ATN - Ashburton Minerals

Just to correct an inaccurate comment made in my last post re ATN and trading days till Easter:

From tomorrow there are only 5 more trading days before Good Friday, therefore only 5 more trading sessions to go before a likely announcement that the drilling rig has arrived Obi Island and ready to commence drilling below the established goldfield developed by artisanal miners, to a depth of 200 metres.

In addition there are a few more deadlines to consider:
1. The Gen Mtg is on Tues 19 April at 11.00am Perth time, ie only 2 more trading sessions plus 4 hours to go (ie 1 hr today and 3 hrs Tues).
2. The VWAP to consider shares/share options to 2 members of the ATN board is in its third day, ie only 2 more trading days (plus 1 hr today) to go, ending Mon 18 April.

Both of these deadlines IMO suggest that there is only 2 days available to get shares before the "cat is let out of the bag" so to speak! After the VWAP I would expect that ATN announcements will be more positive in their spin! And with the knowledge that a few more trading days remain thereafter (from time of Gen Mtg until Easter), there is only a few more days to go before drilling annnouncements begin!

This suggests to me that ATN share price is likely to move higher from now on, after consolidating at its current level of around 5.9 - 6 cents.

ATN started strongly yesterday, but soon lost momentum and ended up down after is huge upward move the day earlier. But what has significantly changed in that extra day?

- We know there is a slight delay for when the drilling rig commences testing the already established goldfield on Obi Island,

- Its one day closer to when the Gen Mtg falls due next Tues (only 2 trading days to go) to enable the directors get set with share or option packages, thus clearing the way for expected positive announcements on ATN's activities,

- The closing of the VWAP for determining the exercise price of the option package (only 2 trading days to go).

And oh yes, we just happen now to be at a historic price for gold with it moving up some US$20/oz overnight!

My view is that we are unlikely to be at this price for ATN within the next few days, as a combination of the company being more predisposed to positive announcements from Tuesday, and the anticipation of the drill rig arriving at Obi Island and commencing its drilling in the following week after we arrive back from our holiday bliss:

Just remember that from Tuesday next week there is only 4 trading days (if we include Tues itself) to Easter Friday close (and traditionally Thursday before Easter will be a reduced trading session), thus by the time people arrive at work after Easter PLUS ANZAC Day, it will be Wednesday 27 April, the day of the drilling rig arrival on Obi Island, ready to commence drilling!

I don't believe that the huge trading volume on Wednesday (13 odd million shares) is a one day wonder, I think its indicative of pent up demand to be onboard ATN in readiness for when the action begins. And there is every likelihood we will have another day or 2 of that sort of action in the coming week as the date of rig arrival gets closer.

From my own personal standpoint, I'm not in ATN to get a short rise in price on anticipation of the rig arriving on the Island, I'm in ATN knowing that the drilling is targetting an already established goldfield that has drawn a considerable number of artisanal miners to the area, producing considerable gold of high grade that is winnable by gravity means (and averaging 16 g/t based on sampling of run of mine ore delivered for processing by the small scale miners) - this style and grade of gold mineralisation is exactly what made Gosowong within the same geological environment (and not so far away from Obi Island) a bumper deposit, with resources beyond 5 million ozs of high grade gold - its the type of deposit that the big mining companies prefer to target in their exploration models due to low cost of production and high gold resource potential.

ATN is moving up nicely with a bid at 6.3 cents, seems to me people are reticent to let go of stock at current prices - even around last sale price of 6.3 cents its dried up! Looks like 6.4 cents will be the next test . . .

(But honestly, unless you are a nano second share trader why would you sell at the current price knowing what is ahead in the coming weeks!!!).

beatle said:

(But honestly, unless you are a nano second share trader why would you sell at the current price knowing what is ahead in the coming weeks!!!).

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MMs could be trying to catch triggers. It's had a pretty good run recently so i'm sure there are a few people going to be caught on the upside.

KurwaJegoMac said:

MMs could be trying to catch triggers. It's had a pretty good run recently so i'm sure there are a few people going to be caught on the upside.

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Hi KurwaJegoMac, presumably you are out of the stock again? (Can you explain what you mean by "MMs could be trying to catch triggers.", I have no idea what that means (and what is an MMs?), but I assume your post is suggesting its going to fall in price from here?). I will of course disagree with you, for the various reasons I have put forward in the last few days. Above all, the fundamental reason that the project is one of the best raw gold projects, in an already proven gold province, with substantial following means that trading in and out of the stock might not be the best strategy!

And of course, I remain firmly invested in ATN and certainly have no reason to want to get out at this cheap level, I don't worry about the short term downs that might occur, I have patience, and I back my view based on fundamental judgement on the project. That's why I will hold it for a much longer run than technical traders who don't want to care about the fundamentals of the Obi project.

An interesting end to trading for ATN today - after slowly building its way up to 6.2 cents during the session, and testing 6.4 cents briefly, it was almost a stalemate in the last 20 minutes, until a bit of late buying took it towards 6.3 cents, then DUMP, 1.9 million shares were slammed from 6.2 cents all the way down to 5.9 cents, at 3.59 (plus 22 seconds) with less than a minute to go till matching up at the close! Not sure why someone would unload that many shares other than its probably one of those nanosecond traders (lol) who don't want (or can't afford?) to hold shares more than a split second. Anyways, its a way to get some more shares more cheaply at the open next Monday!

And remember, Monday coming is the LAST chance to get shares BEFORE the VWAP ends, and the following day is the Gen Mtg, which is likely to be the starting point for the company to become positive with its news announcements to follow on drilling of Obi Island! But since there were 7.1 million shares traded to day, at an average price of 6.1 cents I probably don't need to remind those in the market for ATN shares what is going on.

All I know is that I can't wait for the fireworks to begin, soon we will have ended the entre, and then starts the main course . . .

Have a good weekend all!

beatle said:

Hi KurwaJegoMac, presumably you are out of the stock again? (Can you explain what you mean by "MMs could be trying to catch triggers.", I have no idea what that means (and what is an MMs?), but I assume your post is suggesting its going to fall in price from here?). I will of course disagree with you, for the various reasons I have put forward in the last few days. Above all, the fundamental reason that the project is one of the best raw gold projects, in an already proven gold province, with substantial following means that trading in and out of the stock might not be the best strategy!

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Hi Beatle, no I am not out of the stock yet - still looks good from my T/A perspective. Besides, someone needs to keep you company on these forums ;P

Seriously though, I am still holding. What I was referring to was MMs = Market Makers. As you know, a lot of investors/traders use conditional stops - often based on volatility or areas of support or resistance. MMs can see an aggregated view of these orders and can therefore see if theres pent up demand/supply and can take advantage of it.

So lets just say there are a lot of conditional buys at .60, .61, .62 and a little at .63 and .64. The MM can see strong demand at levels .60-.62 and weak demand at .63-.64. The MM puts in a few buys of their own and pushes the bid to .60 - this in turn begins executing the .60 buy orders. The MM buys a little more on the back of the conditional buys being executed and the price is pushed to .61 and triggers the next wave of orders.

This starts a chain reaction with day traders and breakout traders jumping in due to the strong price action. The MM starts to sell off his holdings at .62 and makes sure he's out by .63/.64 as they are weak supply levels. Professional traders with a good eye on market depth do similar tactics - often termed as 'testing the market'

Thanks KurwaJegoMac, I’m most grateful for your explanation (and yes your company in here is very welcome, its an eerie thread at ATN, with lots of viewers – another 650 views this week - but rarely any other posting!). I’m also glad to know you're still in ATN - I remain firmly of the view that we're yet to see the main event with ATN play out, not just in the coming week but as the drilling activity progresses on Obi Island in the following weeks and once results are announced some months down the track.

Your explanation makes sense and seems like you were spot on with that dump of 1.9 million shares at the close, forcing the price down from 6.2 cents to 5.9 cents with less than 40 seconds before market close and matching began. Its hard to think of another reason why you'd sell ATN when clearly the demand is insatiable for the stock at present.

While I have already outlined the reasons in other posts why timing at present is very relevant, that may well be magnified at the open on Monday, not only for ATN but the whole market, based on latest financial news overseas:

1. Gold/silver markets were up strongly in the US, with gold up 0.9% to US$1,486/oz and silver up to US$43/oz;

2. Dow was up 56 pts (+0.46%) and S&P up 5.1 pts (+0.39%), and Dow Futures up 75 pts (+0.61%) and S&P Futures up 8.5 pts (+0.65%);

3. US economic/financial news being positive and no other issues seeming to develop throughout the world of any significance to affect markets negatively (at this stage!).

I think this trading environment is perfect for ATN to perform very well in the coming week, with the added bonus that we only have 4 (really 3 ½) trading days left before we go on a 5 day break for Easter/Anzac Day, then get back to work as ATN announces the drill rig has arrived on Obi and about to commence drilling.

ATN has had a fairly ordinary start this week, although it looked promising at the open - and I keep this in a relative sense, as its in fact up 3.39% at the moment (but as you will note I consider that dump the last trade last week as being artificial anyways!).

Now that the VWAP is almost set for the MD's option package and less than a day from the Gen Mtg, its unlikely we will see anything negative come out today in terms of news from the company. Will anyone be attending the meeting tomorrow, and can post anything mentioned that is not reported formally through the usual announcement that follows? (I wonder for instance if they will actually give a presentation of the project, in which case they will put out such a release prior to the meeting, probably tomorrow morning although late this afternoon is a possibility).

Now its up to ATN to stir the market . . .

ATN's release to the market a short while ago surprised me, and surprised me very pleasantly! I did expect a positive statement about the road ahead with drilling etc, but certainly didn't expect this fantastic confirmation of the earlier drilling results by BHP/Aneka Tambang. And the quoted mineralised intercepts give me more confidence with that future drilling outcome, viz:-

"9.15 m @ 26.25 g/t, in hole AOD 09, from 38.0 m
13.70 m @ 6.13 g/t, in hole AOD 10, from 39.4 m
2.20 m @ 15.20 g/t, in hole AOD 07, from 78.6 m".

But what I really find exciting is the following comment, which suggests that the main artisanal workings are not the only potential zone for significant mineralisation:-

"The Company has been unable to accurately confirm the location of these holes, there being some discrepancies in hole coordinates and, more importantly, azimuth." ....
.... "Hole collars have been located in the field and it is evident that in a number of cases the holes are located away from the main focus of current artisanal diggings and on some occasions have been orientated away from the zone of main workings. PT Obi Minerals targeted its drilling on the basis of the results of its soil sampling and trenching programmes, and without the benefit of active artisanal workings."

Its going to be an exciting time with the drilling ahead - and that should be reflected in positive statements from ATN in the coming weeks, exciting the market and pushing the share price up IMO.

Not sure whether I would describe the Release as a particularly exciting or positive statement, however, am watching the stock with great interest!

PT Cruiser said:

Not sure whether I would describe the Release as a particularly exciting or positive statement, however, am watching the stock with great interest!

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Thanks for the post PT Cruiser, good to know you are watching ATN at the moment.

Whilst I'm not sure whether you follow the fundamental information so much, I do get excited when I read those sorts of intersections, particularly with the thought that they may well be away from where there are artisanal workings. If you don't find that release as being positive, maybe you can share your thoughts as to why not? And of course I respect your view, even if I don't share it, thats the good thing about having an open forum such as ASF to compare views and discuss commonality and differences as well.

I guess I was just hoping for some more definitive news. So long as ATN can sort out discrepancies in their findings and further tests in these new areas prove what the report is suggesting, then it would certainly be a positive. I am holding ATN, but not in large quantities at this stage.

Thanks PT Cruiser for your view, lets hope (my) positive stance to this latest announcement translates into a shared view as the drilling proceeds.

I notice that ATN has just replied to an ASX query, which is a most strange sort of general letter seeking to ask why the share price has risen on increased volume over the recent past - its almost like a "slow" speeding ticket, lol! I could think of so many other companies that sort of question could be directed to, but little ATN got the query - very unusual, but of course an opportunity for ATN to give a bit more publicity to its Obi Island project.

The other part of the query related to the comment about the Chinese investment interest, whilst the MD was in China recently. I must admit that I also found it an interesting throw-away line in that previous announcement, and whilst the company did state there was no direct investment discussions underway with Chinese investors at the moment, I'm sure that could be a possibility in the future - particularly as they progress their processing requirements for the artisanal area!

The increase in gold price overnight might not be enough to have the gold explorers/producers in the market stave off a pull back, but for sure its an opportunity to get cheap shares if there is a rout!

Did someone attend the ATN Gen Mtg today, and if so was there anything of note discussed, other than the formal proceedings? I assume that ATN would not have made a technical presentation at the meeting other than what may have been released to the market over the past couple of weeks, otherwise it would have been prepared as an ASX release for the market, but it is possible that some technical information was discussed. Any post on this would be appreciated please...

ATN has held up quite well today knowing the general carnage on the market today, and in fact I was getting ready to buy some more ATN in the event that it fell much lower than where it has gone to. I may well still get some more . . .

With the Easter holidays almost upon us we have only a couple of trading sessions before ATN will likely have its drilling rig arrive on Obi Island and soon thereafter commencing its drilling program - although markets are very volatile at the moment, its likely that ATN share price will move positively once that news is confirmed - especially if the company can provide an update of that drilling as it progresses. If on the other hand ATN weakens, then I will personally be topping up!

Some late fireworks to ATN's share price is encouraging, up 0.5 cents (+8.6%)! I find it encouraging as it clearly demonstrates that the demand for shares, with all information now on the table, remains strong!

Next will be the main course, with the drilling due to commence within the next week with all drilling equipment expected to arrive Obi Island on 27 April.

well theres no justice in the world..my small holding here up 36% in 2 weeks and my other, bigger, gold holding that you know about beatle is up 26% over hugely longer time slot.

The trading is beyond the apparent depth..the buy depth not being backfilled but buyers peeling away at the sellers.

Regarding the ASX query yesterday..fits with my observation that this company attracts so many queries! Their casual comment about the Chinese interest in what the company was doing would not have been as naive as a comment made by you or I . . It was cleverly motivated at exciting market.

GL

Hi Mgm1a, its great to see you are still in ATN and enjoying the ride - I had assumed you were out after the last little flutter upwards, with no post recently!

As to your comment about the relativities of the returns Mgm1a, yes its hard to work it out, but it seems that is where the chartists have got it over us fundamentalists - in ATN's case its a never stoppable upward trend, therefore stick with the trend. (In the other case the trend is all over the shop, so its a much less predictable ride - BUT it WILL eventually take us higher).

As to the Chinese comment, yes I believe that where there is smoke, there is fire! I was particularly interested to note the urgent need for that buyer of 1 million shares to get his fill yesterday (its similar to the irrational bidding that I have seen with some other stocks that eventually got support from Chinese in some way!). He put the bid in place prior to the closing auction, and at (I think initially 6.2 cents - I'm getting so old now I am forgetting some details from time to time!), then he moved it to 6.3 cents once some of that on offer had been taken out (presumably by others), which took out some of his own bid then he moved it up to 6.4 cents at the auction, and some bigger offers matched his bid and he got his fill. I was surprised to see his urgent need to buy yesterday, clearly he didn't know what was going to happen to overseas and commodity markets, its as if he knew something was about to happen, so I am interested to see if some news comes out today, but surely thats unlikely.

BUT, I wonder if the reason for the MD's visit to china was twofold (or 3 fold!), for both looking at processing facilities for Obi, then to meet with some aggressive base metals company with regards to ATN's other asset at Mt Webb? (And at that meeting, if one occurred maybe they became aware of the Obi asset!). So thats just my wondering, nothing other than that, but since ATN is a speculator's paradise, surely we can speculate on such! It might be completely off the track, but its some fire added to the smoke we have observed.

As to investment in ATN for Obi, personally I believe its one of the most exciting RAW exploration plays around at the moment, as the potential uplift for the share price in the event of some huge hits in the upcoming drilling is massive, and the fact that such a large artisanal mining population has been supported by this goldfield suggests to me that the mineralised system is extensive, and that is also supported by the knowledge that the vein systems plus brecciation can be traced along structure for some kilometres!

But it is also considerable speculation, so you can't do your homework on it so easily and thoroughly like you can with our other mutual investment, Mgm1a.

From an uninformed shareholder holding on for dear life - what the heck is going on with ATN today?

Its share price just skyrocketed from 6.4 cents to 7.0 cents in a few minutes, then went back to 6.5 cents, all offers and bids nervously pulled and re-cast at various prices in between those limits.

Does someone know whats going on?