ASX Stock Pickers '06

[doctorj]

I'm looking for people interested in participating in a competition to pick half a dozen stocks - the winner being the one that achieves the highest percent return on their portfolio over the course of next year.

The reason being, it would seem we have some very talented (or lucky) stock pickers here and I think it would be interesting to see what they have their eye on next year. It would also be interesting to see how our new American posters fair against us on our home turf.

I would be happy to run the comp by updating a leaderboard each month (I will be overseas for feb and mar so might look for some help those months unless Joe can easily modify the existing stock comp software to automate it). The winner would receive a pat on the back.

If you're keen, post your 6 tips here before 1500 WST on 1/1/06. Equal amounts will be allocated to each stock and you cannot change during the year. No post requirements to enter, but only one entry per person.

Good luck!

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi Doc,

Please include us in your pickers' list, with:

AJL - BKP - IMU - MOG - MOS - NHE

Many thanks for your efforts .....

happy days

yogi

 

[woywoy]

Hi Doc,

Great idea for a tipping comp!! Let's hope there are lots of entries.

I'm going for CEO, FRE, NMS, TOX, BCL and COE.

Good luck to all!!

 

[son of baglimit]

havent you got another chat room to haunt woy woy.

as always you have taken all of mine, expect bcl of course.

i am surprised you didnt include MUL.

cheerio

 

[Dan_]

Here's a few wild guesses,

MOS, WEZ, LSG, CEY, RHT.....and i'll find another

 

[tarnor]

STX, CAZ, PRU, IMI, BTA, EMS

 

[sam76]

RBY, VSG, SBM, MMN, CUE, TRG

Cheers!

 

[etrader1]

Hi doc,

I'm new in the ASF but would be very interested to join in. Please include my half dozen picks:

BTA, SBM, BXP, DEG, BUY, and IRN.

Cheers!

 

[brisvegas]

Seeing this is basically a trading site i really cant see any advantage in traders making predictions 12 months out . whatever %age gain any prophet is likely to make any reasonable trader will beat hands down . certainly better gains to be made on a smaller time frame . the monthly thing is much better. fwiw


.............. pete

 

[doctorj]

Seeing this is basically a trading site i really cant see any advantage in traders making predictions 12 months out . whatever %age gain any prophet is likely to make any reasonable trader will beat hands down . certainly better gains to be made on a smaller time frame . the monthly thing is much better.

Ofcourse. It means nothing. Its meant to be a bit of harmless fun.

 

[tech/a]

I agree with bris.
All your doing is buy and hold for 12 mths.

Still if nothing else it will show that its a pretty stupid thing to do,particularly if the selection tanks.
Or in the case of many of these selections continues to tank.

Now if people who select their 6 are allowed to exit their selections when they feel necessary and re enter when necessary even to buy more---in otherwords trade their selections for a year (Their selections no others),then that would be worth logging into.Say $100K trading money as initial capital,how you allocate it upto you.You have to update your portfolio each week/fortnight or Month or be disqualified.

Biggest nett profit over the year wins.What do you think?
Why not make it some meaningful fun. I'll put up $500 as a prize to the first place getter.Any more donations?
One proviso that the winner discloses their method so we can all learn.

(Id allow entries upto the end of the first week of Jan give people sometime.)

 

[Profitseeker]

I would like BDG BGF CRS NWE CUO and EMS please.

 

[Profitseeker]

...each week/fortnight or Month or be disqualified.

Biggest nett profit over the year wins.What do you think?
Why not make it some meaningful fun. I'll put up $500 as a prize to the first place getter.Any more donations?
One proviso that the winner discloses their method so we can all learn.

WHat happens if the method is pure guess? Haha

 

[Knobby22]

OK, Now I am tempted -


Chemeq - Turnaround imminent.
Woodside - Good company, new gas field to open, major exploration taking place in South America and Libya. Though price doubled over the year, I(would expect another doubling if one of the explorations work.
CSL - Still under rated by the market. Plenty of upside still.
Redflex - Kicking goals with speed cameras.
Magna Pacific - Forgotten media stock with real promise.
Bemax - The cashflow is going to be fantastic this time next year.

I would have included Oxiana however the price has run up a lot lately.

If I am going to be up against traders then I want taxes and trading fees included in the equation assuming the average Aussie wage. Also they must announce their trades on the end of the day price. I will probably make two trades max. Also dividends are included.

This could be interesting.

 

[tech/a]

WHat happens if the method is pure guess? Haha

Guess is fine.

As a suggestion for simple rules.
(1) $50K starting Capital.
(2) All trades either in our out to be posted within the day of the buy or sell.
(3) All prices for entry and exit to be End of Day.
(4) All in the comp to keep and publish here their portfolio updated weekly or face disqualification.
(5) Maximum 5 stocks traded at any one time.Stocks only.You dont have to trade 5 you could trade 1 X $50K.
(6) You can buy sell hold or stay out of the market whenever you wish.
(7) Start date for the $500 comp plus any other donations (Perhaps second/third) 10/01/06
(8) Cheating disqualified (Ie Entering false buy and sell data.)
(9) Winners to disclose method so all can learn.
(10) Comp closes 1st trading day after Xmas 2006 EOD.
(11) Winner is the one with most capital less initial capital/ less fees set at $30 in $30 out for all.Dividends NOT included.
(12) No leverage or options/warrents.

Anything I have missed.
If there are less than 15 starters comp doesnt go ahead.

Doc I'm not trying to Hi jack your idea but for there to be any meaning I cant see the point in buy and hold only?
Anyway if the offer is seen as out of line then I'll bugger off.

 

[Profitseeker]

I like it.

 

[brisvegas]

now is it going to be allowable to short sell as well as go long . if so would it only be allowable to short sell top200 stocks . also need to clarify liquidity ie: sufficient volume at said prices to actually get a fill in realtime. can we set a target beforehand that if traded at with enough volume becomes an accepted trade rather than only taking closing prices . also in regards to declaring trade a deadline is required as hindsite trading of dual listed stocks could occur , especially those dual listed on LSE re BHP RIO HDR etc etc . also in regards to showing people methodology , is the requirement to do so ongoing through year or will a rundown at years end be enough . whilst im willing to give a rough idea of what i do im certainly not willing to lay it all on the line , for every edge a trader can get it needs to be maintained to a degree . this is an interesting concept but by the nature of it the possibility of it becoming cumbersome and time consuming for the one or ones adjudicating is there . one last question is will be listed company options be allowed . lets see what happens

............ pete


one last thing i forgot is the use of stop losses , will they be accepted as long as stated at entry as i trade with a stop most of the time

 

[RichKid]

This seems to be getting complicated, I thought the idea was just to pick six, forget em and then check at the end of the year, just because this is a forum comprised mainly of traders it doesn't mean that investors can't try their hand, some of us have long term (investor style) portfolios as well. Also rather than having ppl update every week or month it'll be easier to have a simple table as I assume doc was about to provide. doc, since you started this it'll be good to see what you agree on as otherwise ppl will be confused about the entry deadline and rules.

 

[tech/a]

Yes I agree if its complicated then it loses the fun factor.
Much better if its simple.

How about just being able to trade the 5 stocks that we originally pick,long only.
Also we can have then the same as what someone else picks,as we would all trade differently.

Entry and exit is Open and Close ONLY.

If you think that this is to hard just go back to Doc's original idea.
I'll still put up the $$s

 

[sam76]

This seems to be getting complicated, I thought the idea was just to pick six, forget em and then check at the end of the year, just because this is a forum comprised mainly of traders it doesn't mean that investors can't try their hand, some of us have long term (investor style) portfolios as well. Also rather than having ppl update every week or month it'll be easier to have a simple table as I assume doc was about to provide. doc, since you started this it'll be good to see what you agree on as otherwise ppl will be confused about the entry deadline and rules.

I like the original idea. A lot of us "investors" can't monitor/change on a weekly basis.

I'm not adverse to Tech's idea as well.

What about having two comps?