlikely to be huge, esp knowing that they have some very wealthy backers in the wings! Its a bit like ROL in that respect, it delivered with the first drilling on Romang Island and the huge elevation in share price enabled them to raise considerable funds without any significant dilution. I understand that ATN is not looking to raise cash at the moment anyways, it has sufficient to keep the activity up until the project is considerably more advanced.

As for how far ATN has moved, I agree that its acceleration in share price has increased in the past week, and I guess its only natural to expect it come back to earth in coming weeks from a general share trading point of view, all stocks do that, but knowing the fundamentals and the timing of what is happening at the moment with the drilling etc, I can see ATN continue in its upward trajectory for the next few weeks.

I would love someone who has much more knowledge on the technical trading aspects post on ATN, but in the absence of that, I think the 2 key points are:
1. ATN is now at a key level, of 7.0 cents, which is a resistance level from recent past history, and therefore a break up from that will be seen as extremely bullish - how far above 7.0 cents it has to go to achieve that I'm not sure, but certainly if we hit 7.5 cents on continuing high volume surely it will be very positive.
2. ATN's chart over the past few months now since getting Obi has seen it break a number of key resistance levels, all on relatively good volume, and its upward trajectory is well-estabished, with a solid base developed before that move upwards. That upward trend is unlikely to be broken in coming weeks knowing what is ahead of the company, even if there is some pause to its movement.

I'm still a holder, and intend to hold shares in ATN for more than a short term, fundamentally I can see it having considerable success with the drilling, backed with the confidence of both the artisanal mining AND the historic BHP drilling, plus the geological evidence that the vein sets and brecciation that is characteristic of the gold mineralisation on Obi extends way beyond the artisanal mining area, for some kilometres! My hopes are that it will be testing around 16 cents in the next couple of weeks, and with large drilling intercepts achieved it could really excite the market and move upwards towards 25 - 30 cents if the general market conditions remain as strong as currently (ie general bullish share market environment, plus high to record gold/silver prices in US$). Of course, thats just IMO!!!
 
According to ATN's last update the drilling rig arrival on Obi Island is due tomorrow, 27th April, with drilling expected to commence shortly thereafter, targetting the vein sets within the artisanal mining area initially, and stepping out from that area. Based on that recent past mining and the historic BHP drilling we should expect to see some good intersections announced in due course, but of course the time lag between drilling and those announcements will be something to consider. IF visible gold is observed in the diamond drillcore you can bet there will be some interesting times ahead, but visible gold even in high grade deposits is hard to find with the drilling, you have to be very lucky or the gold has to be exceedingly high grade to see lots of it in core. Here's hoping...

On another front, since I began posting a few weeks ago there has been quite a few views made on this website on this thread (views has increased from 120 odd views to 2,460 odd views). To me that is heartening news, it means that people are interested to follow the story, its a shame there aren't more who want to post on the thread, but surely in time that will follow by posting as well.
 
Hey beatle..couple of things to ponder.

First, the ann. 18/4 re results from BHP/PT aneka Tambang days makes me wonder if they had these results when they negotiated the deal late last year. I would have expected them to have been passed down through owners since, then to PT Eka Samudra Nusantara...surely the locals would have bought tenement based on the value (i.e. results) ? In some respect if ATN truly established these recently with hard evidence it crystallises a teeny bit of the risk since Nov'10.

Second, BHP work based on soil and trenching work...how would you rate that in terms of other technologies that will be brought to bear. Is there a possibility that the results and artisanal activity, as good as they are, do not in any way extent of the project size that modern geopyshicy thingimies will display?

Third, i re-read Tom D's recent reply to ASX - classic in many ways and very much of the school that I like - using the occassion to do the PR.... e.g.

"The facts have not changed" ..lol .....there take that you silly oafs

"we expect to experience similar such support and demand for our securities as news of our activities continues to spread"...confident bordering cockiness ??

Nothing to talk about here, just the annoucements, so I guess that is why its specualtive!
 
Hi Mgm1a, hope you and all other readers had a good Easter/Anzac break, its been a long time since our last trading session!

As to your question regarding the timing/etc of the announcement and the actual time when ATN received the BHP report. I guess without any inside knowledge its easy to speculate but hard to know the facts on when management became aware of the report, but from my past personal experience its not unusual to slowly pick up pieces of the puzzle of past information as time goes by. IF the information had been available at the time of them signing up the deal I would have thought ATN would have been very happy to announce it earlier, but then that's just my own view.

What I do wonder about is the exact location of the holes - from what I can make out, it appears the report didn't have the longitude and latitude of specific holes (which is possible, but it usually appears in either an appendix attached to the report or in another report), or was on a local grid, and it seems that ATN has scouted with the benefit of local knowledge to locate the individual holes in the field without knowing particular hole information. Or maybe ATN does have more information about relative location of holes and the assays for each of the outlying holes (assuming that some holes are far from the artisanal mining area) ....

As to your question about the geophysical methods and how they rate compared to geochem methods that BHP used earlier on, I must admit that I am not the expert on more recent geophysical technology and advances that clearly have progressed tons since I was a practising geologist (and most geologists still confer to geophysicists when it comes to determining a particular technology). I would make the general comment though that all geophysical methods rely on a particular property of the rocks and therefore it depends upon the certain mineralisation style as to whether geophysical methods will have any affect, thus it relies on things such as presence of magnetite, or massive sulphides or particular clay alteration products or radioactivity for them to work effectively, and this Obi style of gold mineralisation being possibly a vein/quartz association, possibly with some sulphides, might not provide an obvious geophysical response.

On the other hand geochem methods tend to have a better direct association with mineralisation, and are also easier/cheaper and faster to carry out (unless you have a scintillometer hand gun for radiation work etc).

As to the PR side of things, I agree that ATN has a good turn of phrase in its announcements, and I have no doubt that it will be very opportunistic in its attempt to get the news out to all, especially if the ASX provide the opportunity via speeding tickets (lol!). I still wonder if the smoke with regard to the passing observation that the chinese were interested in the Obi Island property will finally turn into fire some time! (I am wondering if we will see a substantial shareholder notice come in from some group in due course - again another speculation of mine!).
 
I'm surprised that ATN has an announcement out first thing this morning about directors increased shareholding, instead I had expected an announcement confirming arrival of the drill rig on Obi Island. Therefore I assume it unlikely that the rig arrival announcement will come today - most companies prefer significant announcements to have a higher priority and to be released first.

Of course it may have been that ATN don't expect to get news through about the status of the rig until later in the week - which means shares might continue to trade at this slightly lower level until we get the news later on in the week. But once we know that the rig is on the island and getting ready for drilling then the last of the uncertainty is removed about drilling.
 
Interesting story in the making here.
Liking the prospect of the newly-acquired Obi Gold Project in Indonesia, and the increased gold exposure from the option on fields at Yea in Vic. There is also the Mt Webb copper project in Western Australia.
Thought it was worth a small entry today, it will be an interesting one to follow.
 
Hi Longique, great to get your post on ATN, and I thought it might be worthwhile giving my view of some of the things that you have noted:

Firstly, I believe that the ATN board has decided that Obi Island is likely to be the future for the company, with the potential for substantial gold resources and significant low cost gold production to follow, of course always subject to confirmation drilling just about to be embarked upon. The potential appears enormous.

Mt Webb, which is a huge project in itself, unfortunately appears to require a considerable amount of cash for ongoing exploration, despite it also having the potential to be a major project. And its in the right metal, copper, with forecast world supply/demand metrics suggesting a future bright outlook for copper price in coming years. From ATN's own admission in its quarterly activities report ("Mt Webb IOCG, WA
The Company has progressed negotiations with a potential joint venture partner to fund future exploration of this promising large project in far eastern Western Australia. A detailed announcement is expected to be made once an agreement is signed, which is expected to occur in the March quarter.") - it appears that it is close to completing a major farm-out of that project, and could potentially be the wildcard with respect to the chinese (speculation on my part only!), and it could also provide a reason for substantial corporate interest by a major as well!

(Once again my speculation, but I'm sure that if Obi work had advanced further ATN would probably love to retain full ownership of Mt Webb as it has some fantastic exploration intercepts, such as :
"PKC024 - 246m@0.22%Cu, from 4m, incl 12m@1.1%Cu from 168m, and 2m @ 2.47%Cu from 36 m." and
"221 m @ 0.12% Cu, from 0 m to end of hole, in PKC021, incl 44 m @ 0.30% Cu from 66 m;
220 m @ 0.11% Cu, from 0 m to end of hole, in PKC022, incl 16 m @ 0.45% Cu from 188 m.
299 m @ 0.10% Cu, from 0 m to end of hole, in PKC017".

In due course as I believe it will play out, ATN is likely to have a large cashflow provider from Obi Island, and that would have been ideal to fund the ongoing exploration work at Mt Webb, but I think the different timelines will unfortunately cause the company to make a big decison with respect to Mt Webb.

Yea has now been drilled and based on ATN's comment recently it appears that the project has been downgraded and unlikely to continue within the portfolio.
 
Hi Beatle,
copper I agree has a strong future, with forecasted world shortages. Sounds like the announcement of a JV partner for Mt Webb can't be too far away, that will be a positive for the company. Too bad about the competing timeline with the development of Obi, but a nice problem to have I suppose, given the potential at Mt Webb.
Appreciating your research work on ATN.
 
Just thought i'd pop by and say hello - sorry Beatle I haven't been giving you much love lately. Took some time off over the Easter break - hope you and others had a good one.

Still sitting on ATN and liking the price action. Momentum is increasing in both the stock and the number of views (and posters!). Positive sentiment is always a wonderful thing :)
 
Hi KurwaJegoMac and Logique, really great to have a few others (including Mgm1a) also posting on ATN, even if its from time to time. It encourages me to keep posting too, but since I've been an ATN holder for a while now and intend to hold for a longer time when the extent of Obi becomes known to all, I guess I'm hooked anyway.

I'm a bit disappointed that we haven't already got that big piece of news out, but heartened that despite not getting it that the price has gone ok, and in fact if you're interested in seeing a more responsible chart I guess its healthy to have a slight pause, and it seems that yesterdays slight backward step will make the overall upward trend even more believable in the coming weeks. I have no doubt that it will go back up and re-test the 7.0 cents resistance in the next few trading sessions when the market becomes aware that the rig is ready to start drilling.

And whatever other news that ATN might surprise us with (positively!).

Go ATN, you know you can do it, in anticipation ...
 
Now why would they be doing an "investor" presentation if they weren't going to do a CR sometime.
Note the calculation of the 1Moz Target :)

I see the contractor invoved with Weda Bay - i found this

French Mining and metallurgical group, Eramet, continues to study the bankable feasibility of Weda Bay Nickel, Halmahera with its partners Mitsubishi Corporation and state miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM). Meanwhile, Eramet posted €454 million of net profit for the 2010 fiscal year.

The company expects annual output of 65,000 tons, under a twostage framework, first phase corresponding to 35,000 tons of nickel produced per year. Mining resources were again revised significantly upwards.
....

PT Weda Bay Nickel, member of Eramet, is based in Canada which managed the Weda project. The project is expected to cost around US$4 billion.

Nice neighbours even if isn't gold
 
Now why would they be doing an "investor" presentation if they weren't going to do a CR sometime.
Note the calculation of the 1Moz Target :)

I see the contractor invoved with Weda Bay - i found this

French Mining and metallurgical group, Eramet, continues to study the bankable feasibility of Weda Bay Nickel, Halmahera with its partners Mitsubishi Corporation and state miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM). Meanwhile, Eramet posted €454 million of net profit for the 2010 fiscal year.

The company expects annual output of 65,000 tons, under a twostage framework, first phase corresponding to 35,000 tons of nickel produced per year. Mining resources were again revised significantly upwards.
....

PT Weda Bay Nickel, member of Eramet, is based in Canada which managed the Weda project. The project is expected to cost around US$4 billion.

Nice neighbours even if isn't gold

with you there on the CR its only waiting for the drilling to start to prop up the price then they'll slide it in. Do they have capital arrangements for the development of processing gear which their timeline states will start now ?
 
Hi guys, good to see a couple of posts in the last days.

Just a comment on some of your points Mgm1a - I'm not sure what you had in mind regarding Weda Bay Nickel etc? Can you elaborate when you refer to the contractor being involved please?

With the suggestion on the CR, I don't think that its that soon actually. I spoke a few weeks ago with Tom re ATN financial position, and confirmed the company had sufficient funds in hand to carry out exploration over the following months, certainly sufficient to cover for the next 12 months exploration unless they ramp up the activity if the results justify it (in which case the share price will likely fly anyway!). The capex involved with the gravity equipment is not seen as a big ticket item, as they are looking at relatively low cost items that will allow gravity concentration of the gold, I understand there is no intention to bring in any higher cost milling or crushing equipment unless the project flies at a seriously higher level for the artisanal area.
(Note that ATN has got $3.5 million cash at the moment).

I'm disappointed that the drill rig has been delayed till around 7 May, another week again (seems to be getting bit of a habit!), so we shall see if its a correct estimate or not. Its no point especting it to happen though until we get the word from the company.

Fortunately Mgm1a, I understand that ATN is not held, at least in substantial holdings, by Matthews Capital nor Bank of America, so its probably not got the same reins holding it back like some other gold explorers we are aware of!
 
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